Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
On this Tuesday at Danonymous Racing, we’ve got FREE picks & analysis from Turf Paradise from Rob MacLennan (@RobMacASD)!
Rob served as the track handicapper at Assiniboia Downs, near Winnipeg, over the summer, and we’re happy to have him as part of the Danonymous Racing crew. He’ll be providing analysis of the racing at Turf Paradise all winter long.
Take it away, Rob!
Race 1: Selection: #8 Big Tuff Z (10/1 ML). The card kicks off with maiden 2-year-olds on the grass and a field of nine are signed on. The race lacks a real solid favorite as the field is basically unknown on the grass. Bullet Express ran second last time on the grass but was not a threat to the winner. Factored In makes sense on the grass, The Googler has a pedigree worth checking out on the grass but I am going to try Big Tuff Z. He was ambitiously spotted on debut in the Shakopee Juvenile. He showed little that day, but he must have shown signs to warrant placement in a stake at first asking. He did show a little bit of early speed and now gets to stretch out off a number of good works and gets to take a drop in class. I don’t think the morning line will hold up, but you have to respect that Ramgeet goes here instead of The Googler, and the bullet November 7th really jumps out.
Race 2: Selection: #6 Shred the Rules (2/1 ML). Shred the Rules returned to the races off an extended layoff last time to run 4th after missing the break and rushing up. He faded down the lane , but is now drawn outside in a race that is lacking pace. Second off the layoff with high percentage rider Scott Stevens jumping aboard it should be a good spot for him.
Race 3: Selection: #7 Bandido Gold (15/1 ML). I think this race is a total dogs breakfast and the race does lack speed, so I wanted to take a shot that Bandido Gold could make the lead and possibly get brave. Throw out the race last time against quarter horses and he does have good speed and gets the services of Garcia today, who is a competitive rider at Turf Paradise. A live longshot play.
Race 4: Selection: #5 Escalante (3/5 ML). Shipping in from California, getting the turf for the first time should be the answer for this Bernardini filly. She should overmatch many of these foes in here. She has been competitive for MSW in Southern California and Godolphin now ships her over here to break her maiden for value purposes.
Race 5: Selection: #4 Wild in Private (2/1 ML). Dropping in class and cutting back to a sprint should set up well for this mare. The race does not have a ton of early speed in it and Wild in Private if she reverts to her good form from New Mexico. This mare doesn’t need the lead either though, and if she runs her “A” race it should be good enough.
Race 6: Selection: #1 Passed Due (8/1 ML). This nw2y claimer brings together a wide variety. Flat Gone and Zooks both look like live contenders but I am intrigued by Passed Due in this spot. This is by far the cheapest he has ever been in and his last sprint for 6250 at Arapahoe was good enough to win this. He’s had some time off, he should be able to sit close and stalk. He hasn’t won in a long time and that is a concern, but the drop to the bottom could solve his problems, though I wish he was in the NW1Y condition like he belongs.
Race 7: Selection: #7 Step on the Gas (2/1 ML) Claimed last time for $5,000 this speedster should be able to control the race on the front end. He’s got a second in his career on the lawn and he fits well in this condition, especially with a number of these horses wanting to run from well back in the field. Erick Lopez keeps the call from his last start where he was run down by a Diodoro dropper and now in his second start off the short layoff and first off the claim he should be very tough to beat.
Race 8: Selection: #7 Street Connection (10/1 ML). This speedy filly finds a field really lacking pace and she battled last time out in quick fractions. I think she will be forwardly placed, and could take this field a long way. She also will be a square price in a field where it is hard to get behind the favorites. I look to Street Connection as a horse who is in a barn that does strike with the occasional price winner to be worth a shot in the nightcap.
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