Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, November 14, 2016
It may be a Monday, but the action doesn’t stop on Danonymous Racing: we’ve got FREE picks & analysis from Turf Paradise from Rob MacLennan (@RobMacASD)!
Rob served as the track handicapper at Assiniboia Downs, near Winnipeg, over the summer, and we’re happy to have him as part of the Danonymous Racing crew. He’ll be providing analysis of the racing at Turf Paradise all winter long.
Take it away, Rob!
Race 1: Selection: #5 You Better Beware. (2/1 ML) This 870 yard dash brings back a number of horses from the same race on October 23rd. I thought a couple of horses in the field has easy trips. The abundance of speed with Hail Storm, Tom Kha and Cruisen in the field led me to take You Bettor Beware who can sit just off and pounce, especially off his wide trip last time as he was one of the horses who did not have an easy trip.
Race 2: Selection: #6 Irish Lass. (15/1 ML) A maiden optional on the grass features a heavy favorite in Dancer’s Notes who might be worth taking a shot against. I am going to take a flyer on Irish Lass. She makes her second career start, on debut at Arapahoe she showed a little bit of speed before backing up in a race that had an open lengths winner. Now she comes back on the grass with a pedigree that could suit it being by Paddy O’Prado out of the mare Seefin a winner on the grass in England and the producer of a couple winning foals.
Race 3: Selection: #5 Peppermint Kitty (6/5 ML) I lacked a creative opinion on this race and ended up thinking that Peppermint Kitty will either win the race or run last. I leaned to the thought she would make the front end and just go. She gets to avoid Succesfulpocket today and should be able to control the race.
Race 4: Selection: #4 One for My Baby (3/1 ML) This is a Diodoro trainee dropping, but surprisingly not all the way to the bottom. This colt showed speed off the layoff at Santa Anita before tiring, last time he got a wide trip against a repeat winner and was put on the shelf after the race. Now he comes into the race and should be the speed of the race. The Diodoro barn is so powerful with these kinds of horses, especially given the fact if the barn hated this horse they very easily could have ran him for Mdn 5000.
Race 5: Selection: #5 Saturdaynitelights (5/2 ML) I thought Saturdaynitelights could sit a very nice trip in a race that does have a good amount of speed. He had a troubled trip last time on the stretchout at Canterbury, comes back for a barn having a good start to the meet, he reunites with Scott Stevens and he figures to get a great run right into the race. I didn’t know what to do with Carlot Cowboy in the race, is he in the race to fill for Unstoppable Colby, or does the Diodoro barn who was recently reunited with this horse like him enough to run him for 20,000 now off the private purchase, layoff and good works. If you look back the barn did have him for a start in January. Maybe an interesting horse to watch the tote board for.
Race 6: Selection: #2 Jeteffect (15/1 ML). This Gio Ponti colt debuted for Maiden Special weight at Fair Grounds sprinting on the turf. He lost all chance at the break and has now been off since March. The race doesn’t appear to be all that tough, and I was willing to take a shot that this horse could run a lot better with more ground and a less eventful trip. I do not think the morning line will hold up, but you have to respect and use these kinds of horses especially in multi race wagers.
Race 7: Selection: #10 Brave Julian (3/1 ML). Brave Julian looks to be one of the major players in this five furlong dash. He comes out of a race that had some legitimately fast horses such as Artistic Venture in it, now he faces less speed and hopefully can get away from the gate faster. The barn knows how to win and for a dash the race did not come up that quick early. I’m banking on the fact he is going to run back to his New Mexico form rather than his Phoenix form from last time.
Race 8: Selection: #3 Citizen Sam (6/1 ML). Citizen Sam drops in class off a grass try that was not successful. This horse showed some ability sprinting though, and now he drops to the bottom and faces the easiest company he has ever seen. The favorites in the race are worth playing against and Citizen Sam has reasons to run a much better race today especially if you ignore the two route races recently and even the race against open 10,000 claimers which is much tougher than this race.
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