Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
On Wednesday, we’re headed back out to Saratoga, where we kick off week five of the meet with FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from debuting guest handicapper Ryne Olsen (@Ryne_Olsen).
We thank Ryne for his writeup today. As you’ll note, it’s extremely thorough and well informed. Give Ryne a follow on Twitter when you get a chance and good luck if you’re playing along! Take it away, Ryne…
Race 1: Allowance Optional Claiming $30,000. 4yo and up. 2 and 3/8 Miles (Hurdle)
#6 Lune DE Caro has posted back to back victories both from well off the pace for a barn that is overdue to get on the board and that usually excels at the Spa. #4 Orchestra Leader will set the pace and be involved early on. Switches to Sean McDermott 3rd start after a layoff (improving factor to put her over Fantastic Song this time) following two runner up finishes. #3 Fantastic Song will sit on the hip of Lune DE Caro and hope to close even better then she did last time from 11 lengths back with the additional ground here.
#6 – Lune De Caro (7/5)
#4 – Orchestra Leader (3/1)
#3 – Fantastic Song (5/2)
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight. 2yo. Six Furlongs. (Dirt)
#7 Inside Straight is a second time starter for Todd Pletcher. Lost to favorite Sudden Surprise who wired the field in the slop first time out. Should show a vast improvement on the dry surface, slop may have not been his forte. #5 D’Funnything is a second time starter for Steve Asmussmen, who has excelled on the dirt at the Spa over the last 5 years going 8-20 in these starts. #4 Undersheriff should be involved again here, as last time out he ran a very good race but was disqualified for a hard ride outside down the stretch.
#7 – Inside Straight – (3/1)
#5 – D’Funnything – (5/1)
#4 – Undersheriff – (6/1)
Race 3: Stakes. 2yo Fillies. 5 ½ Furlongs (Turf)
#1 Celestial Sighting has already captured a win at this meet 16 days ago but it was against an inexperienced group. She’s really hard to ignore with the way Irad is riding and the only horse in the race with a turf win. Should get a great setup and pace, the only flaw would be the rail position. #2 Bruised Orange is one of two Wesley Ward runners in the race. Went to the Royal Ascot and competed against some of the best, though was really no where to be found. Showed speed and on turf that’s always a positive. Will set or sit near the pace. #6 Laxfield Road is the other Wesley Ward runner in the race. Though some would say this distance suits her better then the other Ward entry, I would disagree. Should sit right next to Bruised Orange entire trip.
#1 Celestial Sighting – (4/1)
#2 Bruised Orange – (2/1)
#6 Laxfield Road (5/2)
Race 4: Claiming 25,000, 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Turf)
#3 Asperites drops back down to the right level where she looks more effective. Has faced much tougher horses and if given the same trip as last time out at Churchill could be a runaway. Mike Maker’s statistics with starters going 2ndtime following the claim doesn’t make any other horse look more promising to compete either. #12 Bargaining Table looks like a bad choice originally on paper, but when MTO’S are removed, ends up not having such a bad position out of the gate. #2 Rhythm Queen have seen her live at Monmouth. Has the opportunity to be involved here if the pace is right. Failed to catch the leader in a jockey asking chase last time out.
#3 Asperites – (9/5)
#12 Bargaining Table – (5/2)
#2 Rhythm Quenn – (5/1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight. 2yo. 5 ½ Furlongs (Turf)
Toughest race to select on the card in my opinion. #7 Manhattan Dan son of Big Brown showed his turf ability in his first try at Belmont. Continues to set a great pace and has been game gate to wire each time. #1 Light Brigade debuts for the always dangerous Chad Brown. This profitable debut barn currently has the best turf ranking at Saratoga. #5 Argot I have to give the horse one more shot as struggling Julien Leparoux made some questionable moves last time out. If those moves differ slightly, was probably victorious, would hope for those changes here if the same closing trip is granted.
#7 Manhattan Dan – (6/1)
#1 Light Brigade – (4/1)
#5 Argot – (6/1)
Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming $62,500. 3yo and up. 1 and 1/8 Miles (Dirt)
#8 Hereditary has finished first in both his two turn starts. The lack of speed in the race, a clean break from the gate, the recent layoff and the move back to two turns will all help but I’m just not sure his odds come post time make him all that intriguing of a bet. #5 Street Babe has had a significant amount of time off after 3 really brutal races to say the least. Usually I am far away from these types of horses but Dilger is 24% with dirt starters returning from 45-90 days rest, so I have play the barn statistics here and think Street Babe may be game for at least this one. #4 Noble Moon has faced tougher competition and lands in a much softer spot here. In the last two out chased late but was second best both times. With the softer competition in this one, may be able to sit closer and not exhaust speed going extra wide to close like in previous trips.
#8 Hereditary (2/1)
#5 Street Babe (10/1)
#4 Noble Moon (7/2)
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight. 2yo. Six Furlongs. (Dirt)
#10 Fish Trappe Road chased a Todd Pletcher first timer around the track in the slop last time out. Was second best but both beat the rest of the pack by 10 lengths. Has extensive racing experience compared to the rest. Draws the outside post with proven speed, next to speed, add blinkers and has the ability to close at anytime from there. Will be extremely tough to beat, just looking for exacta prices at this point. #7 Love That Jazz will look to stalk the pace on the outside with Fish Trappe Road, Castellano is on for the ride. #1 Get Jets basically a trainer, workload and jockey selection.
BEST BET: #10 Fish Trappe Road (5/2)
#7 Love that Jazz – (5/1)
#1 Get Jets – (3/1)
Exacta Longshot: #9 Core Portfolio – (10/1)
Race 8: Starter Allowance $50,000. Fillies and Mares 3yo and up. 1 and 1/16 miles
#9 Khaleesi Kat dominated the field on opening day, though softer competition then what she will be facing today. I still think the race is wide open and she adds blinkers and lasix. Will be a square price, I like the opportunity for a repeat. #5 Sylvia T was live last time out finishing 3rd. The book fails to mention she ran with the solid pace and then was caught in traffic due to a pull up midway down the stretch. The ever so dangerous trainer Rudy Rodriquez should make this horse a threat early and often. #10 Megan’s Muse stretches out for trainer John Terranova who has done well with Eric Cancel abroad. My only concern is that if she looks to get the same trip as Sylvia T (which is the way she ran last time) she finishes second best to her.
Live Longshot Winner #9 Khalessi Kat – (15/1)
#5 Sylvia T (5/2)
Live Longshot #10 Megan’s Muse – (12/1)
Race 9: Allowance. Fillies and Mares 3yo and up. 1 and 3/18 miles (Inner Turf)
#8 Trophee comes off her two best efforts thus far and has also been favored come post time in all six starts. The last two efforts show me improvement and having 2x Arc de Triomphe winner Treve as a half-sister is an obvious positive. A three turn marathon for a very successful long distance barn may just be what she needs. #3 Rock Me Mama drops down in class after facing much too tough last time out, she ran well before that graded stakes race and would seem to be a factor as a mid pack closer here. #2 Gotachancetodance competition has been weaker but she has won her last two which could just be a sign of improvement. Is in fact the daughter of English Channel so maybe the additional length meets the improving factors for a score here.
#8 Trophee (5/2)
#3 Rock Me Mama (7/2)
#2 Gotachancetodance (4/1)
Race 10: Claiming 25,000. 3yo and up. 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
#8 Groupthink comes in on a sizable class drop while showing improvement. Hails from the Chad Brown barn where he has won at a 42% clip since 2014 route to sprint. After 3 second place finishes going 7 furlongs, today seems to me like a winners circle day. #7 Jeter has finished in the money the last four times out. Has been in these same type of races where he is faster then every single horse in this race but seems to setup awkwardly sometimes when he is ready to pounce for the speedy close. Not sure which we get today. Either way, if you’re looking for someone that will put you ON THE BOARD, you have to include Jeter. Plus, it’s my dog’s name! #10 Street Swag comes into this race with time off where that has shown to help in the past. Draws a favorable outside position where he can choose when to get going either inside or outside of Jeter.
2015 Saratoga Stats: 31.6% Winners, 64.8% On The Board
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