Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Friday, September 2, 2016
On Friday, we’re headed out to Saratoga. We’re thrilled to welcome back our friend and returning guest handicapper Mark DiLorenzo Jr. (@MarkDiloJr) with FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS for the entire card.
Mark is our lead New York circuit and Gulfstream handicapper. Mark is a great guy and an extremely knowledgeable horseplayer. He has had a very solid Saratoga meet and continues with his selections on Friday. We encourage you to follow Mark on Twitter, when you get a chance.
Take it away, Mark…
Giddy UP!!! It’s the final weekend of the SPA and I’m more excited than ever. Today marks the first time NYRA offers a late Pick-5. Use my thoughts with your own and print some money this Labor Day weekend.
Race 1: EARLY PK5 single alert
On Top: #1 Aix En Provence 5/2: I love a good claim back. Mr Gullo lost this 8 yo mare in June and brings her back today in the opener. When he had her she was faster on the sheets. Against this weak low level claimer group, I look for this one to win with ease.
Race 2: 8/ 10,7,1
On Top: #8 Weekend Hottie 5-1: This 4yo did draw in yesterday, and that ended up being a good thing for Weekend Hottie. Two back she was slightly better than Bareeqa who won the 6th yesterday, off of a big trainer change. Today she faces a softer field as the Brown runner to her outside is the only other logical win contender in this race, who will be 8/5.
Under: #10 Munchkin Money: will be odds on and is fast. Got caught behind horses last time out, but gets a tough post, and isn’t 3 lengths better than anyone in here for me to be confident in at 8/5. #7 Sneaky Fudge Face is going to get sent to the lead, and in a race I don’t see a ton of pace is a must use underneath. #1 OK by Me is the other that might show speed, and is a must use underneath as he might walk on the lead, as I see this far too often in NY.
Race 3: 9/6,5
On Top: #9 Snow Trouble 8-1: I have against a few bias track,s back during the GP meet, which makes him interesting. But that was when he was trained by Pletcher. Last time out he ran vs MUCH BETTER on a big stakes day at Penn National. His last sheet number fits and I like this one at a price.
Under: #6 Dujac 8/5: have to use anything Brown sends out on your pick-5 but over a year layoff for a claimer usually is a toss for me. #7 Matador ran a BIG sheet number moving to turf two back. Is also a must use for me on pk5.
Race 4: 1,2,8,9
Lots of horses to use in here if playing the pick-5. Here is who I would narrow it down to. #1, behind slow pace last time. #2 big new top last out, could bounce, but a 3yo, and could pair top that can win. #8 Gelding this horse should help and could pop. #9 might be the one to beat getting the cutback in distance.
Race 5: 6/ 2
On Top: #6 Marabea 2-1: Is facing a soft group in here and the drop down should let this one clear. Her sheet numbers are in the same ballpark as a few in here though so won’t single early.
Under: #2 Belle Et Bete: I had at 11-1 last time out. I don’t love her at the 3-1 I will get tomorrow but I like horses coming off turf wins and she fits here.
HERE IT IS…FINALLY…a LATE PK5 at NYRA. I can only hope it sticks. With west coast money and the field size of NYRA late races, this could be the best wager in the country!
Race 6: 3/4,2
On Top: #3 Take a Stroll: Kathy Ritvo has been waiting awhile in Saratoga for this one to go. You won’t get 12-1 as the word is out, but I’ll be betting in the 5/6-1 range.
Under: #4 Orecchiette 7/2: Pletcher is better on dirt first time out but this one has tons of win early pedigree, and the dam won FTO. #2 Bellavais is another that has been working out well and has big time turf pedigree.
Race 7: 2/1
On Top: #2 Wonder Gal 7/5: Only two horses in here. Splitting hairs but I’ll go with Wonder Gal. At first glance she might look like she doesn’t like Saratoga, but those two races were in a G1 and G2. Rumor is she has been working great.
Under: #1 First Service: This 4yo likes the Saratoga surface and is in a nice spot here. Depending on the price at post time I could play this one to win as she could get loose on the lead.
Race 8: 3 /10 6
On Top: #3 Goodbye Sorrow is the one to beat. Should get to the lead without much effort and stay there. Her last race was on the front end of a slower pace, only reason I’m not singling.
Under: #10 Gagaoveryou: Danny Gargan was cold earlier in the meet but his runners have heating up, and he had a nice turf win yesterday with a horse that was new to his barn. I can see a similar performance today from a big price with a nice post. #6 Sunrise Kitty couldn’t get by #3 Goodbye Sorrow last time out. Maybe he can get a better trip and clear today?
Race 9: 4/2
On Top: #4 Good Luck Gus 5-1: I can see this 4yo colt tripping out in today’s feature. The inside is the speed and I know Javier Castellano will go to the rail to save ground then make one big run late, as this horse loves to do. Though he lost by 4 lengths last time out to Wake up in Malibu, he ran just as fast a sheet number, and that one turn mile and a sixteenth run at Belmont is Malibu’s style, not Gus’s style.
Underneath: #2 Wake Up in Malibu: Charlie Baker is having such a great meet, this one is a must use. I am afraid this one wants to go one turn at Belmont but couldn’t pass up this purse.
Race 10: 9/ 11,1,7,2
On Top: #9 Means 10-1: This 3yo, now gelding, is definitely a turf horse. Adding the talented bug boy Jomar Torres, I see this 3yo getting sent early and staying there vs a soft field of maiden claimers.
Underneath: #11 Rediscover 5/2 If this one draws is in a must use!! If you are spreading deeper the Chad Brown horses are also must uses, but I also really like #1 Twenty Four Seven that switches into the Gargan barn.
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