Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Friday, July 24, 2015
It’s Opening Day at Saratoga! We’re obviously pumped for the start of the meet and thrilled to be able to offer FREE Picks & Analysis all weekend long (including Monday) from Twitter’s own #ECS members. We kick off on Friday with selections and analysis from Gene McCloskey (@Giacomo421). Take it away, Gene…
Once again, I’d like to thank my main man and personal friend, Mr. Dan-O, for the return invite. As most of you already know, Dan and I become friends through twitter → #IPutTheGENEInDegenerate, #JERKS, #ECS (love MY #ECS Family), #BlameMikeyForEverything, #LetItRide. Dan originally asked me to write for his site back in February of 2013 and we have been friends since. It is truly an honor to know the great person he is. I want to personally thank him for all he does for US with his website and for all that he does for the game we all love: Horse racing! I can’t wait to get up to Saratoga later in the summer so we can hang out and have some fun!
This will be my second year in a row throwing darts at the PP’s for Opening Day at Saratoga! Opening Day was full of 3rd and 4th place finishes for me last year, so we didn’t make a bundle. I did find my analysis from that day and wanted to share this from race 3 on Opening Day 2014:
“R3: Fashion Alert (BEST BET) wins at a VERY short price. I will use Take Charge Brandi for 2nd (love me some Giant’s Causeway second out and going longer – she will also be on my watch list for the future) and then Tulira’s Star 3rd.”
I did hit that $4 triple (hahaha) but we all know what Take Charge Brandi did in the Breeders Cup… you would think that I would actually listen to myself!!!
For those of you who personally know me, I am a very streaky player who has his ups and downs. I am not a full time player and I do not do this for a living. I play because I love the game, the action and all the fun that goes along with horse racing. I base a lot of my selections on hunches/ theories/ educated guesses and sometimes by looking at the Form and handicapping. I try to think outside the box so I can come up with a few horses each race that will hit the board at good value. I try not to bet a lot of chalk and I always watch the board for early money down – especially at Saratoga – so please keep that in mind when reading.
After doing my homework for Saratoga Day 1, I feel that Dallas Stewart is going to have a solid first day at the meet. His horses in R2 and in R6 have sneaky workout patterns and I am going to bet they both run very well today. Besides that, I have a few 12-1ML’s included in my selections and 20-1ML top pick in R5. I’m personally going to use $250 bankroll for today’s card (it is DAY 1!) so I will include some of my bets with my selections. I am hoping we can string a few together and get lucky. Thanks for reading and feel free to talk to me at the track or on twitter anytime. See you all in the Winners Circle!
Best Bet but NO VALUE – R4, #7 – Positively Regal, 2-1ML
Best Bets with POSSIBLE VALUE – R7, #1 The Tea Cups, 8-1ML & R8, #5 – Manhattan Mischief, 12-1ML
SUPER Longshot Play of The Day – R5, #4 – Reversiontithemean 20-1ML
For someone who just said he does not bet a lot of chalk, I find R1 to be very formful. I am going to keep it simple and use #3 Beyond Empire on top, #5 Spa Raven for second and #2 Groupthink for third. I also think #1 Royal Posse can get a piece.
My top pick is #4 Lady’s First, 10-1ML. This is one of two Dallas Stewart horses that I really like today. I am going to use him on top followed by #1 Lemon Liqueur, #2 Flatware and #5 Argyle Girl. I will watch the board and more than likely I will play $15 win/place on Lady’s First and a few small exacta boxes with those listed.
This is the second race that I also found to be formful on the card. I will not get fancy and use the #1 Dacoma on top, followed by #7 Khaleesi Kat and then #12 Weekend Hottie. I think any one of these three horses can win in this spot.
#7 Positively Royal (Best Bet but NO VALUE) win continue his winning way. I will use 7/ 6 1 8.
My top pick is #4 Reversiontothemean (SUPER Longshot Play of The Day), 20-1ML. This horse has works at The Spa and she can win at the distance. I will use 4 / 5 7 8. I will play $8 across the board on the #4 and also a few small exacta boxes with all listed.
#3 Ready For Chianti (12-1ML) is my top pick here and the second Dallas Stewart horse I really like today. I am going to use 3 / 2 6 8. I will bet $15 win/place on the #3 and small exacta boxes with those listed.
My top pick is #1 The Tea Cups (Best Bet with POSSIBLE VALUE), 8-1ML. This horse has a win over the turf at Saratoga and fired very fresh last out. I think he is well spotted here and already in very good form. I will use 1 / (13) 6 10 12 and depending on opening odds, I’d like to make a solid $25 win/place bet on the top choice.
In this race (and I’m not sure why), I’m loving the #5 Manhattan Mischief (Best Bet with POSSIBLE VALUE), ML 12-1. Maybe it’s the name? I will definitely play $10 win/place and use 5 / 3 1 2 in small exacta boxes.
#12 Partisan Politics is my top choice. I will use her over the 2 10 9 and 1. I really like the value in the 1 & 2, so I will box em’ all up in a few exactas and triples.
THE FINALE, which is a real doozy… My dart landed on #11 Howaboutwe, ML 8-1. I will use 11 / (16) 13 14 4. Depending on the opening odds, I would like to bet this horse to win. If we get double digits, win/place will work too.
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