Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, October 30, 2016
On Sunday, we’re headed back out to Del Mar where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from returning guest handicapper Andrew Rdesinski (@variousprod215).
Andrew has put together a writeup that covers each race on today’s card. We appreciate his time and effort. When you get a moment, go ahead and give him a follow on Twitter!
Take it away, Andrew…
I’m back handicapping for Dan again, Sundays at Santa Anita. My name is Andrew “Various” Rdesinski. I’ve been going to the races since I was an infant and I learned to read by reading the forms. I grew up being Kendrick Carmouche’s number one fan, and I’ve been a friend of his since his early days at Parx. Nowadays, I play tournaments and am a casual bettor that loves to handicap. Enough said, let’s jump into the Sunday card at Santa Anita.
MULTI RACE WAGERS
EARLY PICK 5 50 cent Wager RACES(1-5)- 2/3/5-2/3/5-1/6-8-2/6=$18
$2 PICK 6 RACES (4-9)- 4/6/8-2/6-2-6/8-2/4/5-2= $72
LATE PICK 4 50 cent WAGER RACES (6-9)- 2-2/6/8-2/4/5-2/4=$9
RACE 1- MSW 1 MILE TURF 2 YEAR OLDS PURSE 52,000.
# 5 Odyssey Explorer ML 10/1
# 3 Cut ML 2/1
# 2 Van Cortlandt ML 7/2
In a race full of unproven first time starters and just a couple of horses with experience, I had to go with a colt with a race under his belt as my top selection. #5 Odyssey Explorer is my top selection. He ran a decent race in his first start on his young career and showed promise in my opinion. He didn’t break that well which led to him so far behind, but he ran a bang up race to earn 5th. I see him bouncing back and showing improvement. #3 Cut is trying turf for the first time today. With two races under his belt over the dirt at 5 1/2 furlongs, trying turf today and stretching out will be a difficult task possibly. With good connections, and a decent pedigree, this colt might be able to prove himself on the turf as well as the dirt. #2 Van Cortlandt has two starts over the turf at 1 Mile. He is coming out of the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes race where he had no chance in and was put in that spot way to quickly and way too early. Bouncing back and becoming a gelding might be a beneficial angle for this first time gelding and could help him show improvement.
RACE 2- MCL $30,000, 1 MILE 1/16TH DIRT TWO YEAR OLDS PURSE $21,000
# 2 Kenzou’s Rhythm ML 9/5
# 5 Jack the Closer ML 9/2
# 3 Proud of Our Kids ML 2/1
In this very weak field of maiden claimers, I went with the morning line favorite. #2 Kenzou’s Rhythm, is my top selection simply because I feel like this gelding wants to stretch out and run at this distance. Phil D’Amato is also profitable when it comes to going from sprint to route at 25% through 65 starts, and a ROI of +19%. #5 Jack the Closer is a confusing gelding. He ran well in his second start and looked like he wanted to stretch out, but this last start showed no effort at all after being steadied early. If he goes back to that 2nd start he could prove himself today. #3 Proud of Our Kids, is a very lackluster colt based off of his first 3 starts, yet I think this horse could get in the money with ease when it comes to this field. After having two bad trips in his last two starts and still finishing 4th, I can only wonder what he will do at this distance getting a clean trip.
RACE 3 CLAIMING $25,000, 6 FURLONGS DIRT 3YO PURSE $29,000
# 1 Pedro Cerrano ML 5/1
# 6 Jes Jaa ML 5/1
# 3 Bolitar ML 4/1
In a small but very solid field of 3yos in for a $25,000 tag, I gravitated towards the #1 Pedro Cerrano. I am just going to say it now, that you can put a big line through this geldings last race. With a stumbled start he could never get into his front running near the pace run style and ended up finishing 7th. If you get rid of that race and just focus on his 3 other races, you see a very solid gelding that has proved himself while being lightly raced. I think he goes back to those starts and improves if he gets a clean start, and could win at a solid price. #6 Jes Jaa, is a solid 3yo and likes to sit right off the pace. With a lot of early speed in this race to sit behind, look for this 3yo to run them down in the stretch. #3 Bolitar is has great connections and is a very solid colt. After having a bad effort in his last start, but the 4 starts before that one, were all very impressive. With the ability to rate in a field filled with speed, I will expect this horse to chase down the leaders and possibly run away with this race.
RACE 4 AOC 6 1/2 FURLONGS DOWNHILL TURF F&M 3YO & UP $53,000
# 8 Summer Lady ML 4/1
# 6 Algorhythmic ML 7/2
# 4 Paschalitsa ML 6/1
This AOC is filled with first time turf runners and that made it a lot more easy for me when it comes to finding horses that like turf and especially the downhill turf course. #8 Summer Lady has experience over this course and has down fairly well over this course. With some early speed but the ability to rate as well, I will look for this race to be won or lost through this filly. #6 Algorhythmic won her only race off her career over this course and is cutting back to this distance again and could do well with this post position. #4 Paschalista only has one race on turf and weakened late, and looks as if cutting back in distance should help. This filly could easily win it all if she likes the distance.
RACE 5- CLAIMING $18,000 6 1/2 FURLONGS DIRT 3YO & UP $16,000
# 2 Nextdoorneighbor ML 4/5
# 6 Finallygotabently ML 5/2
# 5 Fooled Again ML 5/1
This field is one of the weakest in my opinion on the card. With that being said, I think the two favorites will run 1-2. My top selection is #2 Nextdoorneighbor and he will be the heavy favorite and rightfully so. He won last time out at SA in the same type of field so I won’t be surprised if he does it again today. #6 Finallygotabently is the second ML favorite and this gelding also won last time out but at Del Mar. With some sustained running style in a field full of Quarter Horses stretching out I won’t be surprised at all if he can close and win with ease. #5 Fooled Again is a gelding who does well over at EmD but when he steps up to more elite tracks he runs a very underwhelming race, but in a field full of underwhelming horses, I can see him getting a piece of the money.
RACE 6- MCL $75,000, 1 MILE DIRT, 3YO & UP, $32,000
# 2 Zealous Tale ML 6/1
# 1 Uninvited ML 5/2
# 4 Is Trevor Clever ML 8/1
This Maiden Claiming race is wide open to me and is a pretty good field in my opinion as well. I went with #2 Zealous Tale and that is because of the face that he likes the distance and is a closer. With very good connections, experience, and improvement over each race, I can see this gelding breaking his maiden today. #1 Uninvited is a 11 race maiden with being in the money 7 of those races. I truly think this gelding does not want to win and that is why I’m avoiding putting him on top today. #4 Is Trevor Clever is a gelding trying dirt for the first time and I believe that he wants dirt anyway. He is dropping in class, and coming off a huge layoff of 8 months and Peter Miller shines with this angle, so at a price I can see this gelding making a run for the money.
RACE 7- AOC $62,500, 3YOS & UP, 1 MILE DIRT, $55,000
# 6 Semper Fortis ML 7/2
# 2 Lucky J Lane ML 12/1
# 8 St. Joe Bay ML 5/2
This AOC is a very solid field and I went towards the #6 Semper Fortis. With good connections and a drop in class, I can see this colt winning. The Los Al Derby was a very solid field and he managed to get 2nd and lost by a head. With a lot of early speed in this race, I can see this colt sitting off the pace and having enough energy to strike the lead and pull away. #2 Lucky J Lane is a solid horse at a huge price. Coming off a win this gelding is looking to prove himself against better and looks to chase down the early speed by sitting off the pace and closing and getting a piece of the money if not win. #8 St. Joe Bay is the morning line favorite and I think honestly is a little bit vulnerable. Yet coming out of a hugely competitive field and going turf to dirt which this horse likes, I can see it winning but I just don’t see it winning at that low of a price and that is why he is my 3rd selection.
RACE 8- LURE STAKES, 3YO & UP 1 MILE TURF, $70,000
# 5 Drummer (GER) ML 6/1
# 2 A Red Tie Day ML 3/1
# 4 Twentytwentyvision ML 9/5
This stakes race has a little bit of a vulnerable favorite in my opinion and that is why I went with #5 Drummer a shipper from Germany. Coming out of G2 and G3 races in Germany and getting lasix is always an angle I like playing. With a very consistent duo aboard this horse in their own rights, I can see this colt doing just fine today. #2 A Red Tie Day is a very classy horse in his own right. With an Early run style, he should dictate the pace, and if no one pressures him, I can see him winning it all. #4 Twentytwentyvision, is the morning line favorite and I see him as a vulnerable favorite. This gelding is the class of the field and easily the most proven horse. Yet with closing speed, in a race with a slower pace than normal, I don’t see him being able to sit back and make his run as easy as he usually does.
RACE 9- CLAIMING $16,000, 3YO & UP, 1 MILE DIRT, $19,000
# 2 Profound Visionary ML 4/1
# 4 Look Twice ML 5/2
# 6 Thunder Basin ML 7/2
In the nightcap, I looked toward the #2 Profound Visionary as my top selection. This gelding is now in the Diodoro barn which excels in 1st off the claim so that is intriguing by itself. With the ability to come from far off the pace and run his race, I can see him being able to chase down the early speed and win. #4 Look Twice is the morning line favorite and is pretty solid, yet with the drop in jockey rating, I can see this horse not running as good. That is why I put him second in my top selections. #6 Thunder Basin, is a solid gelding and going into his 3rd race off the layoff and looking for improvement. I can see him getting a piece of the money but I don’t believe he will win.
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