Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, October 23, 2016
On Sunday, we’re headed back out to Del Mar where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from returning guest handicapper Andrew Rdesinski (@variousprod215).
Andrew has put together a writeup that covers each race on today’s card. We appreciate his time and effort. When you get a moment, go ahead and give him a follow on Twitter!
Take it away, Andrew…
I’m back handicapping for Dan again, Sundays at Santa Anita. My name is Andrew “Various” Rdesinski. I’ve been going to the races since I was an infant and I learned to read by reading the forms. I grew up being Kendrick Carmouche’s number one fan, and I’ve been a friend of his since his early days at Parx. Nowadays, I play tournaments and am a casual bettor that loves to handicap. Enough said, let’s jump into the Sunday card at Santa Anita.
Multi Race Wagers
Early Pick 5 50 Cent Wager Races (1-5)-1/4-1/4/6-4/5-1/5-2/3/6=$36
$2 Pick 6 Races(4-9)-1/5-2/3/6-2/7-5-2/3-3/8=$96
Late Pick 4 50 cent wager Races(6-9)- 2/7-5-2/3-1/3/7/8=$16
RACE 1- AOC $62,500, Purse $55,000, F&M 3yo & Up, 6 1/2 Furlongs Downhill Turf
#4 Paquita Coqueta (CHI) ML 2-1
#1 Cindy’s Secret ML 3-1
#2 Corps de Ballet ML 12-1
In this AOC for fillies and mares I go with a mare who raced most of her career in Chile. #4 Paquita Coqueta came to America in her last start and was on lasix for the first time and ran a game second. She is dropping in class in slightly when it comes to AOC races and also stretching out from her normal 5 Furlong to 5 and a 1/2 Furlong turf races. Flavien Prat stays aboard today which is a good sign and with early speed I could expect this horse to hold on at the wire. #1 Cindy’s Secret is another solid mare who is coming out of an overnight stakes race where she ran a solid race in which she used her early speed to be in front and set quick fractions on the lead. This led to her final placing of a 4th, and in the end tired this mare out.With experience over this course and dropping in class, I expect her to run back to her old ways. #2 Corps de Ballet is a young filly and her PPs show that. She is very inconsistent but has a win in an AOC race over this course and has been in 4 stakes races two of which were graded already in her young career. As a filly that comes off the pace and strikes the lead at the top of the stretch I can see this filly chasing down the early pace and winning at a price.
RACE 2 – Starter Handicap $16,000, Purse $26,000, F&M 3yo & Up, 1 Mile
#1 Plastered ML 3-1
#4 Warren’s Tricia R. ML 8-1
#6 Quinnette ML 6-1
This starter handicap field is very wide open in my opinion. Any of the 6 horse can win and I could make a case for each one of them. In that case I went with #1 Plastered. This filly won her 3rd race 2 back by 5 lengths in the same type of field as this current race. With no real early pace in this race, I can see this filly taking matters into her own hands and taking the lead on the backstretch and never looking back. #4 Warren’s Tricia R. is a mare that I feel like people will look past. This mare has a lot of experience on this course and is consistent on this course. Coming off a very decent layoff of nearly 5 months and with very solid works, this mare should be in tip top shape to run huge at possibly the highest price in the field. #6 Quinnette is another solid mare that should be lower than a 6-1 ML in my opinion and one of the top 3 favorites. Winning in a 8K claimer and just barely getting up back at Los Al, many people will look past this mare simply off of that last time out. However she won a 2 Starter Handicaps within the last year and seems to do best in those races based off her speed figures(83,82). Look for her to definitely run her race and get a piece of the pot.
RACE 3- Anoakia Stakes, Purse $70,000, 2YO Fillies, 6 Furlongs
#4 Woot Woot ML 6-1 (BEST BET OF THE CARD)
#5 American Gal ML 1/5
#3 Velvet Jones ML 12-1
How is Woot Woot not the favorite in this stakes race is beyond me. 2 Weeks ago in my first write up of this meet at Santa Anita, Woot Woot was my top selection in the first race and ended up winning as the favorite. She has won two straight with the same connections and has been increasing class type in each race. I truly believe that this horse will not go off anywhere near 6-1 but if she does go off anywhere more than 4-1 I will be betting over and over again on this horse to win. #5 American Gal is a very very good filly, In her only career start she broke her maiden bringing in a speed figure of 95. With a lot of early speed and proving she can be game I will expect this horse to win if some how Woot Woot runs an abysmal effort. #3 Velvet Jones is another very solid filly in this spot. She ran second to Woot Woot last time out and should bounce back today with her closing speed.
RACE 4- MSW, Purse $52,000 3yo & Up 1 Mile Turf
#5 Pappou ML 5-1
#1 Bedeviled ML 8/5
#3 Uncork the York (IRE) ML 7/2
This MSW field was pretty tough to pick a winner. #5 Pappou is a very interesting gelding. He has came in 4th the last two trips in the same type of scenario, yet was steadied hard in his last race and didn’t get his full trip. I think that he should be able to bounce back and close pretty strong today. #1 Bedeviled is the morning line favorite and rightfully so. The Desormeaux brother duo is very consistent and this horse is as well. However this colt is very consistent at finding ways to not win and still get in the money and that is my biggest concern in this race, #3 Uncork the York is going to be racing at the 4th different track in his first 4 races. His last race was just a very dull effort, but his start two back showed that he should want the 1 mile distance on turf and that this field looks weak enough for him to show improvement on the added distance.
RACE 5- Claiming $16,000, Purse $21,000, F&M 3 YO & UP 6 Furlongs
#6 WarrenDollarSigns ML 9/2
#2 Zuzu’s Petals ML 4-1
# 3 Altaira ML 6-1
This claiming race has some nice fillies and mares in it. #6 Warrensdollarsigns is looking for her third straight win as well as her third straight win at Santa Anita. She is coming off a 7 month layoff but Steven Miyadi is 22% at this angle and those are good enough numbers for me. With a lot of early speed this mare might just sit on the lead and win. #2 Zuzu’s Petals is a solid mare that is dropping out of an AOC which she won. With some late closing speed and consistency when it comes to Santa Anita I wouldn’t be surprised if she closes and wins today. #3 Altaira has not been out of the exacta in her last 6 starts. She also is 5 for 5 ITM over this course. However with a new trainer that is not as good as Peter Miller was, this horse might not be able to get it done today.
RACE 6- MSW, Purse $52,000, 2Yo Fillies, 1 Mile Turf
#2 Americana ML 7/2
#7 Go Argento ML 2-1
#5 Adler ML 10-1
This MSW is going to be interesting to watch as a fan. #2 Americana is adding blinkers and getting a winning combo aboard her. She was bought as a 2yo in March for $300,000 and with breeding of Tapit and Ghostzapper this filly should run huge like the connections expect. #7 Go Argento in my opinion might have lost confidence after that abysmal effort in a stakes race which everyone knew she was not ready for. Bouncing back into MSW company this filly might need a race in this company to gain some confidence back. #5 Adler came in 3rd last time out over this distance on the turf down at Golden Gate was just purely out finished. Look for this filly to run a bang up race today just might not be good enough to win.
RACE 7- AOC $20,000 Purse $53,000, 3Yo & Up, 1 Mile Dirt
#5 Overcomer ML 5/2
#2 Storm Comin Thru ML 3-1
# 6 Tribal Tribute ML 7/2
This CAL bred field is full of potential.I went with the favorite though because this gelding is coming out of a 100k stakes races where he had a stumbled start and still earned 4th but never got going due to the bad start. As a gelding who presses the early speed, I can see him striking with ease when he wants to and win by a landslide. #2 Storm Comin Thru doesn’t win often but does make the money often and that is what I expect this gelding to do today. As a gelding that can rate I wouldn’t be too surprised if this horse makes the money today. #6 Tribal Tribute is another solid gelding that still produces at the age of 7. This gelding should sit right of the early pace and gain the lead and win or at least make a run for the top spot today.
Race 8- MSW, Purse $52,000 2Yo Fillies 6 1/2 Furlongs
#3 Queen Bee to You ML 6-1
#2 Beau Square ML 4-1
#6 Decoded ML 7/2
Another pretty solid MSW field here which is restricted for cal breds only. #3 Queen Bee to You is a filly who has experience and good experience at that. Stepping up to MSW company I would not be surprised if this horse struggle a little but I think that she will overcome her struggles and wins. #2 Beau Square is a first time starter who has a pretty good connection aboard this horse for her first time out. I wouldn’t be too surprised if this filly wins her first time out. #6 Decoded has ran twice already and ran 4th both times. Yet she has never gotten a clean trip so if she gets a clean trip the potential is through the roof with this horse and could win with ease.
RACE 9- AOC $40,000, Purse $53,000, 3yo & Up, 6 1/2 Furlongs Downhill turf
#8 Tribal Fighter ML 5/2
#3 Zinvor ML 7/2
#7 Forest Blue ML 7/2
In the nightcap for today, Santa Anita provides an AOC. The morning line favorite, #8 Tribal Fighter, is a very solid horse, with a very solid connection with this gelding. With a solid amount of early speed, I can see him winning on the lead today. #3 Zinvor is a very consistent gelding, with solid connections as well. He sits off the pace and then strikes so this gelding can make his move and a run for the money. #7 Forest Blue is a gelding who has 2nd itis in my opinion, with 6 seconds in 11 starts. With those stats, I can see him getting a shot in the money today as well.
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