Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, January 8, 2017
Santa Anita Park
It’s a great Sunday of racing at Santa Anita Park, where we’ve got free picks & analysis from returning guest handicapper Andrew Rdesinski (@variousprod215)!
Andrew has put together a write-up that covers each race on today’s card, including a great running of the Santa Ynez Stakes. We appreciate his time and effort. When you get a moment, go ahead and give him a follow on Twitter!
Take it away, Andrew!
Hello everyone, its Andrew “Various” Rdesinski back for the Santa Anita winter meet. If you are not familiar with me, I’ve been going to the races since I was an infant, I learned to read by reading the forms. Nowadays I play tournaments and am a casual bettor that loves to handicap. Enough said let’s jump in to the card.
Early pick 5 – Races 1-5 (50 cent)- 2/8-1/3/7-1/2/4-7-1/8/9= $27
$2 Pick 6- Races 4-9($2)- 7-1/8/9-1/5/8-2/5/6-8-8=$54
Late Pick 4- Race 6-9 (50 cent)-1/5/7/8-2/4/5/6-8-8/11=$16
RACE 1- MSW, $54,000, 3yo Fillies, 1 Mile Turf
# 8 Paddy Jean ML 4/1
# 2 Zaffinah (IRE) ML 2/1
# 5 Ciao Bella Rosa ML 5/1
#8 Paddy Jean proved herself last time out, while controlling the speed, and still holding for 3rd at the finish line. She is cutting back and is coming back with same connections, look for her to try and go wire to wire. #2 is a shipper from Ireland and is getting lasix for the first time. That is an angle you guys should know I love, plus she already crossed the finish line in 1st even though she was DQ’d. This is the perfect recipe for a win today. #5 Ciao Bella Rosa has the most experience and has been consistent. I think she can improve today, and will make the money and possibly win.
OFF TURF – 1-8-5
RACE 2- MCL $20,000 4YO&UP, 1 Mile, $18,000
# 3 Libertarian ML 7/2
# 7 Country Road ML 2/1
# 1 Royal Rebel ML 3/1
#3 Libertarian is stretching out and looks to be a closer that wants more distance. He also had a troubled trip last time out, so if he gets a clean trip, he could be home easily. #7 Country Road, i took last time out and got a dismal 4th, but I think he is facing weaker today, so expect more. #1 Royal Rebel, is stretching out, and I feel like he just needs a good break, and he should have a better end result. Let’s hope, for the best.
RACE 3- Claiming $16,000, 4YO &UP, 6F, $20,000
# 2 Forest Blue ML 5/2
# 1 Sleepwalker ML 4/1
# 4 Bolitar ML 3/1
#2 Forest Blue won last time out, and just lasted, but is dropping in class slightly, and is facing weaker, I think he can do just fine today. #1 Sleepwalker, also won last time out, but stays in this class type, and has a trainer who does real good with horses coming off a win at 27%. #4 Bolitar I took last week, coming off a layoff. He ran poorly but could of needed one, especially the way Doug O Neil brought him back in a week.
RACE 4- MSW $54,000, 3YO Maidens, 6F
# 7 Potente Alba ML 7/5
# 2 Patience Ofa Saint ML 4/1
# 4 Cal Cal Li Gowchis ML 10/1
#7 Potente Alba, is much the best horse based off experience, and improvement. He has the most experience and has gotten better in each start. I expect him to power over this field today. #2 Patience Ofa Saint, is in my eyes the best looking First Time Starter, on paper. He has a good consistent training pattern, and a decent pedigree. #4 Cal Cal Li Gowchis, has a start under his belt, but it was over a wet surface, and had a bad break. I think he is the wild card in this field and a must include.
RACE 5- AOC $20,000, 4YO&UP, 1 Mile Turf, $56,000
# 8 Brandothebartender ML 3/1
# 9 The Big Train ML 5/1
# 1 Start a Runnnin ML 4/1
#8 Brandothebartender is a very intriguing gelding. He only has ran farther than 6 1/2 furlongs and it was early in his career. Other than that his late running style seems to just have him begging for more distance. I expect him to run big and late today. #9 The Big Train is a FTG and is coming off a win but also a layoff. I think he might and should need one race to get back to form. He likes to run 2nd so I expect that outcome today. #1 Start a Runnin won last time out, and is predominately a dirt horse, but has done decent on turf. So I expect another decent performance after what he showed last time with his wire to wire 107 speed figure finish.
OFF TURF- 2-7-1
RACE 6- Claiming $25K-$22.5K, f&M 4YO&UP, 7f, $30,000
# 1 Midnight Candy ML 4/1
# 5 Avicii ML 3/1
# 8 Warrendollarsigns ML 9/2
#1 Midnight Candy beat my top pick last time out which was Avicii in that race, and they ran 1-2 then and I expect the same today. I like the way she ran last time out, but I don’t think she will win back to back or at least have an easy time today. #5 Avicii is coming off a claim by a better trainer, so I think she should be prepped enough to bounce back to her winning ways today. #8 Warrendollarsigns, loves SA, and has raced a lot in here 6 years of life. I think she can do well today, and should be right in the mix, especially with out Mark Glatt is off the claim.
RACE 7- AOC $62,500, 4YO&UP, 6F, $58,000
# 6 Distinctive B ML 5/2
# 5 Drover Crazy ML 7/2
# 2 Who’s Out ML 4/1
#6 Distinctive B has been consistent in the past 365 days, and ran very well last time out, and I think he is the best horse in this field. It is a wide open race however. I think #5 Drover Crazy can win his 4th straight today also. He is coming off of a layoff but has had back to back bullet works so it shows he is in shape. #2 Who’s Out is much the class of the field, and should use that to his advantage. Expect him to be the wise horse of the field.
RACE 8-Santa Ynez Stakes GII, Fillies 3YO, 7F $200K
# 8 Shane’s Girlfriend ML 9/5
# 3 Unique Bella ML 8/5
# 5 Princess Karen ML 8/1
#8 Shane’s Girlfriend might be one of the best 3yo Fillies in the country. She won a 400K stakes race in a hand ride, and has been rested after that. I think she wins easily. However, #3 Unique Bella is also intriguing due to her last win. 111 Speed figure to break your maiden is impressive, especially in a hand ride as well. #5 Princess Karen will be battling for show but I think her win over 7F is key to this equation. Also with a bullet work recently it shows she is ready to come off the layoff.
RACE 9-MSW- 4YO&UP, 6F, $64,000
# 8 Gosofar ML 5/2
# 11 Gutsy Effort ML 12/1
# 2 Monterey Shale ML 8/1
#8 Gosofar is easily the best horse in the field, especially if she gets a clean trip. #11 Gutsy Effort is actually a nice horse, it is going to be a step up in class, but I think the upgrade in jockey will help him. #2 Monterey Shale is the most experienced and that should help him by it self.
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