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Picks of the Day Submitted by You!
Saturday, February 7, 2015
Today, we’re headed back out to Santa Anita, where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from star California ‘capper and Twitter sensation, JJ, AKA @Dmrsurfside!
We thank him for sharing his thoughts today . We encourage you to follow him on Twitter and wish you good luck if you’re playing along. Take it away, JJ…
VALENTINES DAY AT THE GREAT RACE PLACE
Race 1: The 1 Mia Luccia adds blinkers for a horse with speed in a race where if you can get the lead even with quick fractions you might be long gone, plus I don’t think Mia Luccia will be favored and I just don’t want 7 or 8/5 in race like this. That being said I expect Lovely Instinct to be the deserving favorite to open the day for the red hot Hector Palma/ Felipe Valdez combo.. This daughter of Henny Hughes is very logical on the win end. Finally the 7 Irish and Lucky had a very strange ride/trip last time, broke slow with multiple checks… I’ll use 1-6-7 to start the pick 5 and I’ll make a small WP bet on the 1 Mia Luccia adding blinkers to start my day.
Picks Race 1: 1-6-7
Race 2: I’m delicately picking #4 Action Hero in race 2 for Tom Proctor racing in a small field of first time starters. ACTION HERO ran a nice 5th in a productive race and he was coming on at the end of that race and ran pretty well for a barn who generally isn’t too keyed up first out. Baffert enters two what appear to be live horses in here; my issue with both of them is they both don’t seem to have much pedigree. My back up horses will be the 3 Moe Candy who starts for an awesome barn first time out in John Sadler striking with 3.00$ Roi, and the 1 Bold Bid who enters off a lousy debut but carries with him a sharp pedigree. Of the 2 baffert runners it appears the 2 totally out worked the 6 from the gate the other day and I could see using the 2 in the pick 5.
Picks race 2: 4-3-1-2
Race 3: #7 Ballard Ruler is going to be a big price in this race and adds blinkers and has 2 decent enough route races over this track that makes him competitive here, he also at least has 2 seconds on this track which is more than a lot of these can say. Maybe the blinkers wake up him. El Vaguro stretches back out and he’s 1 for 2 with a second going two turns, I’m sure he’ll run well today. I bet Cole Cole last time at a huge price and he ran pretty well from the 14 post and I’ll be using again on my tickets. Finally Gallant Charm will be a short priced favorite, I don’t trust him, but most horse players will still include him on their multi race bets.
Picks race 3: 7-9-6-2
Race 5: This is an excellent betting race. I can’t resist a horse in this race and he should be a huge price. #3 Tiz Futurity has a horrible racing record of 2/37, so I can see why many will pass. However, he has two things going for him he’s trying turf for a new barn off the claim, and he exits a racing day where any outside post and trip just was way against the track. There are no killers in this race and I’ll be making a bet on 3 Tiz Futurity at what will be 20-1+. #4 Deputy Heat, a son of unusual Heat has clearly improved for the Sadler barn and I expect him to run well again, he ran well against open 35,000 claimers as a maiden at DMR and to be honest that is probably a harder group than a group of N1X cal breds. #1 Unusual Fleet will be stalking the 6 Turn on the pumps and I truly believe that one of them will be there at the wire as there isn’t much pace in this race. This is a fun interesting race.
RACE 5 picks: 3-4-1-6
Race 7: This race starts a very intriguing pick 3 to end the day. Probably the best “sequence” of the day at Santa Anita. I like #11 Ivana Be YBAD in race 7, big jock switch from Maldanado to Stevens here, beautiful post #11 down the hill, this young filly by prominent turf sprint sire More than Ready should be a square 4-1 or so on the board and this filly was squeezed in her first start and wide coming home. Boat Drinks had a perfectly fine debut my issue with her is that barn wins first out, and they didn’t get it done, she also somewhat walked on a slow pace down the hill. Boat Drinks can win, but I think she’ll be short at 8/5 9/5 and maybe ok to take a shot against. #8 Entrechat had a wide trip in her debut for a barn in Neil Drysdale who doesn’t win much first out and is a very likely winner in this race. #4 Oui Cat Oui, is a logical first time starter for a barn who can sneak a longer priced winner in first time out from time to time. Lastly the 12 AVENGE is a MUST USE if she draws in this race as her trainer Richard Mandella is RED HOT right now.
RACE 7 PICKS: 11-8-4-12-7
RACE 8: This is some edition of the Santa Maria, all of these fillies even the longshots have a race that makes competitive in here. I can’t settle on chalk in here on the win end, but I will use some of it defensively in the late pick 4. #7 Sweet marini is my idea in here. Now I know there is a TON of pace on paper, but she has proven in the past she doesn’t “need” the lead and could be sitting a very nice stalking/speed type trip from the 7 post in here. Baffert has VERY Strong numbers sprint/route at 30% strike rate with a 2.40$ cent ROI, and I loved her last race in the Santa Monica. Thegirlinthatsong will get a good ride from Bejarano and I trust this barn the most of the off the pace types in the race. Finally my ridiculous horse I’m throwing on at a price is Backintheacademy, her last win closing into a relatively average pace makes her competitive here in a race where she figures to get monster pace to run at. I know she is “cheap” but at 40-1 or so why not throw in her the mix? I’m just a little dubious on Yahilwa I just don’t trust that barn all that much.
RACE 8 PICKS: 7-2-9
RACE 9: Fantastic race to close the day and I’m ready to bet some “euro” entries in this race. #4 Havanna Belle is the one I want the most of, enters a sharp barn in Phil D’amato and these Teofilo progeny (by Galileo) have very strong turf + stakes + sprinting numbers and I’ll bet her to win in this race. Havanna Belle carried 139 lbs last time against males in a 20 horse field at 8-1 in Ireland to be second, seems like a pretty impressive race. Mandella is plenty hot right now, and Spirit of Xian figures to run well. If #12 Sister of Mercy gets in off the AE LIST I will throw her in the mix. Bobbi Grace has run well in her US Starts culminating in a nice win last time out, however, she got a fantastic pace setup of 21.1 and 43 fractions and they didn’t really finish that race all that quick. Mio Me is a little bit “muddied up” off a poor dirt effort and her win down the hill 1/3/15 was impressive, the pace was slow and she was the only filly in the race closing at the end behind a slow pace for the win.
Race 9 Picks: 4-11-12-6
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