Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Friday, October 7, 2016
On Friday, we’re headed out to Santa Anita where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from returning guest handicapper Sebastian Piscuskas (@seabass912).
Sebastian has been one of our featured West Coast handicappers for some time now. You can find his picks every Friday on Danonymous Racing. We thank Sebastian for sharing his thoughts today. We encourage you to give him a follow on Twitter when you get a chance. Take it away, Sebastian…
Race 1: #7 Louden’s Gray had the lead and looked to be home free in his last try on dirt before heading up North to run on the grass. He wasn’t disgraced in that effort and returns South for the level he was claimed for. A favorable post and decent speed will keep him involved early. Perennial leading rider Bejarano gets aboard. #3 Lambo Luxx has improved with each start since coming off of a seven-month layoff and should be sitting on a big effort for Carava. He’s another in here with tactical speed and a good post. #6 Hye I’m Jack finally drops to a level where he can compete after running well over his head for better than a year. The drop makes sense but the lack of works in almost a month since his last is a huge warning sign for ice cold O’Neill. 7-3-6
Race 2: #4 The Common Man set the pace on turf in his last start at Golden Gate before tiring in the lane against a superior foe. He has long distance dirt blood in him on both the top and bottom of his pedigree and, judging by how well he performed in his last start, has been wanting to route for some time. Should be the one to catch. #6 Chase the Money makes his first start as a gelding after finishing well behind the leader on the drop in class in his last start. We don’t know what this son of Haynesfield has to offer given how poorly he’s run but with the gelding in his corner it’s highly unlikely he won’t at least run a bit better today. #8 Beantown Boys was home free in his last race and reacted badly to the whip and almost went over the rail. The final time was slow and he was staggering but it should have been a winning effort. Expect a similar result today. 4-6-8-9
Race 3: #6 Tribal Jewel got back on track at Del Mar, putting in incredible front end performances where he displayed exceptional heart. He was claimed for 32k by Spawr, who is 31% off the claim, after being unceremoniously dropped by Baltas. If the horse is tailing off Spawr doesn’t think so as he brings the Tribal Rule gelding back in a month and runs him for much more than what he claimed him for. His oppressive speed should ward off all challengers on the front end but it is his heart that will get him to the wire. #7 Rocko’s Wheel tried stakes company last year but has severely underachieved this year. His connections are dropping him for a win but, as a homebred, won’t be too distraught if they lose him. #1 City Steel was a lowly claimer in New York before he came out West and won in his first start in California. He was immediately claimed by Glatt and runs for double what he was claimed for. The rail is a huge negative but moves like these need to be acknowledged. 3-7-1
Race 4: #5 Altaira was taken too far off the pace in her last and was left with way too much work to do in the final stages and still only came up a neck short. Solis will likely employ similar tactics to her first start off the layoff where she was handy and outworked her competition home. Altaira is winless in four tries at Santa Anita but has never missed the board. #2 Fast Magoo is the quickest horse out of the gate but struggles whenever she has to run farther than 5.5f. She’s the one to catch. #8 Shakeitupbetty lures Desormeaux in her second start off the claim for Pederson. When was the last time you saw Kent D ride an 8k claimer? 5-2-8
Race 5: #4 Peach Cove was doomed when she drew the rail in her NA debut and was not disgraced when beaten a length. She’s worked well in the morning in preparation for this, and surprising has spent quite a bit of time at San Luis Rey. She’ll be rolling in the stretch. #11 Pearl de Vere is a different animal over this course and, given how well she’s going of late, that means a great deal. She needs a defection to draw in but should she make the race she will be a nightmare for the rest of this field. #7 Easy Grader ran her race in her first start against open company but it ultimately was not enough. The downhill turf races have all seen blistering opening fractions so this daughter of Tribal Rule will have some pace to run into. 4-11-7-5
Race 6: #7 Spidermania disappointed me on debut when he showed very little but I want to believe he has more to offer. He was working incredibly well before his debut but has been conditioned a little differently in the morning since. There aren’t a lot of positive angles here this is simply a gut play. #5 Closing Time has run into trouble in both career starts. He goes two sprints to a route with a nice little letup in between starts. We’ll finally see what he is capable of, barring another trouble trip. #9 Marckie’s Water debuts for Baltas with a consistent worktab. He makes his first start at a mile, a peculiar move, and lures Bejarano. He probably needs one but these connections are too potent to ignore. 7-5-9
Race 7: #7 Chief of Staff just didn’t show up at Los Al in his last start. I’m going to toss that race out but acknowledge its usefulness in terms of fitness. Drawn the far outside, the Hollendorfer colt can place himself wherever he wants. Gutierrez has many options with this talented runner. #5 Smart Transition has been an overachiever and a disappointment at the same time. He was terrible in the Brubaker and needs to rebound, but this really isn’t Shirreffs’s move. Espinosa rode this guy twice before with little success. #6 Sammy Mandeville is like up against it the way the course played Friday. He’s going to need some pace held and a complete form reversal. This race is far and away Chief of Staff’s to lose. 7-5-6
Race 8: #8 Shysheisnot has shown controlling speed at times in her career. She makes her first start for Miller, who is absolutely unconscious right now with 6 wins over the first 4 days of the meet and better than 32% off of the claim. Bejarano gets aboard and will be shoving hard over a turf course that has played to speed to kick off the meet. #2 So Good to Go is winless since running at this very distance and level in June. The Miranda trainee is coming in off a race where she was disqualified for drifting as the favorite against better. The drop makes sense and on her best day she’s more than capable of handling these. #11 Optimism and Hope has always struck me as a better sprinter, yet here she is bidding for her third straight win routing. She needs a scratch to draw in but will prove formidable should she lineup. 8-2-11
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