Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, January 16, 2017
Opening weekend at Oaklawn wraps up today with a special holiday program. The nine-race card includes the first race on their Kentucky Derby trail, the Smarty Jones Stakes, featuring eight Derby prospects.
For today’s card, we’ve got Mason Webb (@mtwebb01) providing FREE analysis of the entire card! We thank Mason for his work today, and encourage you to give him a follow on twitter.
Take it away, Mason!
Chance of Rain is 90% so probably going to be some scratches. Here is my Analysis.
Race 1 – #10 Primarily Gold looks to be a beatable favorite. 0-3 at Oaklawn. #6 Big Ben seems to be improving every race since switching to the dirt. #1 Husky Clipper is a longshot that I think is worth a look. Won at this level Mar 31, 2016. #12 Big tire shipping in from California and has some pretty decent races at Del Mar and Santa Anita.
Race 2– None of the runners who have a race under belt look to strong in here. #9 All to Stormy has one of my favorite angles for first time starters. Shows 4 works and then straight to track. He should be ready and Timothy Martin can have them ready 1st time out. Second Choice #11 Checkmate Charlie has been working well and has shown a couple of nice workouts in the slop. Mason Ingrid can also win first time out.
Race 3– #6 Black Sherry, coming off a long layoff but has 2 works and then to the track. Trainer is good with horse +180 days away from track. Black Sherry is 2-5 at Oaklawn and has a win in the slop which is expected. #2 Bandi’s Gal first off the claim for Thomas Vance and gets Jose Ortiz aboard. Horse is training well and should have plenty of stamina
Race 4– Top pick #4 Game Time Decision looks to be the best on paper and training great. First start in a barn that is great 1st claim with Brad Cox and Robby Albarado takes the mount. $1 tri 4/2,8,9,10 $12 bet.
Race 5– Starts the Late pk5 . #5 True Boots ran well on debut on the dirt then ran poorly on the turf. Gets back to dirt and is a contender in this race. #1 Tiz Twenty Three broke slow in debut and closed well. Trainer is good with second time starters and this horse should improve. #11 Treble first time starter for Ron Moquett has been training great and he can have them ready to go. He has 2 first timers in here but I lean towards the #11 over the #3.
PK 5 bet 5,1/4,2,6,9/7/1,5,6/3,5
Race 6– First race of the late pk4 . #4 Conquest Twister is getting a barn switch from Casse to Moquett. Hard to tell if this horse is going to improve but his only start at Oaklawn was at this level and he ran 4th to Whitmore who is a pretty good horse. #2 Richie the Bull hated the polytrack last time out and has been facing tougher. The race at Churchill Nov 17 should put him right there at the wire. I think this is a tough race and if you can afford to go deep in PK 4 do it. Might be only chance to get a price.
PK 4 Bet 2,4,6,9/1,7/1/3,5
Race 7– I only think you need two horse in this race. #1 Hence will likely be a heavy favorite ecspecially b/c there is a 1A. Hence dueled throughout last time and lost by a neck. Should be tough again here. Only other horse you would need to use in multi race wagers or the exacta is first time starter #7 Atta Kid . $300,000 Keeneland September purchase by Lemon Drop Kid. Training well and Von Hemel is good with First timers. My bet will be 1,7/1,7/All Tri and a win bet on the 7 .
Race 8– Feature race of the day for 3 year olds. Typically I would jump all over the #1 horse Petrov going sprint/route. However Ron Moquett isn’t that great with that angle and is 0-7 with 2 sprints to a route. Jose Ortiz is aboard which is a good sign and if it weren’t for those stats I may single this horse in multi race bets. I am definitely using but am not calling a lock like I normally would. . #5 Unbridled Eagle broke his maiden on the dirt at Saratoga and then has tried turf. Getting a huge trainer upgrade switching to Asmussen and this one deserves a look. #6 Unconstested is training great and looks to be tough. I never like when a horse gives up like he did in last race and loses by 5 .
Race 9– Not a very strong race and #3 Pennington Bayou looks to be the best on paper . Trainer is great 61-180 days out and this horse looks to be a contender. #5 Langdarma looks to be a much better horse when Landeros is aboard and he is aboard today. Just posted his top lifetime speed figure and if he runs like that again will be tough.
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