Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Wednesday, February 8, 2017
Joseph Bengston (@horseraceguy101) has you covered on this Wednesday night at Danonymous, providing FREE picks & analysis of select Northfield Park races. First post time is at 6:00 PM EST.
Take it away, Joseph!
The first race at Northfield Park appears to be a race between two horses. #2 Eleven Madison was 4th most of the race before the half. The opening 1/4 was clocked in 27:1. The half was then recorded in 56:2. Eleven Madison made a monster 3 wide move and won the race easy. Eleven Madison won by 2 1/2 lengths and started from post 9, gets post 2 this time around and should be leaving from the gate early. The horse that may have a little more value attached with the odds is the #8 Awesomely Awesome. This one finished second to Eleven Madison last time out. Ronnie Wrenn Jr will have a much harder time this go-around as Eleven Madison started from post 1 in that race back on January 31st. The race appears to be clear with the #2 on top and while the #8 is the second best post 8 could cause this one to finish 3rd or possibly even worse. The odds for both horses are expected to be low, depending on what odds the eight ends up at, the value wager may be a place or show wager, There is also the potential we could see a random longshot for second with the 8 finishing third.
Top Selection #2 Eleven Madison
The second race and second leg of the daily double features a morning line favorite in the #8 Oakley Doakley at 9-5. The way this race shapes up is that either the favorite dominates this field or has troubled trip from post 8 opening the passing lane for any horse in this race to pull an upset. This however, seems unlikely as most of the horses in this bunch have not been consistent of late. The post for the favorite may hurt a little but it’s not impossible to win and in this case, this one just looks much the best compared to the rest of the field.
Top Selection #8 Oakley Doakley.
Quick note on race 3, same issue as race 2 with field of horses being inconsistent, yet no big favorite. This race likely to be good betting board race with value to make money, but no value on any true live long shots.
The top selection in race eight goes to #9 Man He Can Skoot. This one started from post 5 last time out. Tried to leave early for lead and got parked second. Man He Can Skoot has finished third in last two starts. The last race when this one got parked they went a fast 26:4 for the 1/4 and 55:4 for the 1/2. Aarron Merriman will need the #1 Zeb’s Cam Bo to leave early to follow behind that one and if that happens look for this one to move to the front. The #1 Zebs Cam Bo has post 2 last time out. This one just held on for second finishing 6 lengths behind the winner. Kurt Sugg getting an inside post for this one again helps, though likely not a winner, but will offer more value than the #9.
The entry in the field of nine that seems best to finish second or with the right trip/fractions to be a bit of an upset is #4 Lucky Rei. Lucky Rei finished 4th last time out but only beaten by 2 1/2 lengths. This was also the race Man He Can Skoot finished 3rd. Lucky Rei gets post #4 again this week and had to make wide move in stretch last week. The other negative point to mention for this one is that longshot SJ’S Blissful Guy has finished ahead of this one before. The flip side is Lucky Rei finished 2nd at this level three starts back.
The other value horse is #2 Dallas Seelster. This one had been racing at the non winners $8,000 last 5 with the exception of the last start at this same level. Dallas Seelster had post 9 that race and gets post 2 this time around, which will be a big plus. The #3 Ubetterubetterbet may get a paycheck for this one’s connections, however for the horse-players/handicappers I’m not quite sure this one finishes any better than 4th. The #8 Grantland gets another tough outside post, Ronnie Wrenn Jr will again likely be looking to push this one to the front early. I believe once again this post will hurt and at 2-1 a likely low bet horse that will tire in the stretch once again, should this one be fortunate enough to get the lead from post 8.
Top selection #9 Man He Can Skoot.
Value horses #2,#4,#1 (possibly the 3 at big odds if you choose to make small $2 win wager, would have to get lucky).
The 9th race on the card is likely to have two top betting favorites. This being the #1 Pow Chicka Pow Pow, and the #2 Royal Kee Wee N. These two appear to likely leave early for the lead. The race looks to have these two battling it out for the top speed into the first turn, either one will have option to sit back if not able to get the lead then make move to pass on the outside. The other scenario is both Josh Sutton and Aarron Merriman continue to battle for the lead. The #2 Royal Kee Wee N just got beat the wire last time out at this same level. The #1 Pow Chick Pow Pow, however, is dropping in class.
The #3 Jimmy Rip and #4 Jumpin Jack J are both coming back from the same race as the #2 Royal Kee Wee N. #3 Jimmy Rip finished 4th that race from post 1, with an inside post advantage this one doesn’t seem likely to win tonight, but a 3rd or 4th place finish might be aligned with the stars for this 8 year old gelding. The #4 Jumpin Jack J finished 5th that race but this one had a tough first over trip and simply had nothing left in the tank. There is also a driver swith to Keith Kash Jr, who has two second place finishes driving this horse in the past. I could see this one getting third early behind the #1 and #2 and waiting to pounce, only negative would be to get boxed in with no where to go.
The other horse with value to consider is the #6 T Red who is dropping down in class. This one three starts back had raced in the open conditions at Northfield Park. Ronnie Wrenn Jr will be in the sulky, which may drive odds on this horse low. T Red also gets a little post relief and should get a better trip tonight. Ronnie Wrenn Jr has options to sit back and make move later in race or go early, despite not showing much gate speed, but this is likely due to level of recent competition along with this one’s recent post draws.
The next and tenth race has one horse who should dominate this field being the #2 Montana Skies. This one just looks much the best of the field and dropping in class. The race for second third, and minor awards is up for grabs for any horse in this race. This could be a good race to make a place or show wager potentially and look for a big longshot to race well. The other scenario however is that the second and third betting choice finish 2nd and third.
The last leg of the pick 4 sequence features a top selection in the #1 Dusto. This one is dropping in class. He has faced good company, and has a second place finish at the non winners $6,500 last 5, beaten by a neck. Ronnie Wrenn Jr drove this horse that race from post 2, gets the rail for the 11th, and should have this one fired up to go early. The #7 One To Draw is coming off a second place finish at the non winners $6,500 last 5 and dropping in class. The starting post for this one last time out was post 5. This one getting post 7 this week, hinders this horses early speed. Aarron Merriman likely to leave early, has option to sit back but more likely to leave. This is where I believe the #1 Dusto will have an edge on the #7. The value long shot in this race is the #3 Instant Riches. This one gets post relief and could be a good value play for the exotics.
Top selection #1 Dusto
Value horse #3 Instant Riches
$2 daily double 2,8/8 = $4.00
$1.00 Pick-4 1,2,3,4,9/1,2,3,4,6/2/1 = $25.00
$1.00 Pick-4 2,4,9/1,4,6/2/1 = $9.00
$2 exacta 9/1,2,4 = $6.00
$1.00 Trifecta 9/2,4/1,3,8 = $6.00
$1.00 Pick-3 1,2,3,4,6/2/1 = $5.00
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