Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Northfield Park (Harness Racing)
For the first time ever on Danonymous Racing, we will have consistent coverage of harness racing! We’re taking it to Northfield Park in Ohio, where big cards and big fields are the name of the game. On this Tuesday night, we’ve got Michael Carter (@mcarte1) providing FREE picks & analysis of the entire 15-race program.
Michael serves as the assistant director of mutuels and backup track announcer at Northfield. He’s also the co-host of the Post Time with Mike & Mike radio show, which has new episodes every Thursday night. Give Michael a follow on twitter, and be sure to check out his radio broadcasts as well.
First post time tonight at Northfield, as it is every night, is 6:00 PM EST.
Take it away, Michael!
$1.00 Pick 5 (Race 3)
2,8,9/3,5,9,7/1,9/1,9/3,5 – Cost $96.00
$1.00 Pick 4 (Race 8)Guaranteed Pool $10,000
1,3,9/1,4,9/1,7/1,3 – Cost $36.00
$.20 Super Hi-5 (Race 13)Guaranteed Pool $10,000
1,9/1,3,9/1,3,5,9/1,3,4,5,9/ALL – Cost $16.00
Race 1- I really feel like the sloppy track got Stevens Queen (1) in her last start, where she gave up 10 lengths early and made up a few of them in the stretch. She draws the rail this week and has the ability to show a little bit of early speed. A horse looking to improve off two tough efforts is Defending Champ (2). This is a tough horse to back away from considering the 10-1 morning line. He stepped up in class two starts back and hasn’t drawn well at all, this will be the true test. Lion Image (7) draws the outside again after defeating this class from here last time out. Expecting another big effort. Jailhouse Tuff (6) finished a game 3rd against this group last time out. Has a shot to hit the ticket against this class.
Race 2- Holyholyguacamolie (1) has won 5 of 6 races and is looking to go 3 for 3 in 2017. In a race where there isn’t a ton of value, you may want to key off of this horse. The closest competitor in this field will be Overcomebyvictory (7) who has won 3 of her last five starts. She draws the outside this week against a field where there is only one other speed horse and thats the favorite. Has a shot, but expecting her to only be on the minor portion of the ticket. Vintage Hall (3) really closed strongly from off the pace in his last start from post 9. Gets a good draw and is looking to improve. Awesomely Awesome (9) really tired late in the stretch last time out. Will be able to follow a little bit of speed which will help some.
Race 3- A horse that really hasn’t looked the best as of late in Mystery Ringer (2). He has drawn horrible in his last few starts, but since adding Lasix three starts has really started to come around. Draws the inside this week and picks up Josh Sutton, could present some value. Blue Valley (9) is in 1st off the layoff for trainer Sue Stockwell tonight who is in the money 21% of the time. The draw hasn’t been kind to this mare, but tonight she will be able to follow a little bit of speed. She could really present some value to the Pick 5. Ciro (8) picks up Wrenn for the first time in a couple starts. Draws tough, but the driver change could really help here.
Race 4- Consistency from a horse, along with a little bit of value is something I really look for in these races. Tonight the value comes from Western Dial (5) who is moving up in class after being very consistent at the lower level. He draws well tonight and has a strong ability to show speed off the gate. Forever The Gold (3) was a game 3rd last time out after being parked the mile. What was impressive about that start was he didn’t lose a ton of ground late. I expect another big effort for a trainer who is 17% in the money 1st off the layoff. Since adding Lasix 3 starts back, a horse that seems to be improving is Standing Proud (9). He really liked coming to Northfield in his last start, I expect a big effort from the second tier. Flyin Orion (7) is stepping up in class this week and after winning from post 8 and spotting the field fifteen lengths, I really think this horse has a real shot to hit the board.
Race 5- Rose Run Nellie (1) is stepping up in class tonight after a very big effort from post 6 against lower level conditioned horses last out. He draws the rail and while he doesn’t have a lot of speed, he could sit the pocket and come home late. Ballagio Hanover (9) is another horse who looked very sharp against lower level company from the outside last out. The issue here is that there isn’t a ton of speed inside. He will need to come first up to have a chance and I think that could happen here. Oneeyedmomma (6) made an uncharacteristic break against this group last time out. Looking back at her last few starts before that she had been pretty consistent. I expect that consistency to shine through tonight. Montana Skies (3) has been up and down in class over the past couple of starts. Draws well this week against a group that she was very good against before, looking to improve off that last start.
Race 6- NY Whitesox (9) won at this level last time out from mid-pack. The impressive thing is that since adding Lasix three starts back, he has really started to improve. He follows no speed, but is a horse that is trip dependent as well. He should get that trip tonight. Albert A’ Scootin (1) was parked the mile last week and still managed to win easily coming home in 29 seconds. He draws the rail and should get a better trip, which will make him tough to beat. A horse trying to perform at this level again is Chicagosonaroll (5). She moved up to this group two starts back and never really fired from the rail. She dropped and won by a neck, tonight she moves back up and should at least be close to the pace. Sharkhart (6) has been very consistent from the inside and outside posts against this class. He draws the outside again this week, definitely a contender.
Race 7- Tymal Bling (5) was parked to the quarter in her last start where she was taking a pretty big jump in class. Tonight she draws the middle of the pack and should have a little bit of an easier road to the lead. You could very well get a good price to close out the Pick 5 sequence here. We are searching for a lot of value in this race and I think Lima Legend (3) deserves at least an exotic look. He dropped to this class where he had some success before and didn’t get the best trip from post 6. Draws inside and likes to trip out. Epic Ranger (6) draws a little tough this week, and hasn’t really had a chance to see if the Lasix has helped or not. I think he will be close to the pace and come closing late to hit the ticket a decent price. Jojo’s Journey (1) is the morning line favorite after a strong effort from post 7 against easier company. He has drawn the rail before against this group and didn’t fire, could very well be a false favorite tonight.
Race 8- Kicks off the $10,000 Pick 4 (14% Takeout) and has a little bit of value early and a lot of value late. Battle Call (1) is making his 3rd start on Lasix tonight and is moving up in class again after just missing last time out. He draws the rail and has speed that others in this field do not which should help secure a victory tonight. Wayne The Lefty (9) has looked very sharp since coming to Northfield. He gets a good draw and should be following Battle Call off the gate. Sinners Prayer (3) won in his last start against this group. Has had a lot of luck against this group, which will make him a legitimate choice to provide some upset factor in the Pick 4.
Race 9- Is in 1st off the claim for trainer Mike Dowdall who is a 22% winner and in the money 47% of the time when in this position. Born American (9) got a beautiful trip from post 8 and then tired late in the mile. Tonight he will be following the early pace which should allow him to trip out. Net Revenue (1) is one of the more consistent horses that has been racing at this level. She gets a very good draw to the inside and should be the early pace setter. Wishin Iwas Fishin (4) is a horse who is moving up in class off some strong races against lower level claimers. If he minds his manners, he should be close. Powerful Valor (6) tired badly in the stretch and was placed 5th is his last start. Should be able to hit the ticket with a good trip.
Race 10- As a bettor one thing that you have to be able to do is throw out a race and that is what we are doing with Megalodon’s (7) last race. He stepped up to a difficult class in his last start and just didn’t fire. Tonight he drops back down to a class he has done very well at and picks up Hunter Myers who consistently gets along with this horse. Just Nattie (1) just missed against this group in her last start just getting edged out at the wire. She has the speed to help her, the question is will she hold on late. JD’s Military Star (3) made up five lengths in the stretch last time and went absolutely no where in fact lost a position. This week he gets the same inside draw, not really sure what to make of him after his last start. I would use on the ticket. Oaks Crown (2) is another horse who needs his last start thrown out. Gets a good draw with speed on the inside, the only issue is he likes to tire late. Expect him to hold on to complete the super.
Race 11- Timesawasteing (1) didn’t get a good trip against this type of group from post 7, so I would toss it. He won four straight against lower level company, give him another shot especially if the morning line odds hold up. Urlacker (3) really surprised me in his last start making up 5 1/2 lengths turning for home which is almost unheard of. He is stepping up in class tonight for the first time, hoping that he will make an impression on this group. Crosswinds Dodger (6) is the morning line favorite and I’m not really sure what to think of him. He gets a little bit of a tough draw towards the outside, but he is dropping in class. He should be close to the pace and definitely used in the Pick 4 sequence. C Note (2) is facing a little bit easier company this week, I am hoping he gets off the car a little bit more quickly this week.
Race 12- Herbie L (1) is the prominent morning line favorite against a very good group, but he should over match these. He draws the rail and really closed well against this class two starts back, expecting a very strong effort, unfortunately at a very short price. Who says you can’t make any money with a morning line favorite? We are going to go for a little bit of value with our second choice in Malia (4) who hasn’t had the best luck against upper level conditioned horses. She draws well this week and the class drop may help. Elian’s Valentine (9) is in 1st off the layoff this week after being scratched last time out. She draws well this week for a trainer who is in the money 50% of the time. Hemlock Tough Guy (2) is stepping up in class after a game effort from post 4 last out.
Race 13- The Super Hi-5 tonight is full of value plays and several horses dropping in class which makes it a little tough to play. Jetstreamdonttouch (9) didn’t get the best trip from post eight in his last start. He is taking a pretty big drop in class this week and will follow just a little bit of speed to the inside. I have a feeling Sutton will try to be a little aggressive here and try to be forwardly placed. Eldon Murray (1) is stepping up in class after a good finish from post 9 where he tripped out. Tonight he draws the rail against a good group and is hoping his 2nd trip to Northfield is a successful one. Explodent (3) hasn’t been too hot since being claimed on December 12. Tonight he draws the inside against lower level company which should make him a contender at least to hit the board. Beans and Weenies (5) is taking a step back in class after a tough performance from post 5 last time out. He draws well and gets along with Wyatt Irvine. Thisoneandonemore (4) will probably be closer to the pace than I have him here, but I’m not sure how to gauge his last couple of efforts.
Race 14- Absolute Purity (3) was a game second against this group last week at pretty big odds. Tonight he should provide a little bit of value to the daily double sequence. Elocutionist (1) dropped to this class last time out and didn’t draw the best which makes him a little bit of a question mark horse. I would use on the exotics, but be careful of the short price. Beach Boy Toy (2) closed strongly over a sloppy track last time out to finish 3rd against this group. Draws well this week and picks up Merriman who he has been known to get along with. Jojo In The Sky (5) hasn’t hit the board in 2017, but he has shown his way into a couple superfectas, why not take a chance.
Race 15- Dontu Get Lonely (1) is stepping up in class tonight after a dominating victory in his last start. It’s really hard to tell what happened in his last effort as snow blocked most of the charted line, but he tired horribly to finish 8th. Giving another shot tonight from the rail. Megatron (7) was parked the mile in his 1st trip to Northfield last time out. Driver change to Wrenn could make the difference here. Royal Kee Wee N (2) closed very well from off the pace last time out, but was only passing tired horses in the stretch. The draw plays to his favor tonight. Touch And Go (9) could provide some shock value as he hasn’t drawn well at all in his previous four starts and could be the value to your superfecta.
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(Northfield photo from harnesslink)