Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, February 13, 2017
Northfield Park (Harness Racing)
Tonight, we’re taking it to Northfield Park in Ohio, where big cards and big fields are the name of the game. On this Monday night, we’ve got Michael Carter (@mcarte1) providing FREE picks & analysis of the entire 16-race program.
Michael serves as the assistant director of mutuels and backup track announcer at Northfield. He’s also the co-host of the Post Time with Mike & Mike radio show, which has new episodes every Thursday night. Give Michael a follow on twitter, and be sure to check out his radio broadcasts as well.
First post time tonight at Northfield, as it is every night, is 6:00 PM EST.
Take it away, Michael!
$1.00 Pick 5 (Race 3)
5,6,8/1,6,9/1,2,4,7/1,2/2,3,4 – Cost: $216
$1.00 Pick 4 (Race 8) Guaranteed Pool $10,000
2,4,5/2,3,8/2,9/3,7 – Cost: $36.00
$.20 Super Hi-5 (Race 13) Guaranteed Pool $10,000
3,9/1,3,9/1,2,3,9/1,2,3,8,9/ALL – Cost: $16.00
Race 1- Wheres The Clicker (1) didn’t get the best trip against tougher company last week from post eight. This week he draws the rail and is dropping down in class to face easier. He has some early speed and tends to be a very consistent horse, expecting a big effort against this group tonight. Guth (5) this gelding is moving up in class tonight to face tougher after a very big effort last week. Tonight he gets a middle of the road draw and has a strong closing kick. Cash On Delievery (3) is the price play horse here who has had two tough efforts and two game finishes. He draws towards the inside this week and that could play to his advantage. Ergo Hanover (2) was claimed two starts back then taken to Buffalo to qualify. He has had some time off and that could help him out.
Race 2- This is a race that has the potential have some value shine through from horses that are dropping down in class. Let Loose Hanover (4) is taking a massive drop in class after 3rd place effort last time where he really didn’t seem to advance. He has a very strong ability to hit the board and the consistency helps. Hare Craft (1) draws inside this week after a parked out effort from post 3 in his last effort. He has a little bit of speed, but could be overmatched against this group. I expect him to provide some value to the exotics. Art’s Delight (5) picks up R. Wrenn Jr. again this week after a couple of good efforts. Facing some tough company in here, but should be close to the pace. Thinkofagameplan (6) is the morning line favorite for trainer Ron Burke. He hasn’t been the most consistent horse as of late and could very well be a false favorite.
Race 3- Kicks off a very competitive Pick 5 (14% Takeout) sequence. Noble Legend (5) has been racing really well since coming to Northfield just a couple starts back. Is back up in class this week against a very competitive field for trainer Maria Rice. Outburst (8) went right to the lead last time out and never looked back. Tonight he gets a tough draw on the outside and will have his work cut out for him from post eight. Kirty Dream (6) has won two of his last three starts and has been moving up in class very nicely. Draw hurts a little, but he has been known to show speed against this group before.
Race 4- Crank It Up (9) from post 9 could really present some value in a group that hasn’t been the most consistent of horses. He draws the 2nd tier this week which means he will be behind inside horses that have a little bit of early speed. Savannah Splendor (1) is the morning line favorite coming of a win in his 1st start off the claim for trainer Herman Hagerman. He is dropping in class off that effort which puzzles me a little bit, but he should have no issues here. Shaguar (6) is a dropping in class this week to face easier company after a tough effort from post 3. This horse doesn’t draw the best, but has been known to show speed from here before. Rountuit Bluegrass (7) draws tough this week, but has a powerful closing kick that could help with the superfecta wagers.
Race 5- Oneeyedmomma (4) was parked the mile in her last start where she tired to finish 5th only missing by 4 lengths. Tonight she draws well and is hoping to improve off of that effort. If she is close to the pace, she could spring a minor upset. Swan Leader (7) dropped down to this class last time out and was charging hard late in the mile. Tonight he draws a little bit tougher this week, but still could improve off of that effort. Carves Dinero (2) is hoping a jump in class will make him a winner tonight. Two starts back he went right to the lead and never looked back, hoping for some value from the inside, but that may not happen here. Rose Run Quasar (1) is a mare that you should throw her last two starts out. She should make a good effort from the rail in her first real test against these.
Race 6- Movin’ N Shakin’ (2) dropped in class last week and got an absolutely no excuses trip and just couldn’t pull it off. If Kash gets him into a good spot, he should win with no issues. Ewald Hanover (1) is dropping down to face easier company this week after some tough efforts against tougher. If he minds his manners, he should have no issues against this class. Idbegoodatthat (4) has been kind of hit or miss against this class, but has the speed to hit the board. Dannys Man (9) could be the upsetter facing some easier company after facing some upper level horses last out. Draws behind a couple of speed horses which could play to his advantage.
Race 7- Ray Hall (2) faces this group again this week after a game trip from post 8 where he only missed by 2 lengths. If you can get the 7/1 ML here that would be very generous as he could present, some shock value to the favorites. Sandys Victory (4) is hoping that a return to Northfield will be a winning effort. She draws well this week after two tough trips at Miami Valley. She gets over the track very well and that should play to her advantage. Gwally (9) has been bouncing around where he races the last few starts for trainer David Russo including at one race stint at Yonkers. He draws the 2nd tier and is facing much easier company, value factor here is huge. Reverand Speed (3) is another horse that could add plenty of value underneath. He was 3rd against this group last time out, and there should be no reason he can’t repeat that tonight.
Race 8- This race kicks off the $10,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 (14% takeout). Pan Street USA (4) pick up Sugg this week after winning against lower level conditioned company in his last start. He has a lot of early speed to work with and since there is not a ton of it inside of him, he may be able to clear early. Voltaire (5) was my top selection last week against lower level company, but is taking a big hike in class this week. Has two wins to his credit since coming to Northfield. Don’t Tell Rusty (2) is one of the more consistent horses in the group and should be the odds on favorite. Definitely worth a play tonight.
Race 9- Southwind Amazon (8) is just that, an absolute amazon. He has won 4 of his last six starts and hasn’t missed the board in quite some time. He is the single if you are looking for one in the Pick 4 sequence. Classic Gent (3) closed in on the leaders in his last start, but just couldn’t get there last out. He has won the Open before, but will need a little bit more here. Bettor’s Choice (2) was 2nd against Open company last week closing home in a very quick 27 4/5. That time matched Southwind Amazon. If anyone has a shot to beat him the play will come from here. Mr De Luca (4) has won two straight races against lower level company. Moving up in class, but I can’t let Ron Burke go off at 10/1 or higher no matter how tough the race.
Race 10- Twin B Stingray (9) is up in class after a very good performance racing after taking off for a little over three months. He draws a little bit tough this week as there isn’t a ton of speed towards the inside, but I have a feeling Wrenn could get him into a good striking spot, then come first up. Sammy Said (2) has a big throw out race in his last start where he had broken equipment. Tonight he drops in class and will definitely provide a little bit of value to the Pick 4 sequence tonight. Capital Account (7) was a winner against lower level company in his last start showing a lot of early speed. Tonight he draws tough and has performed well against these before, expecting another good trip. Southwind Torque (4) is a new shooter coming to Northfield for trainer Maria Rice. He draws well and is facing a lot tougher, throw out the last race from post 7.
Race 11- Glory Beach (7) got a horrendous trip last week and came flying home to win easily going away. Tonight he draws the outside against the same class and if he can close like that again tonight he will be the one to beat. Hasty Western (3) is one of the more consistent horses as far as hitting the board goes, but he doesn’t win a ton. Expect him to give a very good effort, just not a winning one. Cactus Billy (4) is another very consistent gelding who has been racing well since moving up to this class. He draws well and has some speed to work with, expect a strong effort. Lotsa Chrome (6) is jumping in class after a game winning effort last time out for trainer Ron Burke. He could be another big price this week to complete the superfecta.
Race 12- Tidewater Teddy (4) has had some tough trips from the outside and that has hindered his performance. Tonight he draws inside and is looking to improve off that effort. Electric Chapel N (1) was claimed two starts back and tired badly in his last effort. He gets a good post again this week and shouldn’t have to work as hard to get to the top, expect this one to definitely hit the board. Double Dribble (2) dropped in class last out and didn’t get the best trip from post 9. Hoping for a little bit stronger effort tonight to hit the trifecta ticket. Majo Christmasgift (7) has hit the board in his last two starts against the $8,000 claimers. He draws a little bit tougher, but he has been known to be able to hit the board from here before.
Race 13- Hanky L (3) closed very strongly and had to come three wide to do it last out and just missed at the wire. He hasn’t drawn the best recently, and has a strong ability to show up against this class. Cams Fernando (9) will be able to follow some early speed on the inside which should play to his advantage. He is dropping down in class tonight to face a little bit easier company. Raiders Boy (1) is another class dropper that gets the benefit of the rail tonight. He doesn’t have a lot of early speed, but he does have the ability to trip out which could happen here. Stevie Diamonds (2) went to the lead in his last start and tired late against lower level company. He can hit the Hi-5 part of the ticket, but I think that’s about it. Sinners Prayer (8) is a horse that has been very consistent against lower level company. Moving up in class and will have a tough trip from the outside, but should be close.
Race 14- Bad Bug (9) is dropping in class this week and while he has speed that is much the best against this group he will have to follow the inside horses. I have a feeling Wrenn will pocket up early then come first up, he should be much the best here. Ideal Rowan (4) didn’t look the best last week from post 8, but lets throw that start out. Tonight he faces the same group, he should get into a good early spot and then come home strongly. Dashpedia (1) was a horse I supported last week and he didn’t show up against upper level claimers. He draws very well this week and is looking for a good trip against lower level company. Explodent (5) is another horse that I have supported in the past and has looked very good. Tonight he draws well and will hope to use a class drop to his advantage.
Race 15- OK Geronimo (6) is taking a big drop in class to face easier company this week and gets a decent draw. He has some early speed which should play to his advantage. Gold Coast Muscle (9) was a horse I really supported three starts back, but didn’t perform that well. He has not had much luck post draw wise, but tonight he will follow inside speed. One to Draw to (1) is the morning line favorite even after finishing 7th in his last start. He gets another good draw to the inside and has a strong ability to show speed. Or (5) has shown that he can compete at this level from any post in his last two starts. He doesn’t have a ton of speed, but he is a horse that has a ton of late kick.
Race 16- Reckoning Day (9) is the epitome of consistency as of late against the $6,000 claiming level. He can show speed and he can come from off the pace that will make him extremely powerful. Feets of Magic (4) was a winner against this class last time out and has won 3 of his last three. He draws well this week and should be close to the ticket. Born to RockN Roll (2) tired after going to the top last time out and just wasn’t the best. He gets a tough draw on the outside, but could very well provide value to the ticket. Bettor Design (6) showed a ton of speed in his last two starts and has been very successful. Gets a good draw and should be close here.
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