Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, July 19, 2015
On Sunday, we’re headed back out to Monmouth Park, where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS for the entire card from our friend and returning guest handicapper Rob Harding (@Harding_Rob).
Rob has been a constant of late on DanonymousRacing.com and we’re happy to announce that he’ll be providing picks and analysis both here and on TheRacingBiz.com every Sunday for the remainder of the Monmouth meet. We’re looking forward to it! Take it away, Rob…
Happy to be back for another go around for Dan and once again thankful for the opportunity. We are only two short weeks away from the Haskell Invitational, but still 6 racing cards to go before we can worry about that.
#2 Charlies Rainbow 12-1
#3 Musket Mary 4-5
#5 House Red 9-2
#2 Charlie’s Rainbow had excuses in both prior efforts here at the shore, finally broke alertly on the jock switch from Soto to Ferrer and could be on the improve off that career best number last time. In a relatively weak field, cannot hurt to take a shot at a bit of a price. #4 Musket Mary has gotten really good after shipping in from Tampa, and will now step up off the claim for Pat McBurney a 25% angle (2/8). Horse looks the fastest in paper, but it seems that just about everyone in this field has shown good gate speed. Claiming off Gerald Bennett and Claudio Gonzalez is no cake walk, either. At 4-5 or lower, tough to take, but a contender. #5 House Red goes turf to dirt for Tim Shaw, competed against better in the start before that, and set a very fast tempo in the race before that before fading late. Horse has basically faced better during his 12 race career and is spotted well for another go around for Shaw and Serpa, who usually do pretty well, particularly at a price, at the shore.
#8 Hunter Grey 8-1
#5 Malekith 3-1
#2 Zeal Genius 5-2
A whole lot of cheap speed signed on for the second race, which leads me to #8 Hunter Grey. Drops to the career low level, goes turf to dirt and the dirt race before that was extremely quick for the level. Should be well back early but could make a lot of noise late if the pace ensues like the PPS dictate it should. #5 Malekith posted a career best figure off the long layoff, now goes 2nd time off that long layoff and should have a little more in reserve for the stretch run. Looked like #2 Zeal Genius was home free last time out as Edwin Gonzalez hadn’t moved a muscle as they moved into the stretch, but he faltered late and poses the most upside of any of those who possess a good amount of early speed.
#7 Yourthekingjimmy 4-5
#1 Citis Ablaze 5-1
#6 Full Pads 9-2
I really hate picking short priced favorites, but it is impossible to get past #7 Yourthekingjimmy in the 3rd. He is clearly, and by far, the fastest horse in the race and should win this by 8. Of the rest, #1 Citi’s Ablaze drops to the career low level and trainer Spina takes the blinkers off, a 50% angle (2 for 4). #6 Full Pads set a slow pace in the last in the slop, now cuts back and looks like the best of the rest.
#5 Rocket Dee 15-1
#4 Notably Awesome 12-1
#11 Elmra 7-2
A really puzzling bottom level claimer that looks ripe for some sort of big price to spring up. There are quite a few horses in here who I played last time, one of which is #5 Rocket Dee. Excuses in both of last two starts, but took money in the return and the bullet work last time is encouraging. One more time for me in this wide open event. #4 Notably Awesome nearly stole it two starts back at a huge number, and naturally regressed off that effort last time. A return to the race two back could make this guy a contender at another good price. #11 Elmra set a wicked pace last time, drops from 9 to 5k and Paco sticks around. If Musket Mary easily handles her foes earlier on the card, give this guy a second look, albeit at a short number.
#7 Quiet Ray 10-1
#11 King Gatto 9-2
#1 How You 7-2
If I get 10-1 on #7 Quiet Ray, I will be shocked. Horse ran so, so well in a 40 claimer in the initial turf try. Since then, has tried 2 MSW turfers and had one in the slop. Excuse all three, hes back where he fits, and belongs, and will (wrongfully) be a big price because of it. One of my favorites on the card. #11 King Gatto, should he draw in, looms a major player for Spieth and Pecoraro. Pecararo is 5/25 (20%) going spring to route, and has run well in both. I don’t foresee the mile as a huge obstacle here. #1 How You takes a big drop from MSW to Mdn 35, and has run against some good horses. Initial turf try was fine and is a major player in here.
#5 Saturday Special 8-5
#6 Stolen Love 3-1
#1 Gypsy Baron 4-1
The 6th looks chalky, as #5 Saturday Special easily handled one of his main rivals, #6 Stolen Love, in their last race. Not sure why Navarro put this one on the turf two back, but hes got this guy going great guns on the main and would not surprise me to see this one near even money as post time nears. The aforementioned #6 ran well 2nd off the layoff last time, but you wont be getting 7-1 today. Still looms a shot at a slighter number this time around. #1 Gypsy Baron faced a horse with backclass who was claimed by Jamie Ness and destroyed the competition last time, so have to respect again as this field looks like it’s a bit softer.
#4 Dubai Time 15-1
#10 Logan Street 10-1
#9 Cement Clement 5-2
This is a fascinating race, as on paper it looks like the pace should be absolutely blistering, setting it up for a couple of horses to come off the pace. Lasso, Cement Clement, and Cut to Order all pose a great deal of speed, and if they all decide to run their races, it could spell trouble for all of their chances. The only thing #4 Dubai Time needs is a swift pace up front to ensure the running of his best effort. In the return to MTH on May 9th, however, there was a good amount of speed and he ran on admirably. Hes a 3 time winner on the Monmouth grass and trainer Ryan does his best work on the grass (See Quiet Ray previously). #10 Logan Street won in the return to the races in a starter allowance at Parx off a long layoff, now steps up considerably, but Paco stays on. Another midpack runner who could benefit from a duel. #9 Cement Clement is razor sharp, and if not softened up by the others, will be mighty hard to run down in the lane off that very credible effort against Kharafa last time out.
#8 Sunday Sonnet 5-1 ML
#1 Maybe Tonight 8-1 ML
#7 Tidal Surge 2-1 ML
#8 Sunday Sonnet ran a career best fig in the slop last time, and while it could be said it was due to the soft going, the best of 66 bullet work is encouraging. Looks like this 3 y/o is getting good for Breen and Paco. #1 Maybe Tonight has some of the best figs in the field ships into Monmouth off a win at Parx. Slight step up here but is going in the right direction. #7 Tidal Surge won in the initial start, going a mile, for Clement and McCarthy. Best beyer in the field and a repeat would make this one very tough.
#2 Nickys Brown Miss 10-1 ML
#8 Glory Style 15-1 ML
#10 Forest Funds 7-2 ML
#2 Nickys Brown Miss faces her weakest career field in a route today, which is what she prefers as opposed to the sprint she participated in last time. Tactical enough to sit behind the early leaders and draw off in the lane. The races this winter are much better than this one. Another price I like quite a bit. #8 Glory Style goes back to the preferred surface and just missed twice at lower levels prior. Has shown me enough kick late to pose a threat against better. #10 Forest Funds goes first off the claim for 20% Preciado, but he is 0/10 at the current MTH meet. Likely pacesetter will be on the engine early.
#8 Spark 5-1
#2 Sky Gold 4-1
#1 Bustin Out 8-1
Race 10 goes as the Miss Woodford, and there are a lot of really fast fillies in here. #8 Spark has shown the ability to rate, but that last effort against Cavorting was mighty impressive as she set a torrid pace and just gave it up in the lane late. Cancel ships over along with her and I would hope Jerkens has told him to sit midpack and get first run on the deep closers. #2 Sky Gold ships up from Gulstream after disposing of foes easily in the slop. Horse looks like a need the lead type who will be gunning early but could just be that good. #1 Bustin Out has easily been the most visually impressive winner of the meet, on multiple occasions, having been geared down by Ferrer. Filly has never been asked for her best and while this is a steep class hike, wouldn’t surprise me to see her run well.
#7 Charlesbrecknridge 5-1
#4 Class and Cash 2-1
#5 Tuneintobow 4-1
#7 Charlesbrecknridge goes first time turf for Tim Richardson and Centeno. Toss the last as wanted no part of two turns. Horse has run well on the dirt, and the switch to turf should only help this one out of an Officer mare. #4 Class and Cash goes dirt to turf, has shown good speed, drops and is out of Exchange Rate. Makes sense at a short price. #5 Tuneintobow was bet like he couldn’t lose last time, but did, now switches to turf out of Concorde’s Tune and its pretty telling Bravo sticks around in race 11 to ride.
Rob Harding is an avid horseplayer who recently completed his Masters in Accounting from Fordham University. He is a big Mets and Giants fan, and now lives in New York City. His favorite horse of all time is Animal Kingdom. Rob can be found on Twitter @Harding_Rob.
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