Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Friday, October 26, 2016
On Thursday at Keeneland and we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from our friend and returning guest handicapper Brett Strong (@Storiesdub).
We thank Brett for his thorough writeup today. He’s a regular contributor on Danonymous Racing and he always puts in the work. Give him a follow when you get a chance.
Take it away, Brett…
Should be a decent day today here in Lexington, Ky. Might see some rain early but should clear out around noon and don’t expect it to affect much. Good luck today and I hope everyone has enjoyed the meet as we are almost done! I know, I’m sad too! Good luck and have a great day!
R6- 1,2,4,5,10 (If Commandeering doesn’t get in, I’d debate leaving 1 out)
With #1 in 1st leg – $90
Without #1 in 1st leg – $72
Race 1- 1-5-4
Malibubu gets the nod here. Turns back a little from last out and has the speed to get it done. Leparoux is riding well and the field isn’t great. G Miracle will need to wire to win and not sure that sets up well for this one here. With a shot and worth a look if the price is right. Includere actually steps up off a quick turn around but seems to be in good form. Should be the shortest price so I’ll probably stay off this one to win but must use underneath.
Race 2- 4-6-5
Urban Bourbon is better than this group and doesn’t need to be stellar to win it. Interesting move to go from turf to dirt on the drop so I’m kind of confused why this one is in this spot but still has the most going do it in the race. Uncle Muggs has solid speed figures and gets a cut back in distance from last out which is a solid play going 7 furlongs. Copper Hill fits with this group and is also cutting back. Add in Geroux picking up the mount at almost 20% win rate and worth a look for the right price.
Race 3- 7-3-9
Kismet’s Heels looms over this group and has been working very well in preparation for the return off the layoff. All going to depend on if this one needs a race. 24% rider for a 26% trainer, that has to be respected. G. Motion has been hot this meet and gets a first timer in this race. Works are okay and this one should take to the grass pretty easily. If the morning line price holds, will be tough to stay off of. Sharp is still 0’fer this meet and while I think he doesn’t get it here, Collateral Kitten is in with a shot. Gets rider upgrade and distance won’t be an issue.
Race 4- 5-7-9
Tiz Town goes turf to dirt here in a move where the trainer has a slight positive lean in. Drops in class and has been working well since taking some time off. Pinson looks ready to roll and will be a formidable favorite. Leparoux/Maker/Rasmey at Keeneland is a solid look. Will take a fair amount of money so don’t expect a decent price. Aegis comes in for the aforementioned hot Graham Motion. Gets Geroux to jump on board and this one has shown some ability.
Race 5- 9-6-10
Guidon has the speed to get out front and run away with this one. Not a huge fan of the jockey but this one is the price that makes sense in a not so great field. Just like the last race, Persuasion is a Leparoux/Maker/Ramsey runner who will take $ at the windows. Got a nice work in, in between races for this meet and will be in the mix. Scattered Cash drops in class here and catches a group he can beat. Santana Jr. rides speed pretty well and Scattered Cash should take a step forward second off the layoff.
Race 6- 10-2-4
Nice MSW race here. A few different ways you could go. I’m going to land on Vive Le Roi for Casse with Jose Ortiz up. This one didn’t catch the break it looks like in debut and never really got going. With the added distance and Casse hitting at 21% in second starts, looks the one to beat. Gets to break from the outside in a big field which I think can only help here. Big Bend draws the rail and that’s not a bad place to be going this distance. Castanon rides for Proctor on a decent turn around but they also got a work in which was a nice bullet work. This leads me to believe this one should be ready to go. I think the added distance helps and it’ll be the 3rd start of the cycle. J Boys Echo ran well on debut and looks poised to improve in its second start. Breaks down by the rail so Albarado can’t let this one get shuffled back. Needs to keep on or very near the front to have a chance. If Commandeering draws in, goes to top choice.
Race 7- 6-4-1
Tell The Truth didn’t like the dirt last time out so that race is a toss for me. Motion brings this one back to turf and puts Leparoux up and should be a formidable favorite although I think you’ll still see a decent price since this field is competitive. Casse’s Ministers Strike took a lot of money and won on debut. It was against lesser foes but did go a route of ground in that debut so I look for this one to improve today off that win. Preemptive Strike has been working very nicely since coming to Keeneland and has some decent experience. The rail post is a good place to be here and Colebrook can fire home some solid prices here at Keeneland. Should stay a big price.
Race 8- 2-1-4
This is Dazzling Gems race to lose. Has faced and run better versus tougher but I’m leery of Albarado on a favorite at Keeneland so it’s a slight edge for top spot. Bird Song was well beaten after stepping up to a graded stakes level. Comes back down to a more likely level and I find it interesting that BJ Hernandez ended up on this one and Jose Ortiz on Dolphus considering it looks like it should have been the opposite. Don’t think you have to go much farther than the four inside posts for multi race wagers.
Race 9- 7-9-5
I like a couple prices in here and expect to end the day with a double digit winner. Uncle Guy checks a lot of boxes for me here and will go as top choice. Ken Ramsey wants that owners title and this is one he has to like the chances of. Works look good, gets great turf jockey but this field is tough. Patterson Cross probably took on too much ground last time out. Shortens up a touch and gets a slight upgrade in the saddle to Jose Ortiz. Mott is 0’fer this meet but this one has a legit chance to get him off the goose egg. Florent Geroux gets on board with Circus Performer who is going second off the claim to Catalano, a move in which he is 25% with. Repeat of previous performances would win this race and will be a very big price. I’d recommend spreading pretty deep here in multi race wagers.
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