Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, December 4, 2016
It’s a great Sunday of racing action at Gulfstream Park today, and that means we’ve got Paul Hundley (@vapaul67) providing FREE picks & analysis.
We encourage you to give Paul a twitter follow; his Gulfstream analysis will be featured on the site every Sunday during their championship meet.
Take it away, Paul!
Hello Horse Racing Fans and welcome to my weekly Sunday column where we analyze each race on the Sundaycard and try to flush out some winners, hopefully ones with some value. My name is Paul Hundley, you may know me from Twitter if you follow me @vapaul67 . For the other 99% of you, I appreciate you taking the time to read my column, and I want to send a big THANK YOU to Managing Editor John Piassek for giving me this forum. In the coming weeks I plan on offering some Handicapping tips/angles that have helped me over the years, but this week let’s get right into the races!!
RACE 1 : 1 1/16th MILE (TURF) F&M 3 YR OLD & UP, Claiming 16K n2L
8- YES MONGOLIA : I’m drawing a line through most of her last 6 races because they don’t apply to today’s race. She had 2 nice races early in her career @ Gulfstream in MSW’s & should be a lot closer to pace today reuniting with jockey Emisael Jaramillo. Today’s race is the lowest level she has raced at. Trainer Enebish Ganbat is 5/16 going Dirt 2 Turf with a +2.05 ROI
7-AUGUST LILY : She definitely has good early speed and been competitive @ Gulfstream. Just worried today’s distance might be too far.
1- LILIES AND ROSES : Drops to lowest claiming level of career and gets very adept turf rider in Paco Lopez.
RACE 2 : 6 FURLONGS, 3 YR OLD & UP, Claiming 30K n2L
3- AWESOME TYPE: Believe he can either go for the lead early or stalk early leader. Even though 10/28 race was technically at a lower level than today, it was at Keeneland which is usually a high caliber meet terms of quality.
1- WILD GOOD: Jaramillo may take horse to the front early from rail post. Best race on his PPs wins this.
4- GRAND NENE: Off 4 1/2 months, 1st try at 6 furlong distance, gets Antonio Gallardo as rider today and is coming off a win.
RACE 3: 1 MILE, 2 YR OLD FILLIES, Maiden Claiming $12.5K
5- KATIRA : This FIRST DUDE Filly has had 4 previous races, but is taking a major drop in class from the MC 50K she was entered for last race. 3 races back she had a very nice 2nd at Gulfstream in which the 3rd place horse, DEVILISH ROMANCE, came back to win next out. Trainer Ronnie Werner adds Blinkers to her and switches back to dirt.
1- SYNCHRONIZING : She has been bet like she was a live horse in races run at a higher level than today’s contest. Also showed decent early speed last race again vs tougher.
9- BELLA BIONDETTI : Trainer Mike Maker is 21% 1st time entering a horse in a Maiden Claiming event. She is dropping from Florida Bred MSW and gets high % jock Gallardo to ride.
RACE 4: 6 FURLONGS, 3 YR OLD & UP, Claiming $6,250 n2L
5- HOMER MATT : This $625K Fasig Tipton purchase came back after a 1 year layoff to speed off to an easy win in a Mdn Clming $16K event. Trainer Navarro has been killing it winning at a 30% clip for 2016.
6- DIVINE DEACON : Has a 3rd & 2nd @ today’s level. Was given an easy 3 furlong maintenance work since last race.
2- AGGRESSIVE DRIVER : Promising career first 3 races, but has been off 11 months, has a limited work pattern, and is taing a very suspiciously large class drop. Really should see a race from him.
RACE 5: 7 ½ FURLONGS (TURF), MSW 42K, 2 YR OLDS
9- OUR WAR EAGLE: Was 2nd beaten only a neck in turf debut 10/28. There are concerns with him since this is a 2 turn event, being drawn in the 9 hole with the very short run into first turn Jockey Paco Lopez is going to have to decide whether to take him to the front early or to try and save ground and mount a come from behind strategy.
1- MR. MEISTER: Was 3rd/11 in debut @ Laurel, is very well bred for either turf or dirt and should be able to save all the ground from rail post.
4- COMMANDER WISE: A 1st time starter and of the FTS’s in this race the 3 will probably be bet lower than this horse Commander appeals to me more because his sire has just as good a success rate with debuting turf runners as 3 does plus he has a series of works on the turf.
RACE 6: 7½ FURLONGS (TURF), F & M 3 YR OLD & UP, MSW 42K
1- PEGASUS KITTEN: Is a FTS but Ramseys thought enough of her to keep to race for themselves plus be patient enough with her since she is almost 4 making her first start. Sire Kittens Joy is 16% 1st turf and trainer Mike Maker 19%.
4- MOONLESS SKY: Pair of 2nds to start career including last race @ 1 mile on turf @ Gulfstream West.
3- ON BOARD: Another FTS , this one for Todd Pletcher, who is 21% with FTS’s. Shows a long steady pattern of workouts.
Race 7: 7 FURLONGS, 2 YR OLD FILLIES, MSW 42K
12- PRAY FOR BOURBON: Makes 4th career start and has faced some of the better 2 yr old fillies in country racing in the tough N.Y. circuit. Bet with caution however she has been beaten favorite 2 straight races.
5- SAND SHARK: Was 2nd/7 in debut on a sloppy track. Pletcher is 28% 2nd career race. She also has 2 bullet works since debut that suggest she is dangerous again today.
7- SIPMYCHARDONNAYNAE: Beaten fav in debut at Gulfstream, puts Blinkers ON for Trainer Ralph Nicks who is 23% 2nd career race. Switches to Paco Lopez.
RACE 8: 1 1/16 MILE (TURF) 3 YR OLD & UP, Claiming $30K n2L
5- LOTTERY TICKET: Today is 1st time trainer Ralph Nicks has him in for a tag. Horse has shown talent in the past, was ITM 3 consecutive races during last yrs Championship meet here at Gulfstream.
6- BINGO KITTEN: Also 1st time in for a tag. He has been beaten Last 2 races though vs tougher than today.
2– CAVITY: ITM over half of 12 career races, reunites with rider who guided him to lone victory.
RACE 9: 6 FURLONGS, 3 YR OLD & UP, Optional Claiming $62.5K
3- MR. BAKER: Deserving favorite has won last 2 when racing at today’s level. Also has won 5 of last 6 times he went off as post time favorite.
6- YELLOW CHIPS: Though horse has been well beaten last 2 races he did run 2nd in a Grade 3 three races back. Should be picking off horses late.
8- YOURDREAMSORMINE: Has placed in exacta last 7 races including last 3 times at today’ level. Has been a beaten favorite last 2 races.
RACE 10: 7 ½ FURLONGS (TURF), 2YR OLD FILLIES, Maiden Claiming $25K
8- GRACE’S DRAMA: Was 2nd @ distance and level last race at Gulfstream West. Had actually taken lead in the stretch before fading 4 lengths behind winner. Jockey Julien Leparoux may give her a more patient ride. He and trainer Mark Casse red hot together last 60 days winning 31% and 54% ITM.
10- PARKERELIZABETH: 2nd @ level last race at 5 furlongs, stretches out to 2 turns for first time. Which being by BC TURF Champion ENGLISH CHANNEL, is probably what she needs.
6- MY LITTLE PRINCESS: Was 3rd last race 1 ¼ lengths behind the 8. Switches to Jose Lezcano.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.