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Picks of the Day Submitted by You!
Saturday, December 5, 2015
On Saturday, we’re headed out to Gulfstream Park, where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS on Opening Day of the Championship Meet from returning guest handicapper Mark DiLorenzo Jr. (@MarkDiloJr).
Mark is another one of our favorite young and passionate handicappers. He’ll be providing his picks and analysis at Gulfstream on Saturdays throughout the meet. We’re thrilled to have him with us and encourage you to follow him on Twitter, when you get a chance. Take it away, Mark…
#Giddy Up!!! Opening Day at Gulfstream Park and I’m ready to break quick from the gate! I want to thank Dan for letting me be a part of his great site each Saturday during the Gulfstream Park Championship meet!!!
From my “Horse War Room” in NJ as I type, I have been told that Races 1, 5, and 8 are OFF the TURF today and RACES 3 and 10 stay on the Good Turf Course. As my father always told me “DO AS LITTLE GUESSING AS POSSIBLE” and when races switch surfaces you are forced to do some guessing.
Every time I post my picks I will put the horse I like the most ON TOP, then a few horses I like UNDERNEATH (who I might play on top if I feel I’m getting an overlay, or track is playing a certain way), and some races a horse I’m going to talk about a horse I’m going to TOSS… (This will usually be a favorite that I’m against for a big reason and could save us some money on our horizontals.)
Follow me on Twitter if you want some updated picks along the way after scratches and seeing how the track is playing!!!
Good luck #GiddyUp #PrintSomeMoney!!! And “I hope you have a very good day…”–→ Great Let it Ride moment ☺ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43NA22EXrIY
On Top OFF Turf: #10 Giant Run (5-2): Last year it took Tom Albertrani months to win his first race at Gulfstream. It would be kind of funny if he won the 1st race this year. This 2yo colt broke fast and ran VERY fast splits on a grass course that was slightly closer favoring at Belmont on October 18th. He also ran a similar race on dirt two back going a mile at Belmont. Gets a big rider switch and should take lead and stay there.
Under: #16 Stradivari (4-1): If this race gets washed off, NO WAY this horse is 4-1. The dam was a GSW dirt sprinter and won as a 2yo. Last time out #16 was behind a rather slow pace on a speed favoring track. #dontFightTheToddster … Read below
On Top: #7 Zulu (2-1): Todd Pletcher first time out dirt sprints with 2yo, or early 3yo, are just off the charts. If you are a novice to the game, DO NOT leave Pletcher horses like this off your tickets. In your DRF you will see he is 22% first time out, but he is 33% with 2yo dirt sprinter and 38%!!! With 2yo dirt sprinters at Gulfstream!! #dontFightTheToddster Add all of this to a 2yo who is bred to win early…Zulu is a half to multiple Stakes winning 2 year olds!!!
Under: #10 Gold Shark (12-1) The only thing keeping me from singling Pletcher’s 2yo is #10 Gold Shark…First time out he broke very very well, ran very very fast splits early, on a muddy track AND is owned by Stronach Stables…(Stronach Group owns and operates Gulfstream Park,) and I saw many many times last meet them show up on a Saturday Gulfstream card and win.
On Top: #11 Seneca Destiny (12-1): I don’t normally like horses being claimed off top notch turf trainers but willing to make an exception here. This horse can run fast on soft ground and if they do stay on the turf that will come in handy. Last time out Leparoux made a move too early on a yielding course at Churchill. This 4yo filly will get blinkers off and race two back is more than fast enough to win.
Under: #3 LA Style (15-1) This is a wide open race and wouldn’t surprise me at all if this improving 3yo wins at a big price. Has been working strong, ran career top last out on same soft turf course, and should sit good trip behind the rail speed #1 and the outside speed #10 and #11.
On Top: #10 Roll On the Navajo (20-1): The deserving favorite in here will draw the rail #1 Twocubanbrothersu and I think he can win, and will use underneath, but let’s take a shot with a bomb. The times I hit with long shots are the times I look at a race and don’t like anyone else…here is the case. On September 5th #10 ran a very respectable race on an off track at Gulfstream. Today the track will be sloppy and I hope this IMPROVING 3yo sits a decent trip from an outside post and clears the field. His last 4 on turf he was running vs much better…and on Sep 5th got blocked while he was making a winning move…bombs away.
Under: #1 Twocubanbrothersu (9-5): faster than many of these and doesn’t mind the off track. Gets perfect post for running style and is the one to beat. Must use on horizontals. #2 Runs With Bulls (6-1) First time Walder on a horse that doesn’t need to make any huge strides to win this.
On Top on DIRT: As a friend of mine… @itsmevictoriag always says…never leave the MTO or AEs off your pk 4s or 5s…#14 Winning for Sarah (MTO) has shown she can run well on a wet dirt track. TOSS the last, as she was back behind a slow pace, vs a horse that got loose on the lead that won by 11.
On Top: #4 Old Times Sake (15-1): The horse to beat here is #9 Trouble Kid, who is coming out of a stakes win at Lrl on 11/14. As Harvey Pack always use to say, “Be wary of big favorites doing things for the first time.” #9 will be taking his first shot and 7 furlongs. He can win but I’ll use underneath. #4 Old Times Sake is my on top horse. Three back, this 4yo gelding was claimed and showed that he did not mind the GP slop. His splits on August 27th were VERY Fast early and folded coming home running an extra furlong than today’s distance. His race two back wins this race, where he closed into a modest pace, drew away, and ran a sheet number just as good as todays favorite. Last race he had the lead, on what should be today’s second choice #11 Grande Shores, but got beat by the 2/5 shot that day. But if you watch the replay #4 Old Times Sake never let Grande Shores go by past the wire. BIG rider change too… PACO is just one more reason I’ll be playing.
Under: #9 Trouble Kid (9/5): See above &…Is the speed of speed, stakes winner, and should sit perfect trip with nice outside post. #1 One More Night (20-1): Since Vitali claimed this horse has gotten faster. I’m afraid of this post but draws Irad (who isn’t on #7 Stallwalkin Dude!) if he can break fast and sit nice trip behind main speed, he can win.
Tossing: #7 Stallwalkin Dude (7-2) This Jacobson horse has done a ton of running this year, is getting slower, and if you remember back to last year, Jacobson did not have a great Gulfstream meet. I read the other day he will have a barn in Santa Anita this winter, and it just makes me wonder if there is something about his “training style” that doesn’t fit at Gulfstream.
On Top #4 B L’s Wagon (7-2): Late in the year I don’t like fillies and mares that look like they are going backwards. Once they lose form they need some time to get it back. #4 BLs Wagon is fresh and second time off a prep layoff. This 5yo mare has run some of her best races at this track, and at this distance. Last time out on November 6th she was behind a VERY SLOW pace and was closing. Look for a better pace set up with 5 horses in here battling on front end.
Under: #7 Moonshine Promise (6-1) Toss first time trainer switch to Peter Walder at your own risk. This 6yo mare shipping in from Thistledowns is fast enough to compete and should improve with a top notch trainer switch. JJ Castellano takes the lives mounts for this barn, and watch the tote…if this horse gets bet it is a must use in this soft field. #6 Aix En Provence (3-1) Another who should be coming in fresh and ran a HUGE race in the slop at Pimlico on April 10th.
Race 8: OFF THE TURF
On Top on DIRT: #9 Delta Bluesman (5-1) This 5yo gelding is faster on dirt. Connections might have been hoping this gets washed off, but was also fast enough to win on turf. Navarro second time off layoff is a master, and this 5yo gelding is taking a drop in class vs. what he ran against on November 7th. This horse is the speed of the speed on turf or dirt and if track is favoring speed… might be a single.
On Top: #10 Disarm (15-1): Two back this 5yo gelding was coming off a 76 day layoff and ran a neck behind likely favorite/second choice, #1 Alfredo Romana. Last race she was wide the entire way around sitting behind softer fractions at Laurel. Last year these connections tried her in this very spot and she didn’t run much. But this year she is third time off a layoff and will be a much bigger price.
Under: #12 Loverbil (7-2): Won this race last year and has consistently run faster races than these, but last year she was coming into race 3rd time off layoff, while this year she is coming in of 84 days rest. Don’t let that discourage you if you like, she has run well off 72 days rest before. #1 Alfredo Romana (4-1) is the speed of the speed and I’m interested to see how track is playing, (he caught two speed bias tracks on September 5th and July 29th) if favoring front end could be my on top horse.
Race 10: On Top: #1 Roman Approval (5-1): This race for me comes down to the two Mike Maker horses. I like the price on the outside horse better #12 Purely Boy, and trust JJ to put him into position to win, but I’m going to go with #1 Roman Approval on top. Last year on the turf at Gulfstream, you wanted to be not be on the lead, but at least near it, in two turn turf races. #1 Roman Approval has the gate speed and will sit a perfect ground saving trip to win this. The back class speaks for itself, as he ran a neck behind The Pizza Man (Arl Million winner) and behind Da Big Hoss (a talented turf colt who ran in the Breeders Cup Turf) Also both those efforts were on softer turf which is certain today…
Under: #12 Purely Boy (10-1) see above + has also shown ability to liked softer turf. If this race does fall apart on top, which it could if a speed duel developes I look for #10 Key to Power to pick up the pieces. Watch the replay of his race two back at Arlington, be sat behind a modest pace and made a huge move down the lane. Needed last and ran vs. much better.
On Top: #8 Rich Daddy (6-1): I see this race setting up with a bit of pace on the front end with #4, #7, and #14 all wanting the lead. This should set up the race perfectly for #8 Rich Daddy, who has shown he can win on this wet dirt course…and not only win but run some of the races fastest figures on this GP Sloppy track. He did get a very good set up in his first race off the bench but was razor sharp and looks to get another perfect set up today.
Underneath: #14 Mal Guapo (6-1) This horse has been a new animal since being claimed by Brad Cox on 5/31. Showed he loved the slop running a career top on 7/10, laid off, then won back to back very impressively. Reason I’m not playing on top is the post, as his last two wins he broke from rail (where he is comfortable) and cleared field. #4 Padilla (20-1) the trainer stats here, turf to dirt, and blinkers off are hard to ignore if this horse goes off at 20-1. Has also reportedly been working very well at GP with blinkers off, I’ll be using underneath.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.