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Picks of the Day Submitted by You!
Friday, January 20, 2015
On Friday, we’re headed back out to Gulfstream Park, where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from our friend Vince Matthews (@VinnyTheGreek).
We thank Vince for sharing his thoughts today and we invite you to play along. Good luck!
#6 Little Baker: sent out by high-percentage trainer Kirk Ziadie, and his early speed is also a huge asset in this spot. Looks too good for this field.
#1 Donegal Hall: may have to send hard out of the gate and utilize some of his early speed to get position, but Paco Lopez would be the right jockey for that job. Should be good enough to find his way into the exacta in this race.
#7 Red Pond: ran a dominant race most recently, and if he repeats that effort, he should win today as well. However, it is tough for these low-level claimers to run two good races in succession, and I think he is only good enough for 3rd today.
#2 Confrontational: I’m not going to try to get fancy in this spot. Pletcher + Velazquez + class drop = winner.
#5 Abatare: the turf experiment failed miserably on January 18th, but a return to dirt and a drop to maiden claiming company should be enough to get this filly into the exacta.
#7 Key d’Oro: trainer Marcus Vitali is having another solid season at Gulfstream Park, and this filly’s race over dirt on January 7th is better than anyone else in the field not named Confrontational or Abatare.
#4 Air Squadron: trainer Jorge Navarro has won at a 32% rate so far this Gulfstream meet, and this horse was well-backed at the windows in his most recent race before losing the jockey at the start. I believe Navarro will have him ready for this race and Air Squadron rebounds to get the win.
#1 Bellamy Storm: will likely gun to the lead from his inside post position, but that early speed may take him a long way in a race where a lot of the horses entered are not too keen on passing others in the late stages of their races.
#3 Megalith: his success at Gulfstream (5 wins) and at the 7 furlong distance (2 wins) make him worth inclusion for third in a race where no one exactly “jumps off the page” at you.
#3 Whisky Ding: has been facing tougher on the turf, and also gets a positive rider switch today to jockey Paco Lopez. I’m hoping Lopez is aggressive and sends this colt towards the front early vs. this less-than-stellar field.
#1 Rocket Star Red: tough to back a trainer who is currently 0-for-59 at this Gulfstream Park meet, but perhaps something went wrong in his most recent race (January 23) and Rocket Star Red is able to run to his two-back and three-back efforts.
#7 Renombre: another colt in this race who has been facing tougher competition on the turf in his most recent races. Maybe the turf-to-dirt angle and drop in class will wake him up today.
#7 Katz My Song: has won back-to-back races against similar competition, and also owns a pretty solid lifetime record (13-3-3-1) at Gulfstream Park. Biggest concern is the stretchout from 6 furlongs to 7 furlongs, as it looks like he may be a little more effective at six furlongs.
#3 Sir Edgar: hasn’t been seen in 2 months, which is a little worrisome for a low-level claimer. That being said, trainer Peter Walder excels when entering horses after similar layoffs, and he also connects at 28% off the claim.
#6 Smoking The Field: with only five wins in 53 lifetime starts, this guy is anything but reliable. However, he has finished in the money in more than half of his races at the tricky 7 furlong distance, which is more than a lot of the horses in this field have going for them.
#6 Jane’s Cat: drops a level after splitting the field vs. $35,000 maiden claimers. Trainer Bernardo Lopez has a solid win percentage (43%) with a limited number of turf sprinters, and perhaps she can show a little more speed after only racing 6 days ago.
#4 Moon Solomoon: lacks early speed altogether, which is not the best tactics to utilize if you want to win turf sprints at Gulfstream (or anywhere, for that matter). However, she was able to finish 3rd vs. $35,000 maiden claimers most recently, and maybe she can improve off that effort.
#9 Pelagia: showed good early speed when racing on dirt most recently. She was claimed that day by a low-profile trainer, who has had some success with a small number of runners in his stable. Her early speed and the addition of Edgard Zayas make her worth a look in this spot.
#8 Trini Boss: may have the benefit of being up close early in a race that appears to lack pace on paper. He was a winner only two races ago, while a few horses in this field are on extended winless streaks. Trainer Daniel Vella has won 40% of his races at the Gulfstream Park championship meet.
#2 Honor The Kitten: Ramsey/Maker/Castellano form a pretty formidable group, and they team up to take on a fairly soft field in this spot. I’m not crazy about this horse being claimed for $35,000, only to disappear for a couple of months, but you still must respect the connections.
#9 Tale of the Heart: in his last twelve races, this guy was only entered for a tag once (a race in which he fell, so it is tough to tell how he would have finished that day). He may need some help from the pacesetters, but with anything approaching on honest pace, Tale of the Heart may be good enough to get up for 3rd.
#9 Roman Approval: has only raced on the turf three times, where he has earned a victory and a 2nd place finish in two of those three grass races. His apparent early speed should be an asset in this spot, and I’m confident jockey John Velazquez will have him placed properly in the early stages of this contest.
#1 Day Six: ran a solid 3rd in his most recent race on January 10th, and that was after working out a trip from post position 12. Today, Day Six gets some post relief, and will be leaving away from cozy post position 1. I look for him to improve upon his most recent race, and be right there as they hit the wire.
#7 Awesome Dawson: a bit of a wild card in this spot, as he is untested and unproven on grass. However, his trainer (Dale Romans) connects with 18% of his horses trying grass for the first time, and he also may be able to work out an advantageous stalking trip in this race.
#6 Little Miss Julia: tough to get a good read on this filly, because in two of her races she was essentially last in the early part of the race, and in one of her races she led the field wire-to-wire. I’m hoping she shows speed again today, and hopefully she jumps up with the addition of Lasix as well.
#7 Wildcat Gaze: lost to Little Miss Julia on December 17th before coming back to break her maiden on January 25th. You can’t go wrong with jockey Javier Castellano, who seemingly has the Midas touch at Gulfstream this winter. It should be noted, however, that the 2nd place finisher in Wildcat Gaze’s most recent race (Silver Fog) ran a non-threatening 5th this past Sunday at Gulfstream.
#1 Competitive Player: defeated a terrible field on January 22nd while breaking her maiden at odds-on. Her early speed and the fact that she was picked up by Peter Walder (28% first off the claim) most recently give her a small shot in this contest.
#3 Deep Consideration: was defeated by a legitimate class-dropper from the Christophe Clement barn most recently, so I respect his most recent race. His turf races on paper are simply better than anyone else’s, and make him a logical winner in this spot.
#4 Super C Me: made a decent run down on the inside of his most recent race, vs. similar $75,000 maiden claiming competition. His tactical early speed could be advantageous in this race, though I am not crazy about putting my money on a jockey who has only 2 wins in 118 races so far at this Gulfstream meet.
#9 C’Mon Boys (GB): took a lot of money at the windows in his maiden special weight debut on January 24th, but did absolutely no running. Jockey Joel Rosario jumps off, but perhaps the class drop and racing experience will lead to a better performance today.
#12 Breakeven Analysis: not sure why the connections are willing to lose this guy for $50,000 today, as it appears he was running well enough to clear his n1x allowance condition sometime soon. That being said, this horse has been running well recently and trainer Chad Brown wins at a 33% clip in claiming races.
#11: Neoclassic: showed a lot of early speed in his most recent race, and I believe Javier Castellano will try to send Neoclassic to the lead again today. Pay attention to An Imaginary Road (#3 in Race 8 at Gulfstream) on Friday, as An Imaginary Road beat Neoclassic most recently. If An Imaginary Road runs well in the eighth race, it may signal that Neoclassic will run well in this spot.
#10 American Strong: can’t go wrong with top turf trainer Christophe Clement, and he American Strong has been running fast enough in recent races to hit the board in this race.
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PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.