Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, July 20, 2015
Today, we’re headed out to Delaware Park, where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from first-time guest handicapper Anthony D’imperio (@bouncingmarkers).
Although this is Anthony’s debut on DanonymousRacing.com, you’ll see that he’s put together a quite thorough picks and analysis sheet (including a Pick-5 play) below. Good luck today! Take it away, Anthony…
.50 Pick 5 ($48)
Race 3) 4
Race 4) 1-2-4
Race 5) 2-6-9-11
Race 6) 1-3-6-7
Race 7) 4-1
#1 Uncle Carm drops down slightly today after a dull effort in a $6250 group 2 weeks ago. He has some tactical speed and should be full of run late with the cutback to 6 furlongs. #5 Fond of Candy is probably the fastest in this group and has improved in all 3 starts since her winter hiatus. Would not be surprised if Chiappe clears the field early and doesn’t look back. #2 Balto More is making longshot betters very happy lately, scoring at odds of 30-1 and 70-1 in two of his last four races. Doug Adams sports a healthy 23% win rate with horses coming off a 45 day layoff and there’s no reason to think this horse can’t take another step forward.
With only 4 races combined over this group of 8 two year olds, it is a real crapshoot. I’m going to give the nod to the outside horse #8 Hot Summer Storm for Jamie Ness and Midwest Thoroughbreds. Ness has a 29% win clip with his firsters this year and this In Excess colt has the pedigree to win early. His workouts have been very consistent, an angle I like to play in these types of races. #2 Man of Blues checked in a disappointing 5th after going off at odds of 4/5 in his debut three weeks ago. #4 Crimson Valor makes his first start today for Tim Ritchey with Victor Carrasco aboard. The workouts aren’t anything to write home about but the Birdstone colt has some noteworthy connections that shouldn’t be slept on.
#4 Freewest looks due for a big effort after consistent drops from OC25K company over the winter and a couple of excusable bad races. This one looks to be the speed of the speed in this 5F turf dash and she will be my single on my pick 5 ticket. #5 Look at Me Dance is also dropping into this $14,000 race from better at Monmouth. The 8 year old looks to have her best days behind her but I think Pat Farro has found a competitive spot for her today. She should be closing fast late. #3 Countess Emma has 1 win in her three starts after 9 months off. Her turf record is respectable and I think apprentice (although he sure doesn’t ride like one) Nik Juarez will have her in a nice spot early.
Best From Here looks to me to be in a nice spot today. She will benefit from a pace duel up front from the #2 Papas Cierva and the #6 Nora’s Music. She picked up a nice 2nd in her Delaware debut a little over a month ago and I think Forest Boyce will have her in the stalking position she wants to be in. Papas Cierva should fly out of the gate and hope that no one goes with her. I don’t think she will be so lucky. Nora’s Music broke her maiden in a $16,000 maiden claimer at Tampa in March but hasn’t really taken any steps forward since then.
This 5f $17,500N3L turf race looks to be the best betting race of the Monday card. Given all the pace in this race, I ended up giving a slight edge to #6 It’s Macaroni over #2 Scat Daddys Breeze. Gaberiel Saez has had this filly in the money 5/6 times he has gotten on her. I think she will show enough speed to keep her close in this short sprint and will save enough to burst through late. Scat Daddys Breeze will make her first start for Rodolfo Romero today, switching over from the barn of 2% trainer Alfonso Miranda. This horse has shown the ability to be competitive either on the lead or coming from the back of the pack and the switch to a higher percentage barn could help her take her game to the next level. I’m not considering this group a real significant class hike from the open $12,500 company she was facing at Gulfstream. #11 Sweet Butterfly will most likely garner a lot of attention at the betting windows as she is cutting her claiming price in half today. She has a fair amount of speed but outside drawn horses in turf sprints like this scare me, even if they are the best horse in the field which I think she is. Jane Cibelli is killer with horses 2nd time off the layoff too. It is worth noting that Trevor McCarthy was listed to ride but will have a couple days off after a nasty spill on Sunday. Keep an eye on who takes the reins in the morning changes.
Another race where there looks to be an incredible amount of early pace leads me to land on the #3 Con Gee. Although 0-8 at Delaware Park, Con Gee does have 3 seconds to her credit and at 8/1 on the ML, looks like a nice price play. #6 Star Blessing also caught my eye coming off a very dull effort in her last try here at DP. She might need the lead because passing horses is not her favorite thing to do. If she makes the lead in easy fashion I would expect her to win this race in dominating fashion. #7 Beautiful Tashy will not make it easy for Star Blessing drawing right to her outside with comparable early speed. This will be the first start for Tashy in the Dennis Griffin barn who is 5-18 at the meet so far.
Hard to not end up on the #4 Six Tonsafun in this spot. She can stalk and pass horses and she has been game in her 5 prior allowance tries before dropping down to this spot. Cintron/Robertson are 33% with each other so far this year. #1 Smarty’s Legend has a couple of throw out races and some sneaky good races sandwiched in between. If Rosado can get her to break cleanly and sharply this one could blow up the tote board. #3 Key to the Highway also flashes speed and is dropping down from allowance company here at DP.
Black Cadillac opens up at an extreme overlay of 8/1. After stumbling at the start in his last try against similar at odds at 3/1, it seems as though this one isn’t getting the respect it deserves. He has experience at the distance and should be up front with Tyler Conner and not too much pressure today. #2 Mushroom King makes his second route start today after a so-so 3rd place finish against similar last time out. His sprint races lead me to believe he wants to go a mile and I think he needed to last race to get his feet wet at the distance. #4 Lataam beat Mushroom King in their last race and has 3 straight 2nd place finishes on fast dirt tracks. Hard to love a horse that will most likely be 8/5 and doesn’t show much value.
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