Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Friday, November 27, 2015
On Friday, we’re headed back out to Del Mar where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from returning guest handicapper Sebastian Piscuskas (@seabass912). Sebastian has written up a lengthy analysis to go along with his picks for every single race on the Del Mar card!
We thank Sebastian for his time and effort. His California picks are posted every Friday on DanonymousRacing.com. We encourage you to give him a follow on Twitter when you get a chance. Take it away, Sebastian…
Race 1: Morning line favorite #5 Turn Your Eyes will take a lot of money in this spot, and it remains to be seen whether or not it is good money. The win jumps off the page, fourteen and a half lengths, and rightfully so. However, the opening fractions he set were virtually glacial going six furlongs and his passing gear is virtually nonexistent. Not to take away from the victory itself, it was smashing, but moving forward he’s one I’ll let beat me. I like #1 Family Code. This gelding is a demon. After blitzing a starter allowance group he stepped up to run a strong third against undefeated Cal bred star Smokey Image. He’s lighting quick from the gate and, unlike Turn Your Eyes, can pass if need be but is lengths fastest in here. He’s the one to catch and beat. #2 Bully Pulpit has not ducked anyone and is rarely embarrassed. Toss his last race and he’s live. 5-1-2-6
Race 2: Horses don’t win ten plus races without being the real deal and that is just what #4 Two Fast to Pass is. At the beginning of the year he looked like a horse going the wrong way but after further analysis he just looks like a horse that wants no part of synthetic. He’s won three of four since being moved off the synthetic at Golden Gate and is currently working a hole in the wind over the main track here. Coming off a well-deserved freshening I expect Too Fast to Pass to fire a big shot. #9 Giant Ego was solid in his first try for the Miyadi barn and drops one level in class looking for a win. He’s a talented gelding who, when right, is always around the wire. I expect him to move forward again today. Rates strongly. #1 Oil is the speed. He has only one way to go and that is straight to the front. He’s drawn the rail so he will need to break well, if he does he is a threat. #10 Back to Bako joins the Hollendorfer barn and that is always a positive. 4-9-1-10
Race 3: #1 Flowinwiththebreez was well meant off the layoff in her last and was given a less than stellar ride, to put it mildly. D’Amato gives go to jock Pereira a leg up for the second start in her form cycle but the secret is out of the bag. This filly is raring to go and the one to beat. #4 Secret Chords was a speed and fade first time off the nearly year layoff last time out. She drops to the bottom for this spot running for Truman for the first time. While that would usually be a negative because she was purchased as a weanling for only 17k the connections are obviously looking more for a win than to lose her. Her lone workout since her last was to maintain fitness. She looks ready to go. #5 Mackenzies Moment gets the services of perennial So Cal king Bejarano for her initial spin off the six month layoff. Working consistently and on the plus side she adds to a deep race. 1-4-5-9
Race 4: I’m not sure what connections are going to do with #11 Dreamologist but Mandella and Blanc can figure out a horse with the best of ‘em. She ran a group of maidens off their feet but then set suicidal fractions in a stake next time out to fade badly. I think she’ll need to figure out how to rate and fast, hence the reason I believe Blanc gets the call, but she’s dangerous on the front end. Dreamologist is regally bred and is incredibly talented, once she figures out how to rate she’ll be an imposing figure. #5 Belle Et Bette was instant dividends for D’Amato before hitting the bench. He claimed her for 40k, jumped her up to 50k, and earned the victory while she was sharp before stopping on her a bit to get her fresh for a winter campaign. She steps up in class for this, and faces older for the first time, but I don’t see why she can’t improve. She may need a race though and that’s my main fear with her. Still, it’s rare to see Lezcano take a mount on this coast so she must be ready. #9 Tiz a Kiss doesn’t have that “killer instinct” but she likes to hit the board. Bejarano/Baltas are arguably the most dangerous combo on the circuit. Watch out for Halljoy at a price. She’s likes muck up paces and find herself in a position to win. She hasn’t won in a year but when the field starts rolling she’ll be around too. 11-5-9-3
Race 5: #7 Flexible Ethics is fast, very fast. She has the ability to take this group all the way or harass another speed who decides to go. Her post draw could not have been better and the cutback is a huge deal. She’s making her fourth start in a month and a half but she’s fit and in form. #4 Ambrella was superb on debut and then hit the pine. She returned with a decent enough fourth place finish at odds of 6-5 and will benefit from the run. Her workouts in the interim have been of the plus variety and she appears to be moving forward. #3 Scatchmeifyoucan is another lightning fast filly but will likely be compromised by Flexible Ethics. She’s faster, but she doesn’t have a lot of stick. Any pressure and she’ll likely fold. 7-4-3-5
Race 6: #6 My Senses surfacing here surprises me and excites me. She was awesome at Keeneland coming up just a little short and has been ultra consistent against some special competition in her career. She has tactical speed and a great passing gear. If she sticks at the morning line that’s a steal. There are no Path’s or Lady Eli’s in here. #1 Augustina de Aragon won at a lower level in her last spot while being the only horse to make up any serious ground in the stretch. She came home in a fast time while wide and showed some real heart. She’s drawn a a good post and Graham sticks with her. Don’t ignore. #4 Illuminant is a deserving favorite and a solid performer. She was a nose short of breaking her maiden in her first try at a route distance. She cut back in a race down the hill and aired by nearly seven lengths. Stretching back out there is enough pace to set up her closing kick, but not enough speed to stop her if she really wants the lead. Her tactical ability is a blessing in a race of this size. #5 Barbara Beatirce should continue to move forward, but first time against open company is always tough. #11 Salsita tends to show up at a price. The post hurts but Maldonado can figure a trip for her from out there. 6-1-4-5
Race 7: #5 She’s a Warrior ran a winning race on debut and shocked many in the stands by hitting the board at 25-1. She was stuck on the rail and had to check coming out of the turn. A lesser horse would have packed it in and it would have been forgiven but this filly got back into the bit and ran to the line only to come up a little more than a neck short. It was a stellar effort and a repeat wins today by open lengths. Eurton generally runs his horses a little short and for this horse to run so well signals huge ability. A potential ticket single. #3 Old Hollywood is working a hole in the wind for her debut. I love the spacing of the works. Big chance. #8 Mama’s Sugar debuts for Miller. Another in here with plus works and capable apprentice David Lopez takes the call. Look for #1 Lunar Empress down the road. She’s stuck on the rail and will need a little help today but moving forward she will be a force around two turns. Patience is key with this well bred runner. 5-3-8-1
Race 8: Brazilian superstar #3 Bal a Bali was highly regarded before his U.S. debut and ran to it. He was flat in his second try and completely unlucky in his third. Now making his fifth start this season he’s rounding into his Brazilian form and is strictly the one to beat in the Seabiscuit. He was superb in the allowance try on the BC Friday card here at Del Mar and has worked like a well-oiled machine for this, the second start in his form cycle. Imposing. #8 Alert Bay is looking to earn his fourth straight win and pass the million dollar mark in earning for his career. He’s been a pleasant surprise in his career, winning on seemingly anything, anywhere, and at any time. He’s a horse I would love to own. He’s beaten a few of these before and finds himself in position to win again. #4 Seek Again is a traveler, having only ever run once at the same venue in consecutive races. He ships to the West Coast for the third time looking to finally find himself in the Winners’ Circle. He’s come within a neck of beating Wise Dan so he has no problem throwing down with classy horses. Like always, he’s dangerous. #5 Avanzare has surprised me in all three of his runs this year. In not one start did I think he had a chance and here he is with to GII wins on the year. Again, I don’t think he has a great chance but he won’t surprise me this time. 3-8-4-5
Race 9: I land on the far outside runner #11 Ten Dollar Note to end the day. She showed speed on debut and finished a well beaten second at huge odds. She won’t be anything close to the price she was two weeks ago but the drop in class will help. Tentative selection. #1 Passionate Emotion is getting better with racing. She closed well at a shorter distance but she’ll need some luck today to repeat that effort, due to the rail draw. While the post hurts she’s the one to fear in the lane. #6 Juju’s Mojo hooked a beast on debut then came back in her next start to finish behind Ten Dollar Note while gaining some ground in the final yards. She’s drawn much better today and another capable apprentice gets aboard her. She rates well today. 11-1-6-7
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