Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Friday, November 20, 2015
On Friday, we’re headed back out to Del Mar where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from returning guest handicapper Sebastian Piscuskas (@seabass912). Sebastian has written up a lengthy analysis to go along with his picks for every single race on the Del Mar card!
We thank Sebastian for his time and effort. His California picks are posted every Friday on DanonymousRacing.com. We encourage you to give him a follow on Twitter when you get a chance. Take it away, Sebastian…
Race 1: 2-4-6-1
The connections seem to have given up on #2 Semper Fortis but he is still a well bred colt and one with a big chance. This half-brother to Carpe Diem has shown ability to this point and the drop should wake him up but the inside draw doesn’t help. Gutierrez will likely send him and try to clear. #4 Five Star Jack was a speed and fade on debut against better in a super live maiden race. He’s drawn the outside of his main front end rivals and should find himself in a good position. Pedroza/Kitchingman strike at an almost 20% clip together in the last 2 seasons. Regardless of win % this tandem has been sneaky good on this circuit for the last 5 years, often jumping up at odds. ‘Jack is a deserving favorite. #6 Weirdhaircut Seth would get the award for best name. He’s worked consistently for his debut and has recorded some solid works over the course in the morning.
Race 2: 3-4-2-7
Pedroza/Kitchingman have their second morning line favorite of the day in #3 Bandido Too and this gelding too has a great shot. While winless in three starts since being claimed off of Yakteen he has been racing against much tougher and finds himself in the lowest level of his career. In his return to sprinting, where he has recorded both victories, Bandido Too catches a paceless field and will be the one to run down at the top of the lane. He could be a single. #2 Justonemorething enters vying for 3 straight. He’s been off since September and while in good form before his layoff he’s had just 3 works, with none coming past 4 furlongs. I expect him to be a bit short today. #4 Classic Gent is the favorite’s main danger. 2 starts ago he won against older open company for 32k and then ran well as the favorite in his last start. He’s a tough customer.
Race 3: 5-3-7-2
#5 Lovenseek has been the most consistent runner this year hitting the board 5 times, including all 5 tries on turf. He’s been a new animal since being moved to the grass and, like his last 3 starts, will break from the gate at a short price. Lovenseek holds a pace advantage over this field but can sit off the pace and earn a victory. The one to deny. #3 Rockin Robin seems to do his best running when fit. Today’s start is his 3rd in a month off of a brief freshening and around this time is when he starts to find his best stride. While not the most consistent Rockin Robin is very capable when on his game and I expect apprentice David Lopez to have a lot of horse around the far turn. #7 I’ll Play My Hand improved dramatically after the stretch out to 2 turns. He stretches back out today and finds himself on grass. He’s worth a look at 8-1.
Race 4: 3-4-5-6
Spawr looks to have struck pay dirt with his claim of #3 A Colt Following for 16k. In his last race this 3 year old gelded son of Montbrook pulled away from over matched company while dropping in class. Off the claim Spawr moves him up to 25k and retains Perez who clearly knows this guy well. He’s the most versatile horse in the field and most accomplished going 2 turns, save for other Spawr entrant #4 Tiz Jolie. Between A Colt Following and Tiz Jolie Bill Spawr holds the keys to this 4th race. I expect him to be in the Winners’ Circle one way or another. #6 Ladies Man is cross entered for the 19th but if he does stay in this spot it will be interesting to see how he handles 2 turns. Pedigree says it can go either way. #5 Ain’t Misbehavin is live due to first time in the D’Amato barn.
Race 5: 6-3-5-4
#6 Fishel finally broke through with a solid win last time out at the Maiden Special Weight level. What detracts from his effort, however, is he beat career maiden Dylan Ward, who was long gone and quit in the final 1/8th. While the Beyer came back strong there is cause for concern with whether or not this guy is good enough. He is improving and Bejarano stays aboard. 2 good signs that lead to him being a lukewarm choice. #3 Madikwe was well meant returning to maiden company and ran like it. Now back at the starter 40,000 level he will need to improve to catch up to Fishel, but he looks to be more than capable. His barn is ice cold but due to get rolling. At a square price Madikwe is worth a long look. #5 Dynamite Ride joins the Miller barn after a long campaign where he is winless but has hit the board 7 of 11 times. First off the claim for Miller is always a good angle and this guy likes to fight in the lane.
Race 6: 4-5-1-8
This is the toughest race on the card by far as this race is wide open. #1 Frac Candy runs first off the claim for Miller after smashing maiden 30k foes in his last start. He drew the rail today which won’t help him as he appears to be a horse that needs to be on the outside by himself. #4 Derby Chatter was well meant on debut and earned the victory from the rail. It seems the connections like their gelding as they choose not to risk him again for the claiming tag. #5 Freedom Hill broke his maiden on debut in fine fashion and then followed that up with a poor effort on the turf in a stake. He returns to his preferred surface and looks to make amends. #8 Suavemente returned to racing off of a 4 month layoff in good order and looks to improve again today. His draw is a plus but he will need to gain separation on #10 Gunslinger Rules to his outside in order to be effective today. The possibilities in this race are endless.
Race 7: 9-3-5-7
#9 No Comparison is my top pick. After blowing up the tote board in her first try of the year she proved it was no fluke by running 2nd to budding star Glory in her next try running down the hill. As the heavy favorite last out she found herself in some traffic was unable to get the job done. Today she draws the far outside and has enough speed to contest the lead if she wants to or get a trip similar to her maiden score in first start of the year. #3 Nite Delite came up just a nose short of breaking through this condition in her last start at big odds from a wide post. Drawn in Gate 3 today I expect Nite Delite to jump out to the lead and try to take the field all the way again, which she has shown she is capable of doing. #5 Sharaun broke her maiden on debut at Golden Gate and was immediately sent to Hollendorfer to continue her career. I view this as a positive and a sign that ownership is pretty high on this filly.
Race 8: 6-2-4-12
#6 Casino Fever is a sentimental play. We lost her brother, Gimme Da Lute, recently and now we have her to take up the mantle. She’s working incredibly well for her debut and has drawn a good post. She’s got some shoes to fill but from the work she’s done in the morning I think she could be a star in her own right. #2 Hurricaine Callie is a great horse to own. While she doesn’t win she almost always cashes a check and she’s a hard trier. She will need to step up her game to compete our top choice but she’s shown some ability and a lot of heart. #4 Papa’s Maggie’s last work jumps off the page but Jones is not known for having his horses ready to win first out. Watch her down the line. #12 Allsquare is another to keep an eye on. Any time D’Amato debuts a runner notice needs to be taken. She’s been a tough one to gauge in the morning but, as with everything D’Amato sends out, at least we know she’s ready to go.
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