Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Friday, November 18, 2016
It’s a Friday afternoon of racing at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club, and we’ve got Sebastian Piscuskas (@SeaBass912) providing FREE picks & analysis!
Sebastian has been one of our featured West Coast handicappers for some time now. You can find his picks for Southern California racing every Friday on Danonymous Racing. We thank Sebastian for sharing his thoughts today. We encourage you to give him a follow on Twitter when you get a chance. Take it away, Sebastian…
Race 1: #2 Yavrig had no chance in her last race when she was taken out to the ten path down the backstretch by a rank foe. She’s never missed the board since joining the Knapp barn and will likely go off favored again. She runs credible races she just doesn’t win. There isn’t much else in here and she’s arguably been her best routing. #4 Chuchotti merits an outside look. She’s too well bred to truly be as bad as she’s shown and she finally gets placed at a level where she can compete. This will be her first try on dirt and, by a Belmont winner out of a Belmont winner, she should love two turns on dirt. I’ll make her my longshot top pick to start the card.
Race 2: #3 Frandontjudge has regained her form since being returned to two turns on dirt. Her last start was a huge confidence builder for her as all jockey Brayan Pena had to do was point her in the right direction. She appears to be feeling good and that’s almost all that matters with mares at this level. #7 Sidepocket Run has earned black type for breeding purposes so seeing her run for 8k is disheartening. With that said she’s obviously much better than these when she’s on her game but may have been sapped by her career best number in June. While she’s clearly in poor form she does get anywhere from five-nine pounds from her rivals and she does have a good gate draw.
Race 3: #4 Shehastheritestuff was downright awful in her last start. She sat a perfect trip and had nothing to offer when the racing began. The race itself has come back weak but she hasn’t. The Unusual Heat filly hasn’t missed a beat in the morning and has been stationed at Del Mar long enough to have a work over the surface. Van Dyke has the magic touch on grass. You have to be willing to forgive that last effort and I am. The rest of this field isn’t much so I’m going to take a flier with #6 My Aunt Tillie. She’s shown little to date but did perk up a bit over the grass in her last start. Very inspiring worktab in the interim. Saavedra is a sneaky conditioner who jumps up when we aren’t paying close attention. At 6-1 his filly #7 Nighty Night is flying under the radar. She jumps right up into protected company after a very positive effort sprinting on dirt and moves to the grass. We are paying attention.
Race 4: Just when I thought #6 Nextdoorneighbor had nothing left to offer Miller claims him and gets him to the Winners’ Circle twice. Now Knapp has him off the claim and he’s no slouch with that move either striking at a gaudy 37%. The 9yo gelding has eight wins in the last two seasons. He’s still ticking. #8 Success Rate earned a hard-fought victory in his last and merits respect. Glatt has this 6yo going well and he’s drawn an outside gate. #2 Madelyn’s Wild Max got into several lengths of trouble in his last race. With that said his form still isn’t very good. Craig Lewis is a good horseman. Backers have to hope he’s figured him out.
Race 5: #9 Squared Squared has drilled at San Luis Rey like he’s ready to pop at first asking. Miller is steady with his first-time starters and has been winning with everything he’s been shipping in from SLR. Desormeaux takes the call. #2 Eldaafirst has drilled farther than what this race is scheduled for. His last move over the surface was just for maintenance as the main body of his work was done weeks ago. Koriner overachieves with his 2yo’s. #4 Marchtothemusic ran a credible third on debut before being spotted over his head in a stake next time out. He drops in for the 62.5k tag but that doesn’t alarm me as he was purchased for just 9k as a weanling. Huge jock upgrade is in his favor.
Race 6: #4 Jimmy Bouncer ran second to a next out stakes winner in his first start of the year after a last place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last season. The gelded son of Square Eddie then rebounded to crush Calbred foes up North a month later and returns to Del Mar with confidence. The O’Neill trainee is the class of the field and is offered up for a tag solely because he has already broken through this condition. #8 Stormy Rocit is seeking his first win since May 2015 at Pimlico Race Course. The gelded son of Stormy Atlantic squandered a nearly insurmountable lead in his last start at Woodbine and moves to the Miller barn for a Winter campaign. This guy is a four-time winner at the distance. #1 Horse Greedy closed to win on what seemed like a dead rail at Los Al back in September. He’s been gelded since his last start and returns to turf. The gelding should have the Koriner trainee on edge.
Race 7: #4 Princess Karen was bet off the board in her debut and she cruised around the oval while never under pressure. The time came back painfully slow but the surface at Santa Anita that week was the deepest I have ever seen in my time following So Cal racing. Bonde has a potential star on his hands.
Race 8: #4 Six Point Rack is out of Tamarack Bay, a GSP mare, who has dropped six other foals who all have earned over 100k in their careers and have done quite a bit of their damage on the grass. The Puype trainee tried dirt in his first two starts and was highly unsuccessful. He should show more today. #7 Marckie’s Water gets on grass immediately after showing zero on dirt in his debut. He’s out of Russian River, a four-time winner, who broke her maiden in her first try on grass whose other runner, Sea Smoke, coincidentally broke her maiden in her first try on grass, and all three runners are/were owned by Little Red Feather Racing. Baltas is 22% moving his runners from dirt to turf and is 20% with his first-time turf runners. Regardless of the kooky family parallels the trainer angles themselves are enough to put Marckie in the mix. #5 Jet Ski held on best of the early speed in his first try around two turns. He jumps on the grass for the initial time and “Money” Mike Smith takes the call.
Late Pick 4: 9,2,4/4,1,8/4/4,7,5,14
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