Who Do Ya Like?
Breeders’ Crown Picks & Analysis
Saturday, November 22, 2014
We’re thrilled to have our friend Keith Rosintoski (@LEGENDBETS) back with us tonight for Day 2 of Breeders’ Crown 2014!
MEADOWLANDS BREEDERS CROWN LEGEND BETS CARD
Legend Bets Grading Scale
A- Given when a race has a weak favorite or no true favorite combined with a slew of other horses that have as good of chance. Race must have a complete field of at least 9 or 10 horses to ensure value. The favorite should be a vulnerable horse that doesn’t have a good chance of winning the race at any odds let alone short odds. The more vulnerable the favorite, the better the betting race it is. An A grade is often going to be a Legend Bet Race. These races while rare offer great betting opportunities to the bettor.
B- Given when a race has more than 2 horses that can win the race and multiple horses that could round out the exotics like trifectas and superfectas. These races generally have two even priced horses that vow for favoritism that isn’t odds on and then some longshots that also have a chance to fill out the tickets.
C- Given when a race has a strong favorite with no more than 1 or 2 other horses that pose considerable threats to that favorite. These races are important to search for value underneath in exotics rather than trying to beat the favorites for the win. The C Grade can also be given when I have no strong opinions on the race even though it may pay well.
D- A heavy favorite that looks very tough on paper, and nobody poses a real serious threat to win the race. Shorter fields could also produce a lower grade race because generally there becomes a heavy favorite with not much value in exotics.
TOUGH RACES THAT DON’T HAVE ANY CLEAR CUT CHOICES COULD ALSO BE GIVEN A LOW GRADE ON THE LEGEND BETS GRADING SCALE. EVEN THOUGH THE RACE MAY END UP PAYING A LOT IN THE END, HAVING A GOOD FEEL FOR THE RACE AND A STRONG OPINION IS THE KEY TO BEING SUCCESSFUL AND SOME RACES ARE JUST TOO TOUGH TO COME UP WITH A WINNER SO THEY ARE SIMPLY GIVEN LOWER GRADES OR VIEWED AS SPREAD RACES IN PICK 4 OR PICK 5 SEQUENCES. YOU WILL RARELY BUT ON OCCASION SEE A HIGH GRADE WITH NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS BUT MORE OFTEN YOU WILL SEE GRADES OF C & D GIVE NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS OR AT LEAST LESS OF THEM.
.50 CENT PICK 5 RACES 1-5 ($60)
.50 CENT EARLY PICK 4 RACES 4-7 ($30)
.50 CENT LATE PICK 4 RACES 8-11 ($30)
RACE 1 GRADE C
My Top Choice is 8 IAM BONASERA
6 TEXICAN N has been facing tougher out of town and comes to the big track tonight and finds a spot that should suit him quite well. The 6YO has come here just once and he was the beaten favorite with Eric Goodell and never threatened at a similar level to this. Tonight he gets Ron Pierce and should be more of a factor and while I wouldn’t want him if he’s favored in the 4 or 5-1 range he’s a solid wager. 5 BAD BOY MATT is a tricky horse to figure out as he just doesn’t try every night. Gingras was very aggressive with him last week but he still let go off the bit when he made the lead and relaxed. He’s a guess every time he races and you can’t leave him off but I can’t recommend him at short odds either. Gingras and Burke already have had a good weekend here though and this one would only add to it if he wins, don’t leave off. 1 K-LEES SHAKENBAKE can outkick them home probably and if he turns in one of those 25 second final quarters he did last time he was here he’ll be awful tough. He draws well enough but this could be a bit too tough for him too. I think he’s got a long shot’s chance and should be played as such for the new barn. 4 WORD POWER missed some time from sickness and came back last week and appeared to be himself. He kicked home nicely in that effort and a similar performance tonight makes him a contender for Larry Remmen and Brett Miller. 8 IAM BONASERA ships back from Balmoral and has been facing tougher horses than these. He’s not going to hold up in the 6-1 range and I think will be favored by post time and deserves to be favored by post time. Selections for this race are 8-4-6-5.
RACE 2 GRADE C
My Top Choice is 3 WAKE UP PETER
WIN WAGER ON 3 WAKE UP PETER AT 3-1 OR HIGHER
2 IRA CHIEF was very good last time out and that was just the second start since Burke took over. Kakaley gets the nod in here and while this is probably tougher tonight nobody spots horses like Burke does and this one is likely no different. 4 HILLBILLY HANOVER is the other Burke entry and Gingras will be in the bike. He’s just 3 for 24 on the year so even though he likes the Meadowlands a bit you need to get a price. 7 AL’S HAMMERED is going to be favored in here and he and 8 BEACH MEMORIES raced well last week and finished about the same. Take your pick as the 7 AL’S HAMMERED is 2nd time in the new barn and the one I prefer which is 8 BEACH MEMORIES was in very tight in the stretch. Both have major shots but keep in mind they flew up front last week and they may not be going as fast early on tonight and that could hurt the closers like 7 AL’S HAMMERED. 3 WAKE UP PETER was flat last week but he’s better than that effort and I think he’s the class of this field and I’ll hope he shows it tonight. He tends to throw in some clunkers from time to time but tonight he’ll wake up and score for us all. Selections for this race are 3-8-7.
RACE 3 GRADE A***LEGEND BET RACE***
My Top Choice is 9 DEWEYCOLORINTHELINE
WIN WAGER ON 9 DEWEYCOLORINTHELINE
3 MASTER OF LAW wasn’t very good last week but that was against tougher. I think he can win but he’ll offer no value and he’s 1 for 5 over this track with just 2 in the money finishes. 8 NF HAPPISTANCE is going to be a price and I think he’s got a shot but I don’t really trust Jeff Gregory who rarely drives here. He’s hit the ticket in 10 of his last 11 and he’s 6 for 7 in the money over this track and that means you can’t leave him off but perhaps is best used underneath. 9 DEWEYCOLORINTHELINE was given an odd drive last week to be kind as from post 2 he found himself 9th at 3 quarters. Pinned to the pylons by Schnittiker he was given no shot and I had hoped for a different driver this week and who better than to get Mr. Longshot himself, Andrew McCarthy. He’ll make sure he’s in contention when they turn and I’m not sure this group can outkick him home and at huge odds tonight I have to come right back to him as he was full of trot late last week and won’t have to win to create value. 10 TIRADE HANOVER is probably the horse to beat but he draws poorly and that levels the playing field. It wouldn’t shock me to see him win but you need a price from post 10. Selections for this race are 9-8-3-10.
RACE 4 GRADE B***BEST BET OF THE NIGHT***
My Top Choice is ***6 MUSCLE DIAMOND***
5 PINKMAN has been exceptional after getting a late start and perhaps he’s just fresher than his competition but nonetheless he’s a major player in here tonight. He got the perfect set up last week though and I’m not convinced that the others tried that hard to win the race and that allowed him to win but I think he’s a solid favorite and can certainly win. From that elimination I thought 10 THE BANK raced well but draws too poorly tonight to recommend but he’s got enough late kick to maybe hit the ticket. 3 HABITAT was given the I can finish 4th drive by Sears and I think as the main pace early on he’s extremely dangerous tonight. Don’t fault Sears for knowing that he didn’t have to win last week and hope for 9-2 odds as that would be a gift. 7 GUESS WHO’S BACK missed nearly a month and was pointed towards this race and I thought was given a similar drive last week knowing that he didn’t have to win. Brennan didn’t get after him at all with first time trotting hopples and I thought he looked really well and relaxed. Perhaps he’s not good enough but if we get 6-1 again tonight or more I think he’s more than playable. 1 FRENCH LAUNDRY won the other elimination and did so nicely under not much urging at all from Brett Miller. He did get a fairly easy trip though and that seemed to be the weaker of the two eliminations. I do think he’s got a shot tonight though and with the right trip he can win. 6 MUSCLE DIAMOND was pretty good last week and I think has plenty more left in the tank. He keeps his head down and finishes really well and while the paces were slow last week I think they could mix it up a bit tonight and that could only help this one’s chances. Selections for this race are 6-3-7-1.
RACE 5 GRADE C
My Top Choice is 4 HEART MAJOR
3 JK SHE’SALADY is every bit the horse to beat in here and is 11 for 11 on the year with 3 wins over this track. I think she’s the most likely winner and anybody that doesn’t think that just isn’t telling the truth. That being said, she’ll be 1-5 in here probably and her racing style from off the pace always makes her vulnerable. Perhaps that just states how good she’s been and while I won’t leave her off the Pick 4, I don’t think she is unbeatable. 4 HEART MAJOR won last week after a DQ o the real winner and is the speed in here once again tonight. I’m sure Ron Pierce will give her every shot in the world tonight by putting her on the front end. The track last week wasn’t biased, did seem to favor horses from off the pace and looked tiring to front runners. I think we can expect this one to go as far as she can tonight and I do think she can take the wire to wire if the cover flow doesn’t get to her before 3 quarters. My only concern is if Gingras leaves to challenge with 9 SASSA HANOVER but even if that happens Pierce should be able to sit the pocket or work the give and go and take back over which Gingras wouldn’t mind either as he has the tougher post. I think 2 DIVINE CAROLINE ends up first over and while most think she’ll just set it up for the favorite before leveling off in the stretch I think she’s a major player tonight as she should get the jump on the chalk and make her go around her. I think she’s way better than the last effort and she’s not going to be safely handled tonight for all the money like she was last week. Selections for this race are 4-2-3-9.
RACE 6 GRADE B
My Top Choice is 4 THINKING OUT LOUD
WIN WAGER ON 4 THINKING OUT LOUD
1 BETTOR’S EDGE is a typical Ron Burke over achiever and I’m sure he’ll sit the cones for Kakaley tonight and hopefully find a way through late. He’ll be more than 7-2 and he’s got to be used in this spot tonight underneath in exotics. 2 MODERN LEGEND is good enough to win and the layoff shouldn’t bother him as he seems to race better off the layoff. You need to get a price as he’s 0 for 11 over this track remarkably but stranger things have happened and if they mix it up he could be right there. 3 STATE TREASURER was okay last week in what I considered to be a “blowout” race and I’d be surprised to see him that forwardly placed tonight early on. I think he’ll find a good spot early and do his best pacing late in the mile and he like the rest of these is a player. 4 THINKING OUT LOUD went 1:48:3 all on his own last week and I think he’s got plenty left in the tank for Campbell tonight. If they mix it up at all early on I think he picks them all off late in deep stretch and he’s my pick for this year’s open pace and the price should be fair. 5 FOILED AGAIN just continues to show why he’s the richest pacer of all time and I certainly won’t be surprised to see him do it again. This classy grinder continues to race hard despite his age and if he does it again tonight he’ll arguably go down as the best harness horse in the history of the sport. 6 CLEAR VISION is the only one in here that I give no shot to at all but they couldn’t go to the gate with 6 so they had to get somebody else in the race. Why they make him 5-2 in the ML is beyond me but he’s 0 for 8 over this track and never even threatened to find the winner’s circle and this half mile horse should pay $52 if he wins tonight. I just put him in the winner’s circle probably with the last couple sentences but if he wins, places, or shows tonight, I will lose. 7 SWEET LOU draws the worst of it but if he’s himself he’s going to be very tough and with the year he’s had I wouldn’t put it past him. Whatever was wrong with him for the last 4 starts simply doesn’t matter as Ron Burke will have him ready to go tonight and if he shows up he’s the horse they will all have to beat. The 7 horse field should make for an ultra-competitive race tonight and while we may not see a 1:47 I think we could have a bunch of them right on the wire in the most exciting race of the weekend. Selections for this race are 4-3-5-7.
RACE 7 GRADE C
My Top Choice is 3 LYONS LEVI LEWIS
WIN WAGER ON 3 LYONS LEVI LEWIS
10 IN THE ARSENAL and Brian Sears chose not to go for the elimination win last week by taking it easy in the stretch run and perhaps that was partly because they didn’t want to overuse him from post 10. His reward for not winning that race? Post 10. But they go for all the money tonight and they won’t be saving him for next week and if he can get any sort of trip at all that doesn’t see him parked out he’s the horse to beat. He won’t be 4-1 so he doesn’t offer much value but he can win. 2 TRACEUR HANOVER to the dismay of many will be racing tonight for Corey Johnson who was given a positive test earlier in the week but you have to wager on the horses that are entered. He loved the big stretch last week and got a very good drive first over and got up at big odds. I don’t think he’s as good as that effort looks and 7-2 would be a crazy low price on him, but he’s a player. 3 LYONS LEVI LEWIS is the other from that qualifier and he did race pretty well after getting a good trip behind 10 IN THE ARSENAL. He’ll be finishing if he gets some pace to chase in here today. The other elimination was the weaker group in my opinion and 5 GO DADDY GO doesn’t deserve 5-2 favoritism but I think the public will get it right. If you get 6 or 8-1 range and want to take a shot then that would be fair but I think the top 3 from the other elimination look like the main players in here tonight. Selections for this race are 3-10-2-5.
RACE 8 GRADE B
NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
3 VOELZ HANOVER is another of Corey Johnson’s runners that arguably shouldn’t be allowed to race, but she’s got a shot since she’s allowed. She stole soft fractions last week as the lone speed and they were no match for her once they hit 3 quarters. Somebody will challenge her tonight and I think she’s good enough but I think I’ll go elsewhere tonight. 8 ANNDROVETTE may be the post time favorite tonight and probably doesn’t deserve that honor. I think she is very vulnerable tonight as she’s got just 1 win over this track from 14 starts. She’s much more likely to hit the ticket than win and short odds can’t be recommended. 9 ROCKLAMATION doesn’t draw poorly for her racing style and I’m sure she’ll get more early speed to chase down this week than she did last week. The faster they go, the better her chances are and she should still be a fair price from post 9. 4 SOMEWHEROVRARAINBOW took last week off and while 5-1 is no bargain I think she sits close enough to get the jump on the deep closers and she isn’t without a shot. 5 YAGONNAKISSMEORNOT is in good form but she has never been over this track and maybe she’ll like it but I can’t take a short price in a race like this that is just wide open. 2 CHARISMA HANOVER is probably giving up some class but her form right now is good enough to use under in exotics. Selections for this race are 4-5-3-9.
RACE 9 GRADE D
NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
6 FATHER PATRICK is going to be the post time favorite in here and I think Takter will have him ready for a big effort tonight. He’s lost his last two and the last time he was here he jumped it off in the Hambletonian at the start. I think he’s the horse to beat but obviously he’s not a horse you can wager on at short odds. 3 NUNCIO hasn’t been worse than 2nd in 16 starts but has been very fortunate with the injury to Trixton and the issues with Father Patrick to run better than his ability a few times this year. Don’t get me wrong he’s a nice horse and very consistent but the Horse of the Year talk is non-sense and I think he’ll get beat tonight to show everybody that believes he’s the horse the year that he really doesn’t. Assuming these two stay trotting the rest of this group is in trouble tonight as they should make up the $6 exacta and hopefully give us a good show. Selections for this race are 6-3.
RACE 10 GRAD B
My Top Choice is 3 MCWICKED
WIN WAGER ON 3 MCWICKED
Exacta Box 35
4 ALWAYS B MIKKI was able to move to the front in a soft opening half mile and I think we won’t be seeing that middle move this week for all the money. I suppose he can win but I’m not in love with his chances and I hate his price as this field is too good to just roll over and let the chalk win. From that elimination 6 JKENDOFANERA was 2nd best and we know that he’s always going to show up. I don’t think he wins but his early speed probably makes him a player as long as he doesn’t get parked out. I don’t like how he finishes miles off though and I prefer others. 1 LET’S DRINK ON IT should get plenty of pace to chase and always seems to throw in a nice final quarter to hit the ticket. It’ll take his best effort ever probably to win but he’s a big price and should be used. 5 LIMELIGHT BEACH (SCRATCHED) exits the other elimination as the winner and in my opinion is the horse to beat with Gingras in the bike and I think vies for favoritism in here tonight. He’s got the perfect post to leave from and I expect him to go down the road and play catch me if you can tonight, and they may not be able to. 3 MCWICKED raced very well uncovered first up for his first race over the track and Sears didn’t really get after him at all or keep him going knowing he didn’t need to. I think he’s got a big shot tonight for all the money and while I know better than to think we’ll get 6-1 the 3-1 we should get is fair enough. All he has to do is be in contention when they turn and I think he can outkick them home if he can catch the 5. 7 DOO WOP HANOVER had no racing room last week and I thought raced extremely well considering. At big odds I’ll tack him on the exotic tickets and hope he helps inflate those prices. Selections for this race are 3-4-6-7.
RACE 11 GRADE B***LEGEND BET RACE***
My Top Choice is 1 YOUR SO VAIN
1 YOUR SO VAIN was outstanding off the long layoff and I think he’s got a major shot to pull the mild upset tonight. 8-1 is probably a dream but at 9-2 range you shouldn’t be shy as Ake appears to have this one ready for his best effort yet which was evident from the race last week off the long layoff. Don’t leave him off your tickets tonight, you’ll be disappointed. 2 MARKET SHARE is one the wild cards and I don’t like his chances to win so I’ll just use him underneath. He always seems to have excuses when he loses and that leads to over bet horses and at short odds in this field I can’t recommend. 3 ARCH MADNESS is one of just 3 other horses from the race last week won by 4 MAVEN that I’m interested in using at all tonight. I think his speed is dangerous and last week’s effort was a rough trip and that race should be tossed. I think he takes them as far as he can this week and he’s got a shot at what should be double digit odds. 4 MAVEN had no trouble first up from post 10 last week and she’s got a legitimate shot to upset the boys tonight. Gingras seems to love her chances and we know one thing, she will certainly show up and if you get 4-1 that’s more than fair. 5 FLANAGAN MEMORY will get lost in the wagering and could be huge odds and should be used in exotic wagers. Probably needs a lot of luck in front of him to win but the faster they go the better. 6 ARCHANGEL is not out of the realm of possibilities in this wide open affair but he never seems to win. If he creeps to double digits or higher though I wouldn’t argue with anybody who wants to take a shot as the race should set up nicely for closers. 9 COMMANDER CROWE is the wild card but it’s really tough to swallow short prices on wild card horses. I don’t think he’s as good as the “experts” do but then again he’s here and going to run and might even be favored so he’s probably got a shot. His work is cut out for him from post 9 and he’ll have to earn it if he gets the money tonight. He’s back on Lasix and all of Sweden will be rooting this 11 year old home, but I just can’t see it happening and I’ll lose if he wins. Selections for this race are 1-4-3-9.
RACE 12 GRADE A***LEGEND BET RACE**
My Top Choice is 8 DREAMLANDS ART
WIN WAGER ON 8 DREAMLANDS ART
8 DREAMLANDS ART won so easily last week and while he jumps in class I think he could be a good enough price to try again on top. I think this field isn’t in the best form but this one is and that’s enough of a reason to take him at decent odds. 1 BLATANTLY BEST had no excuse in the race last week but he may have needed that race and I do think he’s better than that field he faced. He’s 2nd time Lasix off the 6 month layoff and if he shows up tonight he’s a major player. 2 MY TEMUDJIN fits this class well and should be a big price. I think he could get lost in the wagering but has had some success here before and just needs to work out a trip for Corey Callahan tonight. 9 ETHAN HANOVER draws poorly but does like the Meadowlands a bit. 3-1 is crazy though as he’s beaten lesser than this here before. He comes off the layoff and Blackler is 0 for 14 off the layoff this year and that’s not short price worthy. 4 OK COMMANDER is 2nd time Lasix tonight and I thought he would need the last start but that wasn’t the case. At this level he’s always dangerous and he must be used. Selections for this race are 8-1-2-4.
RACE 13 GRADE C
NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS
4 URGENT ACTION is the horse to beat in the nightcap and he’s going to be a fairly short price. He hasn’t won in some time but he has kept good company and this may just be soft enough group to wake him up. 9 DADDY MAC draws poorly which should help the price but a repeat of last week’s effort should make this one pretty tough in here. I think he goes to the front and hopes he’s just good enough to outclass them tonight rather than take back and try to circle them all because of the post. 8 AGOOD TIME TO ROCK is going to try the big track at the Meadowlands for Burke and Gingras and I don’t think you can leave them off. I wouldn’t want too short but he consistently finishes well so even though this is tougher he’s got a shot if he takes to the track. 3 BUBBIE BOY goes out 3rd off the trainer change and gets a top pilot for the 1st time since that claim. I’m weary of the form but maybe Campbell can wake him up. 6 GAMBLER’S TALE drops in class and should be able to make some noise in here because of that. He likes the Meadowlands and this is the softest group he’s found in some time. Selections for this race are 4-9-6-8.
Thanks for playing everyone and hope everyone cashes some tickets tonight. Follow me on Twitter @LegendBets for live information before the races go off and never hesitate to ask a horse racing question. And don’t forget to thank this Dan guy for allowing me to post!! Best of Luck to all.