FREE Belmont Stakes Day Picks and Analysis — Saturday, June 6, 2015

FREE Picks & Analysis

Belmont Park

Saturday, June 6, 2015

The day has finally arrived. If you’re a racing fan, you’re definitely feeling mixed emotions – simultaneously excited to see whether American Pharoah has what it takes to take down the Triple Crown, while also reserved in the knowledge that history has so rarely allowed for the feat. There’s also a sense of sadness in knowing that the curtain is about to drop on another wonderful Triple Crown season. Before you know it, the stars of this three-year-old division will be racing in the Haskell, Travers and ultimately the Breeders’ Cup.

Anyhow, enough of the sappiness. Enjoy Belmont Stakes Day! I hope I’m wrong about American Pharoah – picked against him (truth be told: I’m going for a reverse jinx here). Good luck if you’re playing along today, as we’ve provided FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS for the most of this incredible card at Belmont Park.

BEST BET

Race 8: #8 Ball Dancing (3-1)

LONG SHOT

Race 10: #6 Legendary (30-1)

 

INDIVIDUAL RACE SELECTIONS

Race 1: 1-4-3

Race 2: 2-5-6

Race 3: 3-1-6

Race 4: 6-8-13-4-11

Race 5: 4-5-3

Projecting #5 Princess Violet will be loose on the lead here. She was just off the pace last out in the Ruffian, sitting behind half of the Godolphin entry, before making a move for the lead and ultimately getting past by the other half of the entry (#2 Wedding Toast). When loose on the lead, she wired an a-other-than field at Belmont last year, and then returned to finish second in the Mother Goose behind our top selection #4 Untapable. I actually anticipate this race shaping up in a very similar manner. Untapable should by lying in a prime stalking spot and roll by late. Still think she’s the queen of the older female division, despite that disappointing loss in the Azeri two-back. She should make this looks pretty easy.

Race 6: 8-1-10-3

Had one of my most profitable days in 2014 thanks to #8 V.E. Day and I’ll hope that he can deliver again in the Brooklyn. Don’t think there’s any question that 1 1/2 miles is within his range. As always, the question is whether he can run into a little bit of a pace setup and a clean trip. He’s classy and Castellano is back aboard after leading this one to his Travers score last summer.

Race 7: 11-6-9-8-10

Race 8: 8-6-10-4

#8 Ball Dancing simply doesn’t run a bad race. She picked up a grade 2 win in her only start over the course and comes out of a sharp grade 1 score, in which she beat our second choice #6 Filimibi. That wild spirited filly looked like she was pulling it all together before flopping in several graded stakes tries dating back to last summer. Think this is her optimal distance though and she’s run huge off the layoff before. Major upset potential here. #10 Photo Call rallied into an extremely slow pace set by Discreet Marq in the Beaugay last out. Gotta believe Tepin and potentially one or two others will keep Discreet Marq a bit more honest and, in turn, set the race up for one off the pace – like Photo Call. #4 Coffee Clique won this race last year and is 8 for 8 ITM at the distance. Figures to be sitting just off of an honest pace most of the way around. Note that Johnny V opts for this one over Discreet Marq.

Race 9: 4-8-9-1

Race 10: 6-2-5-7

This is probably the last time I’ll go down this well but I truly believe #6 Legendary is a top tier horse – this is probably one of his last chances to prove it. All of the circumstances are right. This is a horse who is 3 for 3 over the lawn at Belmont, where he most recently won the Grade-3 Knickerbocker. The question is, does he belong class-wise? He hasn’t posted strong placings in either of his 2015 starts (Makers 46 Mile-G1 and The Dixie-G2) but he did have some trip trouble in a very large field last out. Think this mile and a quarter will suit, as well, and have to believe he’s ready to fire third off the bench. You’re going to get a really nice price too. #2 Twilight Eclipse will likely be the favorite here and deservedly so. After running into stiff competition all of last year – having finished second or third behind Main Sequence five times – he finally broke through in the Man O War-G1 last out. He’s as honest as they come and you just can’t leave him off of your tickets, and the same goes for #5  Big Blue Kitten. Game seven-year-old has three wins and another placing from five starts over the track. Brown scores about 25% second off the layoff and this one can certainly show up with a huge effort. Another interesting horse, and a price play, would be #7 Slumber. Has been begging for more distance and he gets it here. If he can get a little pace up front and work out a clean trip, he’ll be prominent late.

Race 11: 6-5-8

Like I said at the top, I hope I’m wrong about this one. Siding with #6 Frosted to foil #5 American Pharoah’s attempt at a Triple Crown. I’m truly envisioning a Smarty Jones’ type Belmont, where horses who aren’t typically on or near the lead are asked to go with American Pharoah early. I think they take just enough out of him for the fresh Frosted to run him down late. The horse was full of run late in the Derby and should relish every inch of the mile and a half Belmont Stakes. Obviously, #8 Materiality has the pedigree to get the distance as well. A son of 2006 Belmont winner Afleet Alex, out of a Langfuhr mare who has already produced Grade-1 winner My Miss Sophia, Materiality had plenty of excuses following a sixth place finish in the Derby. Think this is a three horse race. Heart wants Pharoah to do it but the mind is going with Frosted.

Race 12: No Selections

Race 13: No Selections

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