Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, June 19, 2016
On Sunday, we’re headed back out to Belmont Park, where we’ve got FREE PICKS and ANALYSIS from debuting guest handicapper Bobby Raposa ( @BobbyRap_).
Bobby is a student at the University of Rhode Island. He’s a newer handicapper but he’s has a lot of success. We’re looking forward to playing along with him on Sunday. Good luck! Take it away, Bobby…
Race 1: Claiming 3 year olds and up, 1 mile 110 yards, Dirt
Pass the Dice hasn’t run outside Aqueduct in six starts, but has an impressive record there. In two starts before his Aqueduct stint, this horse finished back to back thirds at Belmont. Our Caravan has faced some pretty tough competition over the past year or so and the little cutback in such should aid well for this horse. You Know I Know is my third pick here and could possibly get the job done. At morning line odds of 7/2 and could be higher when the gates open, he is my dark horse pick.
3-Pass the Dice (5-1)
4-Our Caravan (6/5)
1-You Know I Know (7/2)
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight, 3-year-olds and up, 7 furlongs, Turf
Junger bested Yummy Bear last time out at Belmont. Ordinaire is coming off back-to-back third place finishes, followed by a sixth place finish. Yummy Bear hasn’t finished outside of the top four from starts between 5 ½f to 1 1/16m and was third to Jungar’s second in a recent MSW and fourth to Ordinaire’s third in his first MSW. Moral of the story is I look for more of the same from these three.
2-Yummy Bear (7/2)
Race 3: Claiming, 3-year-olds and up, 6 ½ furlongs, Dirt
Fabulous Kid’s first time out he finished a respectable fifth behind the winner, Page McKenney. This horse also picked up a solid third place finish last time out at Belmont at this same distance. Celebrated Talent gets a cut back in distance here and has really shown to love this distance, as he has nine career starts, with a 9-2-3-1 record. I also like the fact that Castellano gets the mount. Erik the Red has had a great career up to seven furlongs, including a bulk of six furlongs races, in which he has finished inside the top four in nine out of 10 races. I don’t see the added half-furlong being any problem.
1-Fabulous Kid (5/2)
6-Celebrated Talent (3-1)
7-Erik the Red (4-1)
Race 4: Maiden, special weight, 3-year-olds and up, 7 furlongs, Turf
Athena’s Aegis ran a nice second to Deltalina her last time out over this track in a six-furlong race. I look for her to improve, as I really think she will enjoy the added distance. Llanita gets a cut back in distance here and has not finished outside of the top four her entire career. This is an impressive horse. Next up is More Than Kisses. This horse also gets a cut back in distance. Last time out she had a fourth place finish here at Belmont at eight furlongs. I see the cut back in distance being exactly what this horse needs. John Velazquez gets the mount.
2-Athena’s Aegis (6-1)
6-More Than Kisses (3-1)
Race 5: Allowance, 3-year-olds and up, 6 Furlongs, Dirt
Lady of Victory is coming off four straight runs at Belmont at seven furlongs or less, including a second place in a five and a half furlong race at Saratoga, and a 5-0-2-1 record between distances. Bruised Orange has come together nicely, as she has finished with back-to-back second place scores, including an impressive one against Too Discreet in the Schenetady. Quaver has not finished outside of the top four, with a respectable second to Lady Shipman in the Crank It Up.
2-Lady of Victory (3-1)
10-Bruised Orange (8-1)
Race 6: Claiming, 3-years-olds and up, 6 ½ Furlongs, Dirt
Corpie the Cat is coming off a fifth place finish a miles distance. However, she has a win at the six-furlong distance, which seems to be her preferred distance. With Todd Plethcer as her trainer, and Luis Saez aboard, I like this horses chances. Apache Warrior has eight races between six and seven furlongs with an 8-1-1-2-2 record. I look for this horse to continue his success. Down Town Kitty hasn’t raced outside of Aqueduct, but has shown to love the six-furlong distance. I really like the added half-furlong for this horse as well.
12-Corpie the Cat (4-1)
1-Apache Warrior (10-1)
6-Down Town Kitty (10-1)
Race 7: Allowance, 3-year-olds and up, 1 1/16m, Dirt
Fulmer has a second place finish here at Belmont, and a win last time out at the distance. With Joel Rosario aboard, I look for this horse to continue his success and take home the win. Coco Is Loco’s first career start and only run at 1 1/16m was a win at Aqueduct. Since then, this horse has had cut backs in distance and has not performed. I look for this horse to improve coming back to 1 1/16, especially with John Velazquez getting the mount. Ciffs of Dover is coming off a third place finish at the distance and also has a fourth place finish at it as well. I look for this horse to make an improvement in running form, but come up a bit short of the win.
9-Coco Is Loco (6-1)
3-Cliffs of Dover (7/2)
Race 8: Stakes, 3-year-olds only, 1 mile, Turf
Ava’s Kitten has three career wins and a respectable second place finish to Lady Shipman a couple of races back. With the cut back in talent here, I look for this filly to take home the win. Coming off back-to-back wins, including the last at Belmont, I see Tin Type Gal putting in a nice bid at the win, but coming up just shy of it. Estelle has finished in the top four in four out of six-career starts, and I see her putting in a nice performance here.
10-Ava’s Kitten (3-1)
9-Tin Type Gal (4-1)
Race 9: Maiden, special weight, 3-year-olds and up, 1 mile 110 yards, Dirt
Munchkin Money is coming off a fifth place finish to Sugar Reef’s third last time out. However, I look for this horse to improve here and take the win. Sugar Reef had a nice run last time out, and I see more of the same from this horse here as well. Kundray had a solid second place finish at the distance last time out against some decent competition. I really like how this horse has been shaping up.
2-Munchkin Money (5-1)
11-Sugar Reef (6-1)
8- Kundray (5/2)
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