Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, July 3, 2016
On Sunday, we’re headed back out to Belmont Park where we’ve got FREE PICKS and ANALYSIS from returning guest handicapper Rob Harding (@Harding_Rob).
We’re excited to have Rob back on DanonymousRacing.com. He always puts together extremely insightful previews. We encourage you to give him a follow on Twitter! when you get a chance.
Take it away, Rob…
#2 Madcap Heiress
#5 Blenheim Palace
Madcap Heiress goes out first time for Brad Cox, a 22% angle, and is out of Speightstown who does extraordinary well with his sprinter progeny. The workouts leading up to this one are pretty sharp, and would not surprise me in the least. Timido goes out first time for Clement and Alvarado. While Clement is known as a “turf” trainer, he actually has shown he can do quite well with dirt horses over the last few years as well. Although this one is out of champion grass horse Gio Ponti, the fact that Clement starts him on the dirt tells me that this one can do some running. Blenheim Palace goes out for racing royalty, the Phipps and Shug, and while Shug rarely has them cranked ready to go, the breeding on this one is sterling and someone talent alone can win the race.
#10 Carry Your Heels
#8 Toni Tools
#11 Summer Sweet
NY Bred races on the grass are usually won by a lot of offspring of Freud, and I think Terranova might have a good one here in Carry Your Heels. This one has Freud on the topside and Leroidesanimaux on the bottom side on the grass, Terranova does relatively well with his first timers, and while the workouts aren’t really eye catching, I’ll land here. Toni Tools goes out first time for Schettino, and in a race where no horse has started, you have to try and find value within these races. Finally, Summer Sweet should be the favorite based off of that huge purchase price and would be no surprise for the turf maestro Clement.
#3 Tale of the Heart
#5 All Over Me
I really think this race sets up nicely for the midpack/closer types in this race. I was torn on the top pick going between Tale of the Heart and All Over Me, but settled on Tale of the Heart, as claiming off Maker is ultra tough. In any event, Tale of the Heart has been off quite a while, but before that had been doing some really nice work. This one has no problems going further but might be able to get the jump on the deep closers going the shorter trip today. All Over Me goes from Maker to Morley, but Morley still does nice work with his new acquisitions and this is another seasoned turfer who like to win (5 for 16 on the grass lifetime). Finally, Protection looks like the horse who will be coming from the clouds if there is a major pace meltdown (a definite possibility given the amount of speed here).
#4 Hot City Girl
Hot City Girl is sure to be a short price in here, but she’s certainly been facing the classiest ponies of the bunch with Birdatthewire and Cavorting in the race two back, in which Hot City Girl actually defeated Cavorting. This gal has never gone the 6 furlongs distance, but should be able to show speed from the bell and may be good enough to not have to look back. Quezon is one who will be lagging behind the pace early on, but the shorter trip here should definitely be of higher preference and will be making a run late. Haveyougoneaway tried a longer trip last time out, and sat right off a scorching pace in the mud. While that effort may have taken a bit of starch out of her, Morley has given her five weeks off and she should be able to fire with an even better effort today.
#6 Miss Ella
#2 Distorted Beauty
#4 Unbridled Courage
The early pace looks like it will be very moderate for a 7F sprint on the grass, and so Miss Ella must be given a big chance. Rosario did his classic strangle job on this one in the early stages behind a 49 half going SEVEN FURLONGS!!! last time out. Motion clearly recognized that was a bad ride, and the switch to Franco can only be seen as a positive for me. Expect this one to be much more involved early on. Distorted Beauty has some of the best turf form in the field, and is obvious use based on the class relief and Belmont record. Unbridled Courage was close up to a slow pace last time and folded, but looks like the best of the rest for me based on how I see the race unfolding.
#4 Buckskin Doll
#2 Spectacular Flash
#5 Love You Babe
Buckskin Doll ran a credible race going a bit further last time out in the mud, but the trainer switch to Jason Servis, a 37% off the claim trainer, certainly jumps off the page. This horse has run well at Belmont and is 1/1 at the tricky 6.5 distance. Spectacular Flash is a must use based off of that effort last time out. A repeat of that effort will put this one right at the wire late. Love You Babe tried going further last time out, but came up empty late. He is one with a wicked late kick, and will be one to watch if the race melts down late.
#5 Light Years Away
#3 Wild Chatter
#2 Royal Temptress
I think it is time to spice up this card with a little bit of a price. Light Years Away has been overmatched lately, but when racing against slightly softer last fall, she ran some very credible races (including a 30-1 shocker). Looks to have the most speed of the bunch, but has shown the ability to rate as well. Linda Rice claimed Wild Chatter three back for 5k more than the price today, ran well against tougher in the last two tries and now Rice pushes the button to try and get that elusive W today. Seems the most logical of all the contenders in here. Royal Temptress ran some nice races last summer at Del Mar and in this weak field, I am hoping she can dig back to some of those better performances.
#12 Vision Perfect
This is a seriously difficult race to figure, so if you are playing the late pick 4, I would suggest spreading in this leg. Blacktype lost to a very nice horse last time out in Jay Gatsby. He did some running late but never really made any big headway, making me wonder if he was just running in place. Clement now makes a big equipment change and takes the blinkers off, a 25% angle, and 3rd off the bench will be this one’s time to shine. Vision Perfect exits that same race, and is marooned on the far outside. I am hoping Franco can establish early position early on, as this one is certainly good enough to win here if able to cross over early. Almasty is very sharp and has a lot of speed, but will face definite pace pressure from the rail and Macagone, but is a use based in the exotics based on that ultra-tough turf form.
#7 Charming Indy
#4 Humboldt N Frost
#3 Sandy Strikes
Charming Indy was not able to get started early enough in the last race going much shorter, but was starting to gain stride once all the running had been done. With the stretch back out to the preferred distance here, and a good amount of sprint speed signed on, I consider this one of my strongest plays on the card. Humboldt N Frost will be involved from the onset, but has shown the ability to stay even with some early pace pressure. The only concern is the expected pace pressure from Jet Black here. Sandy Strikes won an off the turf event three back, and while I do not think a contender for the top spot here, could stick around for a share of the pie.
#2 Satin Frost
#8 Jennifer’s Legacy
#4 Formas Joy
Stable horse alert!!! I bet Satin Frost in the last, hoping the switch to the turf would improve this one’s chances. Well, that all went out the window when he broke dead last, but this one made up remarkably ground considering the early pace was absolutely dawdling. I would expect 15-1 again or higher, and I will definitely be playing to win and in exactas. Need anything else? Schettino puts the blinks on, a 21% angle for the barn (5 for 24). Jennifers Legacy was put behind the eight ball in the last when a 25-1 wire to wire winner was able to dictate a very slow early pace. I would expect Dylan Davis to have this one a bit closer today. Formas Joy has some of the better turf races in the field, but they are a ways back, but in this caliber of race, a top effort from this one would hardly surprise me.
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