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Friday, July 8, 2016
On Friday, we’re headed out to Belmont Park, where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from returning guest handicapper Mark DiLorenzo Jr. (@MarkDiloJr).
Mark is another one of our favorite young handicappers. He spends endless hours analyzing races every week. Over the winter he provided his picks and analysis at Gulfstream ever Saturday, and this summer he’s our regular New York handicapper every Friday.
We’re thrilled to have him with us and encourage you to follow him on Twitter, when you get a chance.
Take it away, Mark…
As you read this, there will only be 14 days until the opening of SARATOGA! #GiddyUP
But you don’t have to wait long for world class racing, as tomorrow at Belmont is looking like one of the most competitive cards assembled all year. Today we have lesser quality fields, but still some spots to print some money.
Use my thoughts with your own and have a great weekend!
Race 1: 4/3 cold
On Top: #4 Twilight Eclipse 8/5: They pretty much wrote this horse for this old war horse. I have had some fun tossing this one for a long time now but I won’t try to get cute here. He will handle the distance and is much faster than these.
Under: If the race does fall apart, I’ll use #3 I’ll Call, who looks like will stalk the pace and has run good enough races in the past to get a piece if not win, and will be a ton of value.
Race 2: 2/ whoever takes money in the daily double probables.
On Top: #2 Littlemissbusiness 8/5: This one takes the biggest drop in racing and is going against very soft maiden claimers in here. I’ll see who takes money in the double pool but this one is a must use on my pk5.
Underneath: Whoever takes money in Will Pay Pool
Race 3: #3 my PK5 Single
Pick 5 Single: #3 Wake Up in Malibu 8-1: In this “Rudy Rodriguez Stake” race I’m going to live and die in the early pick 5 with #3 Wake up in Malibu. Last time out, off a layoff, he was on the front end of a big closer friendly track, and got passed by Connect, a very talented even money Chad Brown horse. He ran right back to his 4yo sheet number, and I look for this one to improve at a price, and be on the lead in a race that nobody looks thrilled to be on the lead.
On Top: #10 Passporttovictory 7/2: As I always say in these races, WATCH the BOARD. The horse players in NY are sharps and in these maiden races, whoever takes money is usually the one to beat. Before seeing the odds Ill side with three horses, but landed on #10 who has the strongest win early pedigree. The dam, Stowe White was a stakes winning 2yo, and her dams were also strong 2yo’s. JJ gets the call for a barn that he usually doesn’t ride for so I’m interested.
Under: #1 Snap Cat: has very nice win early pedigree as well, as his half sibling was a stakes winning 2yo, and last weekend Rudy took home a maiden first time starter who didn’t take any money at all, but the post scares me here. #2 Code Red also is out of a dam who was a Stakes Winner as a 2yo, so will also use on my pick five tickets.
Toss: The horses I won’t use are #3 Courtly Kitty and #5 Miss Freeze. Both are bred for the turf, and might be using this as a prep before a two turn Saratoga turf maiden race.
On Top: #3 Richie’s Rich: I’ll be using the three chalk to close out the late pick five, but landed on Richies Rich on top. Nevin is good off of this type of layoff and just made a small new top last time out, and is the horse to beat in here.
Underneath: #1 Rich n Tuck: This one is fast enough to win and if odds drift down because of the Servis claim, and the high beyer numbers on RIchies Rich I might use on top. #5 Roll Tide Roll: Servis is lights out off the claim, and this one will get bet because of it. My problem is that he has beaten down two WEAK fields this year, and sheet numbers are slower than the favorites.
Race 6: 6/ 3,4,9
On Top: #6 Congarette 3-1: I know JJ Castellano will see the same thing I see in the DRF and that is that there is no pace in this race. Two back this 4yo filly got to the lead and cleared and I hope she does the same today. Last time out she was very rank and didn’t look comfortable early, as she used a lot of energy . Also, two winners have come out of her last race so… let’s get this one home.
Underneath: #3 Somerset Sandy 5-1: Off a small layoff last time out this 3yo filly was behind a slow pace and a turf course that was slightly favoring speed. If there was any other pace in this race I would like this one even more, but JV doesn’t send and this one will finish second. #4 is talented and a repeat of her try two back wins this but not ready to key as the chalk, as her sheet numbers aren’t fast enough. The #9 I Hope You Dance is a must use for me on my late pick four, as her great dam sibs are stakes winners on the turf. If she takes money Ill press in this race.
Race 7: 5/ 10,8,2
On Top: #5 Nile Princess 10-1: I liked this one last time out but was scared of the post. The post did prove to be a problem as she had nowhere to go around the turn and down the lane, yet still showed a nice turn of foot coming home when she finally had room. Just as fast on the sheets as the favorites in here.
Underneath: #10 Bubbe Zena 10-1: This 4yo gets a much needed drop into the claiming ranks. Just as fast as many of these on the sheets, and last time out was off the pace in a race that favored the front end. Value here and will use on late pick 4. #8 Orzo will get bet down but the way Rudy is going right now I’m not leaving off my tickets. #2 Aussie Prayer is the one in here that I like but don’t love the post. With her style she needs to break quick and she can’t. Will use underneath in vertical wagers.
Race 8: 2/1,6
On Top: #2 Desiree Clary 2-1: Clement with Foreign shippers on the turf fires at 24%. With those going out over 300 days, he is only 1 for 7 but is also 43% in the money. That stat has me cautious, but this one might be a nice horse in the filly division this summer if her form is like what it was in the spring of 2015. In the Group 1 Prix de Diane she ran 2 lengths behind Star of Seville, a very talented turfer. Star of Seville was in very good form then as in her next race she was seventh, but a tough seventh in a group 1 behind Legatissimo, who should have won the BC F&M Turf at Keeneland if not for an awful start.
Underneath: #1 Bishop’s Pond could be my key in the race if odds are right, Servis always improves his horses and last time out, on Preakness day, she checked sharply around the turn and stopped. I found it interesting that day JJ took the call with Chad Brown not the trainer, and now Irad takes the call again without Brown as the trainer. #6 Queen’S Parade has had a boat load of excuses and can win here. Will be on my pick 4 tickets.
Race 9: 3/ 6,8,1
On Top: #3 Here Comes R J 3-1: It’s very hard to single and trust a Maiden Claimer but… Michelle Nevin claiming maidens is 6 for 12, and all of those six winners had over 34 days off, as this one does. Can a firster fire? Sure. Is the Rudy horse on the outside dangerous? Yes. But I’m pressing Here Comes RJ before I see what he looks like in the paddock.
Using on PK4: If I was to spread I would use #5 Let It Go Phil who is a half to a stakes winning dirt sprinter. #6 El Genio: is improving on the sheets. #8 Mr Curiosity who was up front to a face pace last time and fought on, and now cutting back. If #1 Peculiar Sensation takes money I’ll use in late verticals and would also include on a spread ticket as he has a nice improving sheet line.
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