Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, July 11, 2015
On Saturday, we’re headed back out to Belmont Park, where we’ve got FREE PICKS and ANALYSIS from returning guest handicapper, Andrew Calvano (@SJHorseReport).
It’s a pretty nice card today and we thank Andrew for putting together this great writeup on DanonymousRacing.com. Good luck if you’re playing along! Take it away, Andrew…
Thanks for stopping by today, and taking a look at my picks for this Belmont Card. I will update my Pick 5 play after scratches Saturday morning on my twitter. Good luck to everyone playing! Please follow me on twitter @SJHorseReport – if you found my picks insightful.
Best Bet – Race9 – #8 King Kressa
Best Value Play – Race 10 – #12 William’sluckygray
Pick 5 – $60
1 – 1,4,6
2 – 1,2,3,5
3 – 6
4 – 10,11
5 – 1,4,6,8,9
Late Pick 4 – $40
7 – 1,2,5,6
8 – 1,2
9 – 1,8
10 – 4,6,9,10,12
Race 1 – Only one of the nine horses entered for this maiden special weight sprint has raced before, and that’s the #1 Uno Emayo. Finished 3rd last time out. Rudy Rodriguez switches over to Irad Ortiz. Rail has been tough as of late in sprint races. So go elsewhere if you can for value. #4 The J Y Jet, first time out for Mark Henning and Rajiv Maragh who have been running at 50% this meet. Fired a bullet work out handily. Take a look at Rudy Rodriguez’s other entry the #6 No Entiendo, Keeneland grad, has been working out well.
4 – 1 – 6
Race 2 – #3 Flamingo Lane was a beaten 3rd last time out off a 7-month layoff, fits in well with this group. Jockey change to Jose Ortiz, suitable distance. #1 Silverville has run her best races in the last three months with cheaper, but maiden score was very impressive. Seems to be the only pace in this race unless the #4 is sent out as well, yet to finish outside of the money. #5 Tango Time, coming in off a 13-month layoff, making his debut for Todd Pletcher. Can’t throw this horse out. Add Lasix
3 – 1 – 5
Race 3 – #6 Bow Tie Boss is the one to beat here, four starts, four seconds, finishing behind some quality horses. Just seems to be ready to roll in this spot. #4 Tale Stone, first time starter for Ian Wilkes and Joel Rosario who has been impressive with first time starters. Nice price on this horse in a not so impressive field. #2 War Ride, big time purchase at the yearling sale, Asmussen is better with horses making their second start, yet his win numbers aren’t so impressive thus far. Ships up from Churchill after he chased extremely fast fractions and didn’t have much to finish with.
6 – 4 – 2
Race 4 – Trying to find away around the top two choices but having a hard time doing so. No one else seems ready for this spot. #10 Disco Partner proved he favors the grass after an impressive run down the stretch in last, just short. #11 Banana Thief also finished strong in that race with Disco Partner, after being bumped hard at the start. With MTO scratches, this horse will draw from the 8 slot, and should have no problem getting out. #8 Island Therapy goes back to the turf where he hasn’t run that bad, Gary Gullo keeps Rosario aboard. Should appreciate the change in scenery.
10 – 11 – 8
Race 5 – #4 Matching Skies is the one to beat here, drops back into a class where she has completely dominated. First off the claim for Jason Servis. Only Concerning thing here is the low percentage jockey. Watch the board with this one. #9 Darling Bridezilla also dropping down into a more reasonable class. Breaks from the outside, and should get right out to the early lead. #8 Colonel Juanita, run-away winner in last tries to repeat with same company. Going deep here in Pick 5, hoping to end off with value.
4 – 9 – 8
Race 6 – #4 Freudian Lights closed late in last, trying the turf for the first time. Stretches out a bit more. Had he had more distance to run down last time out, he was the winner. Jockey change here to Saez. #11 My Friend Keith has defiantly found the company he should be running with just needs to figure it out. 2 starts, 2 second this year after a long layoff. Today may be the day. #1 HushHushMushMush, toss out last race with a low percentage jockey, you have a horse that looks just as good as the favorite, at double the odds. Switch back to Irad is critical. #2 Edaway, First time starter for Clement and Rosario, may be a threat.
4 – 11 – 1
Race 7 – #2 Humbolt Street drops down to a career low, but has been running with a lot of heart in each of his races. Hopefully this big price comes in to start off Late Pick 4. #5 Culprit, also plunging to a career low after running in some solid races against some solid horses. Beaten favorite last time out in a class worth double than today’s. Irad up#6 African Fighter also goes up for a price tag after finishing last, trying the turf for the first time, last time out at Monmouth. First time at Belmont.
2 – 5 – 6
Race 8 – #2 Indebted, fourth time running out this year. Yet to finish outside of the money, even with larger fields. Will appreciate a few less horses in this spot. Clement gives the nod to Rosario. #1 Johnson City Kid, stretches out to a distance where he won his maiden two back. Was closing fast last time out, so added distance should help. Had a lot of horse left in the gallop-out. #9 Net Gain, trying grass for the first time for Bill Mott, WinStar and Junior Alvarado. Didn’t finish that bad in last two stakes tries.
2 – 1 – 9
Race 9 – #8 King Kressa has more wins on this track than anyone else in the race, and hasn’t finished outside of the money when going a mile. Fluke or not in the Poker Stks, this horse has always battled tough in every race he’s in. #1 Reload enters with a 3 race win streak, and looks to keep it rolling for Shug and Phipps Stables. 3 for 3 on the turf. #5 Grand Arch may go off as the favorite, and has every reason to. Has the most class in the race, just needs to bear down and pick up a win, first time at Belmont.
8 – 1 – 5
Race 10 – #10 Puparee enters here in a nice spot after lighting up the tote board in last. Breaks outside this time. Won’t get the odds like last time, but worth a shot if this horse floats above 7-1. #4 Tachiello enters for a price tag for the first time after facing much tougher in the early spring. This filly is hoping that class prevails. Should sit right off the pace. #6 Welcome Speech, a frequent at the claim box, has run some decent races since breaking maiden down in Florida. Nosed out two back. Will try again here, this time switching to Joel Rosario. #12 William’sluckygray has been running well during his 4yo campaign, finding himself in the money 5 out of 7 starts. Good use in exotics. Back to preferred distance and surface. Throw out 5/2/15 race where connections were eager to get this horse out on the turf and he bounced. Improvement here.
10 – 4 – 6 – 12
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