Who Do Ya Like?
Picks of the Day Submitted by You!
Friday, June 3, 2016
On Friday, we’re headed out to Belmont Park, where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS from returning guest handicapper Mark DiLorenzo Jr. (@MarkDiloJr).
Mark is another one of our favorite young handicappers. He spends endless hours analyzing races every week. Over the winter he provided his picks and analysis at Gulfstream ever Saturday, and this summer he’s our regular New York handicapper every Friday.
We’re thrilled to have him with us and encourage you to follow him on Twitter, when you get a chance.
Take it away, Mark…
I have been seeing Belmont clearly the last week, so let’s hope that continues for everyone on Friday. I hope everyone had a great and safe Memorial Day and I look forward to celebrating the next holiday weekend with you all, next weekend… Belmont Stakes Festival weekend! I’ll be at Belmont next Saturday, so let me know if you are making the trip…
Race 1: 1,5
#1 Random Walk- You DON’t get better win early pedigree than you do here. This 2yo colts family is loaded to win early. Violette % first time out has fallen a bit but it wasn’t to long ago he was firing at 30+% first time out with 2yo’s sprinting on the dirt.
#5 Battalion Runner- Foolish not to use Pletcher on pk5’s in races likes this. And when his horses has the type of win early pedigree this one does I have to use. This 2yo is a half to two first time out winners.
Race 2: 3 / 5,6,9
#3 Aix En Provence- I can’t ignore the HUGE TRAINER change here. With no improvement Aix En Provence might still win this race, but most claims from Gullo do infact improve and this one wins closes the early daily double.
#6 Mastic improved greatly moving into the Nevin barn last time out, and as a 4yo I can see this one holding her form. A repeat effort at 10-1 and this filly has lots of value.
#5 You Lie- drops all the way down to 16k and goes second time off the layoff. Had two legit excuses last time out, 1) ran way too fast early and 2) was against a closer friendly track. Will be likely favorite and a must use on early pk5
#9 Liberty Fuz- gets claimed by a Pino who is another who usually improves his horses. This one has back class to pull off an upset and I won’t leave off my pk5 at 8-1.
Race 3: 6/5,1,3
#6 Doinwhatshelikes- In a race where I see the 1,3,and 5 wanting the lead I’m going to take a shot with a price to pick up the pieces and pull off the upset. Doinwhatshelikes is going to get fast dirt on a non Aqu inner track for the first time since HER LAST WIN. Yes that last win came around week 2 of the NFL season but this one get the call of Irad and goes first time Englehart who is great off the claim moving them up in class on the dirt, 33% last 5 years.
#1,3 and 5 are all logical contenders and if one gets loose on the lead can steal it. On a deeper pick 5 ticket I would use all three, but if you were going to ask me who I would play in an exacta, with my on top choice, that would be #5 Time for Angie. Time for Angie can rate and pounce, and her one try at a mile was on Breeders Cup day, in a stakes race, a few years ago. Might like the distance, and if price is right I might press with.
On Top and PK5 Single: 8
#8 Cave Johnson- Is a very classy 3yo turfer. I liked him a bit at a price in the Cutler Bay Stakes at GP on March 26th and had tons of trouble and was never going to beat Giant Run, who got an easy lead and went wire to wire. He came back to Belmont and ran into a stakes like Allowance field vs Rays the Bar, who raced in the Breeders Cup last year, and again Cave Johnson was compromised by a slow pace and couldn’t catch wire to wire winner Scholar Athlete. Good Luck to AJ Suited Racing who are great ambassadors to racing and Danonymous racing!!!
Race 5: 9/8
#9 Truth- Lays over this field with a 9 sheet number last time out and these young 3yo only get better under Jimmy Jerkens so this is another horse that will be a very deserving favorite Friday.
#8 Val D’Isere- This 3yo has some very nice turf pedigree, as her dam is a half to a million dollar turf earner in Japan. Debuting at a mile and a qtr is not an easy task, and caught a softer Belmont turf course that day, so I can see this one moving forward in a big way second time out. #4 Warranty, #5 Subic Bay, and #7 Tiz Jeweled would be the others I would use if you want to be deeper in your early pick 5.
Race 6: 2/ 4,1
#2 Siding Spring- IF this 3yo can run back to his 2yo sheet number, which is highly likely he can win. If he improves even the slightest he wins for fun. Get back to preferred surface after facing four 3yo dirt horses that ran CAREER TOPs on dirt in all four derby prep races.
#4 Inspector Lynley- deserving favorite and had two excuses for his last effort. He was behind a relatively slow pace and was bothered and checked twice.
#1 Gio’s Calling- Goes from the parking lot post positions last two to the rail where he should sit a much better trip with his running style. I think he might want longer so cautious on the win end.
Race 7: 3/ 5,2
#3 Zippity Zoom- This 5yo mares faster races have come on the Aqueduct inner but even a subpar race could win this one. I see #2 Kentucky Road and #5 Bileaps and Bounds wanting the lead, setting quick fractions then #3 Zippity Zoom clearing down the lane.
#5 Bileaps and Bounds- made a big move on the sheets last time out and has always reacted to that effort in the past so expect her to again. Fast enough to have a chance though.
#2 Kentucky Road will want the lead, but weakened last time out after being alone on the lead going slow splits so don’t trust for my win money.
#8 Seeking Alpha- There is not much speed signed on in here so I’m going to take a shot with Seeking Alpha if the price is right. I don’t like how Chad Brows top jocks (JJ and Irad) are taking calls for Jerkens and Clement, but that might make my price even better. I like how he has two very strong workouts spaced perfectly for his return off his eased effort.
#6 Jay Gatsby- gets back to a distance he should prefer, and gets a big drop in class, relative to his last few. I don’t see any Takeover Targets, or Kaigun or Wake Forest types in here so this one is a must use for me in the late pk4.
#4 Slim Shadey- Hard to separate a lot of these so will use the Jacobson claim back in a race with a lot of questions marks. Also will use on a deeper ticket #3 Tagleeb, #5 Black Type, and #9 Under Control.
#1 Hardest Core- If he beats me I’ll tip my cap, but he will get bet because of how good he was almost two years ago. I hope this one isn’t being forced back into racing since he is a gelding, but I won’t lose a nickel on him Friday, off this type of layoff.
Race 9: 6/2
#6 Saturday Appeal- I like this one a lot in the night cap at a price. The last two races I had him against a dead rail and a speed bias. Two back he ran a very quick sheet number and was due to bounce last time out (as he has done in the past) With an effort anywhere near that race on April 17th he is a big overlay.
#2 and 2B- The Gullo pair are the deserving favorites and the ones to beat. I won’t let them beat me out of the late pk6 or 4 as City Steel could get loose on the lead and win.
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