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Friday, April 29, 2016
On Friday, we’re headed out to Belmont Park, where we’ve got FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS on from returning guest handicapper Mark DiLorenzo Jr. (@MarkDiloJr).
Mark is another one of our favorite young handicappers. He spends endless hours analyzing races every week. Over the winter he provided his picks and analysis at Gulfstream ever Saturday. This spring and summer, he switched his tack over to New York, providing FREE PICKS every Friday.
We’re thrilled to have him with us and encourage you to follow him on Twitter, when you get a chance.
Take it away, Mark…
Giddy Up! Spring is in the air and that only means one thing… The Run for the Ros… Noooo… BELMONT is BACK!
I thank Dan for letting me share my NYRA thoughts each Friday on his site, and can’t wait to PRINT SOME MONEY this spring meet.
1/1A: Blarney Stone 9-5
7: Our Ben’s Brush 6-1
4: Miroc 7/5
I told my man DANO that Blarney Stone was a horse I was waiting to run back 9 days ago, and I was disappointed in his effort on the 20th.. But two things happened that I’m willing to play back again at a short price. One, he didn’t start great and bore out hurting the horse to his outside as it not only hurt that horse’s chances, but his own. Two, if you watch the replay he flew by the winners past the wire, and I think this one deserves another shot. I’m not thrilled with the price of course but if the #1 Game of Stones SCR I’ll like even more as I love when they scratch a “stronger entree” Game of Stones took a TON of money FTO and is a player if runs, and will also use in pk5 in they scratch the #1A. #7 Our Bens Brush ran on the same dead rail that Blarney Stone ran on, on April 6th. Showed speed and is going to improve 2nd time out, and I will use in cold TRI and Pk 5 if scratches work in my favor #4 Miroc is a must use in early pick 5 as he has tons of numbers power on the Bel surface and AQU main track. Did he not like the inner? Or is he never going to win. Takes a huge drop but with 3mo off this horse isn’t taking a dollar of win money of mine…
#9 More Than Rainbows 20-1
#7 Awesome Quick 2-1
#8 Wild bella 9-5
I’m going to play a nice Tri and Ex Wheel in here using #9 More Than Rainbows as my key. This horse doesn’t have a ton of turf pedigree, but look back to early on in his career and he broke his maiden second time out going wire to wire on the turf. Then moved up to a stakes on poly and ran flat. Then ran vs better on the turf going two turns where he showed speed but faltered late. 20-1 is too good to pass in this spot. #7 and #8 are logical and have numbers power. Will use in pk5 but no win value IMO.
#2 Corpie the Cat 10-1
# 3 Union River 5-1
#5 Core Portfolio 5-2
Wide open race IMO, this starter allowance 3rd. I can’t pass up this TAP horse off a claim with the classic TAP work out pattern I always look for. Small sample but two times TAP has claimed a horse and stretched them out and both times they won. #3 Union River broke through with a small new top 3 back in a claiming race, and then two back was against a gold rail, and then last time out was against a speed bias, I see value and will def use in pk5. #5 Core Portfolio is a horse that I’ve been chasing and another that can win in here. Has the perfect Violette work pattern with bullets and could clear the field.
#11 Ragazza Di Papa 7-2
#10 Bea Bea 3-1
#5 Forma’s Joy 20-1
I don’t like many of the first time starters pedigree or I would be using one of them in here, so I landed on #11 Ragazza Di Papa. I was impressed with this horse first time out sprinting with a wide post and running green. Second time out he rallied nicely going two turns and should only improve maturing this winter. #10 Bea Bea is another I was very impressed with FTO and then ran into a race off the turf, a route, and a dirt race as a 2yo. Will also improve and once again gets nice Violette work pattern coming into this race. #5 Forma’s Joy is a price but has numbers power and switches into Steve Jerkens barn that can pop here.
#1 Animal Appeal 3-1
#2 Bubba Zena 10-1
#3 Hillaryinthehouse 7-2 hoping Hillary finishes second or third today and also second or third in November… if you know what I mean : )
I don’t like the inside post in a turf sprint but the #1 Animal Appeal seems to be the class in here. I was impressed with his two turf tries at Bel last year as he ran VERY fast splits and holding on strong. Ran a career new top off a layoff and should be ready for fire off a layoff in here for Englehart and Rosario. Bubba Zena wants the turf and his sheet numbers show it has he made a huge improvement last time out. Didn’t have the greatest trip and could pull an upset. #3 Hillaryinthehouse will only improve for a barn that can fire fresh and this 4yo vs 3yo could be the one to beat and I’m interested to see what the odds are.
#3 Winter Games 7-2
#2 Point Hope 8-1
#6 North Slope 2-1
I don’t see much speed signed on here. I’m hoping Kendrick uses his speed to get out to a lead, and stays there. This horse consistently runs nice sheet numbers and his 0-2 at Belmont doesn’t scare me, as those races were two years ago, and one of those races was on a bad sloppy track. Nobody was hotter at AQU than Rudy Rod. Can he carry that over? Why not. Horse seems to like a little bit extra rest and Rudy Rod excels with these types of layoffs after a claim. Last time out closed into a slow pace too, I’m using in late pk 4. #6 North Slope seems to be the class of the race and if repeats his last can win but will he get pace to close into? Ill play a ex and tri wheel 3/2,6.
#2 Neck of the Moon 3-1
#1a My Cara Mia 12-1
#6 Stormy Victoria 4-1 keep an eye on the other Clement if he takes money….
Tough race to get your hands around as some top notch turf trainers have a few going in here. I’ll take my shot with the Chad Brown horse on the rail that can run fresh and has a TON of numbers power #2 Neck of the Moon. Ill use the Clement horse that is getting Rosario aboard who has beaten colts, has a nice workout pattern and get Lasix. Ill use the other Clement underneath too if he takes money but will also use #1a My Cara Mia who gets back to one turn and should improve second time off the layoff.
#1 Drama King 7-2
#9 Bond Vigilante 15-1
#5 Loki’s Vengeance 3-1
I see a lot of speed signed on in here. #1 Drama King is a horse than has proven that he can stalk and pounce, and…this horse has been improving for some time now. His FTO as a 4yo he was up close to a VERY fast pace and hung on. Two back made a nice small new top and pounced into a small speed duel, which I see happening today. Toss the last in the mud on a speed bias track….and I’m all in on #1 Drama KING!! #9 Bond Vigilante could sit a very nice trip. He has early speed and could sit outside the speed to the inside and Carmouche can take advantage of this. His race last time out vs OPEN company he set a pace where he dueled going too fast, and did something similar two back on the inner. If he can get a better trip and go back to his wider form he can win. #8 Eye Luv Lulu is another speed in here that could sit a nice trip. I was super impressed with him last time out where he went VERY quick early and cleaned, but I had that track alil speed favoring. #5 Loki’s Vengeance won this race last year but had two nice races leading into race. This year a layoff and a poor effort has me scratch my head, but that was in a G3.
#9 Pira 5-1
#4 Wake Up Smiling 3-1
I’m using only two to close out the pick 4 and pick 6. I landed on #9 Pira on top as I was very impressed with him FTO. He didn’t start well, but closed into slow fractions last fall. Gets a nice jockey change and should be right there. #4 Wake Up Smiling is a 4yo vs many 3 yo’s and gets a big trainer change IMO. A repeat off of her performances last summer has her win easy here.
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