DERBY WEEKEND WRAP-UP: FINAL DERBY WATCH

Derby Weekend Wrap-Up

Final Derby Watch

Thursday, May 4, 2017

by Andrew Rdesinski

Here at Danonymous Racing, we’re happy to introduce a new recurring column series: the Derby Weekend Wrap-Up, with our own Andrew Rdesinski!

You may know Andrew from his write-ups of the racing action at Santa Anita Park every Sunday. For the past few months, he gave out his opinions on all the Derby prep races. Now, he’s giving out his final Derby selections. We thank Andrew for providing this thoughts over the last few months!

Give Andrew a follow on twitter at @phillyboy415!

1st Choice – #10 Gunnevera

Gunnevera is and always has been my top selection since Saratoga. I enjoy his post position at #10 out of 20, and I feel it helps him be able to drop back and sit where he wants to. He has been the most consistent and has the best track record while being consistent. He has trained and behaved well this whole campaign. What is not to like?

2nd Choice – #8 Hence

Hence has grown on me since his Sunland Derby win, and he has handled the Churchill Downs track well in the mornings. The addition of Florent Geroux is a huge plus for me, even though it would be cool to see journeyman Juarez keep the mount. I really like Hence’s form coming out of the Sunland Derby, since Conquest Mo Money almost won his next race out in the Arkansas Derby, in which he lost to Classic Empire. Must use no matter what for me.

3rd Choice – #14 Classic Empire and #5 Always Dreaming

I have two choices tied for my 3rd Choice. Classic Empire, is been the most formful this campaign, but has been a bit stubborn from time to time, and has battled some small injuries. If he is healthy and acts more calm on Saturday, he has a shot to win as a favorite, and a really good shot at that. I am not that big of a fan of Always Dreaming. The Gulfstream track on Florida Derby day carried the speed and horses in front in the stretch. Always Dreaming was helped by that, but I still think he can be the real deal. The post is a dreadful one, but maybe he can get to the spot he wants.

Tosses

#2 Thunder Snow

The post is more dreadful for him than the #1 Lookin at Lee, because this horse wants to be closer to the lead that Lookin at Lee, so Thunder Snow is almost like the true #1 hole horse.

#3 Fast and Accurate

This horse is a toss simply based off of class and form.

#4 Untrapped

This horse hasn’t won since his maiden and earned enough points running 2nd and 3rd to make it to today.

#6 State of Honor

This horse is similar to Untrapped, and shouldn’t be able to compete in this field.

#7 Girvin

Sadly Girvin went from top 5 to bottom 5, due to his quarter crack and not training. Wouldn’t be surprised if he scratches.

#11 Battle of Midway

Not enough experience for him, and unfavorable post position for his tactical speed.

#12 Sonneteer

No maiden has won the Derby since 1919.

#13 J Boys Echo

Never been a fan, and coming out of a weak bunch up in the New York circuit of 3yos.

#20 Patch

Horrible post position and not enough class, but would be cool for a horse with one eye to win the derby.

My Derby Day Bets

Pick 4 ending in the Derby

2,4,5,7,10,11 w 1,2, w 1,2,3,7,8 w 5,8,10,14,15 = $150

Pick 3 ending in derby

1,2 w 1,2,3,7,8 w 5,8,10,14,15 = $25

Win bets in Derby

$2 to win on 5,8,10,14,15 = $10

WPS on 8,10 = $12

$1 Exacta

5,8,10,14,15 boxed = $20

Tri

8,10 w 5,8,10,14,15 w 5,9,14,15,17,19 = $16

10 cent Super

8,10 w 5,8,10,14,15 w 5,8,9,10,14,15,17,19 w 1,5,8,9,10,14,15,16,17,18,19 = $ 38.40

(photo courtesy Churchill Downs)

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.

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