Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, November 18, 2017
The fall meet party continues this Saturday at Del Mar. This card features nine races, headlined by the Desi Arnaz Stakes, for two-year-olds.
We’ve got Robert Criscola (@itsgood2beking) providing FREE picks & analysis of all the action! Robert’s been our main California guy for a while now, and in addition to SoCal handicapping, does a trip notes column for the site every Tuesday! Be sure to check out his work.
Good luck, and take it away, Robert!
We have another strong nine-race card to consider at Del Mar this Saturday, headlined by the Desi Arnaz Stakes for two-year-old fillies. This is a nice appetizer before Thanksgiving weekend, which will have stakes races galore. Let’s dig in!
Race 1: 2-3-4-11
#2 UNCLE BILLY was a close fifth in his turf debut last month, which came off a long layoff. He should benefit from the cutback and the Miller barn has been scorching-hot at the meet so far (32%). #3 SUNDAY PROPHET stopped when asked to go a mile in his second career start but was a strong second at this course and distance in his August debut. #4 LITTLE JUANITO, third with a wide trip in his turf bow, has made a habit of settling for minor awards (7-0-2-4 career record); must-use underneath. #11 MILHAUD fits with these on speed figures but must draw in off the AE list.
Race 2: 7-3-4
#7 RED CARPET CAT is certainly fast enough to take this based on his last two dirt figs and should find himself in a good stalking position; top preference. #3 THE CRITICAL WAY began his career 2-for-2 before hitting the shelf and finding his comeback spot much too difficult; this is a more realistic assignment. #4 BURN ME TWICE has been off since consecutive August romps over this course against lesser; respect.
Race 3: 3-1-6
#3 HELEN’S TIGER was a no-show from the rail post at Santa Anita last time but was a close fourth in a stake at Los Al and third in a similar spot here last summer; tepid pick in a weak race. #1 DIXIE LASSIE outran her odds in her dirt debut (3rd at 99-1) and sheds weight today; consider. #6 KISS OF DAHPESPE cost just $10k but is bred to be precocious and lures Roman.
Race 4: 8-1-3
#8 JERSEY’S HEAT drew the dreaded rail post going downhill in his turf debut but closed to be a respectable third. He’s bred to handle the added ground, so he gets the call. #1 HARDBOOT had moderate late interest in his unveiling but finished two lengths behind the top choice. He may improve with Lasix and blinkers added. #3 SMART KNOWS SMART transfers to the Miller barn and may take to the turf based on pedigree.
Race 5: 2-3-6
The Desi Arnaz Stakes
#2 MS BAD BEHAVIOR is the one to beat as she’s steadily improved from start to start and finally broke through the maiden ranks last time out. The added 1/16th should be no problem. #6 DREAM TREE and #3 MIDNIGHT BISOU were noses apart in the same maiden heat but DREAM TREE won the bob. Edge to the latter today at a potentially better price with Bejarano representing an upgrade in the saddle.
Race 6: 3-1-6
#3 PAINTING CORNERS wheels back quickly after finishing a troubled fourth last week (http://www.danonymousracing.com/trip-notes-robert-criscola-tuesday-november-14-2017/) and sheds weight with Roman; the pick. #1 LAJATICO misfired in his last try here but is freshened up and has back class to boast. #6 LITTLE VOICE was a solid third in a similar spot here last year but has run two straight duds at Santa Anita, perhaps not caring for the downhill course; watch the board.
Race 7: 4-8-3-1
#4 PARTY HOSTESS lost by just a head despite dueling throughout in similar conditions last time; should atone. #8 PRINCESS DORIAN, a half-length behind the top pick in the same last-out heat, has run just one bad race in her five-start career but it came at Del Mar. #3 RECKLESS CHARM and #1 DEMIGODDESS will be rolling late for minor spoils.
Race 8: 9-8-3
#9 HARBOUR MASTER drops in class after running second in a non-graded stake on opening day. He’s been close on a couple of occasions in spots like this but may finally break through. #8 HOOTIE gets a rider upgrade to Prat off back-to-back thirds at similar levels; respect. #3 FLY TO MARS was a convincing winner in his preliminary turf try, albeit vs. softer.
Race 9: 1-8-6-3-7
#1 BRADDOCK outgamed ML favorite #8 MAKE IT A TRIPLE when they met at Santa Anita on Oct. 14; quite possible that result repeats itself in the nightcap. MAKE IT A TRIPLE might be dressed up after controlling a sensible pace in victory last time out but can’t be excluded based on speed figures. #6 MY MAN CHUCKLES has decent dirt form to run back to as he tries a new low. #3 GENTRIFIED and #7 LINDANTE should be involved late.
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