Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Friday, November 24, 2017
The day after Thanksgiving, Del Mar’s got a great 8-race card lined up. The headliner is the Hollywood Turf Cup, which drew a field of nine, and will go as the seventh race.
We’re happy to have Adam Dodge (@dodgevadar) providing FREE picks & analysis of all the action. Be sure to give Adam a follow on twitter; he’s making his Danonymous debut today!
Good luck, and take it away, Adam!
We have a terrific post-Thanksgiving Friday card at Del Mar. I’m price hunting today, so get your longshot shoes on, and let’s hit a race or two!
Race 1: 8-11-6
#8 ROCKAWAY presents our first longshot opportunity of the day. Plagued by slow starts in all of his previous starts, Rockaway comes into this effort with the ultimate equipment change, having been recently gelded. The connections thought enough of him to try him in a Stakes in his second start. Some of my best scores have been made with first-time geldings and we’ll try to connect here.
#11 FENGARI stretches out to a mile for Sadler and Prat. Sadler is 22% sending out first time routers and Prat can find a good trip on the turf as well as any in this jock colony.
#6 Midnight Soot has run well enough on dirt that if he takes to the turf he fits nicely with this group. D’Amato makes the surface change at a 15% clip.
I’m against ML favorite Falcone who tried claiming last out, albeit for $100K. Desormeaux is 0-30 in 2017 moving runners up from Maiden Claiming to Maiden Special Weight.
Race 2: 2-1-6
#2 JUST BE HELD narrowly lost from on the lead three races back at this level at Del Mar. If he gets loose he’s got a big shot.
#1 POMP AND PARTY simply looks like the fastest horse in a tricky little race, comprised of droppers a Louisiana Downs shipper and a couple that might be damaged goods.
#6 VELVET JONES returns to the races off the layoff for a Miller barn that is on fire!
Race 3: 7-9-5
#7 CANDY CREW has shown great early foot in his first two tries on dirt. No one can negotiate tight turns like the King of the Bull Ring, Martin Pedroza who takes the mount here. There’s other speed in here so beware but the price will be right on this one.
#9 FACTOROFWON is the other speed in this one. She tries boys here but could clear from the outside. If she does she’ll be dangerous.
#5 COUNT ALEXANDER might be the class of this race having run in the Juvenile Sprint Stakes on BC Saturday. He could simply be the best of these. If the pace gets too hot, expect this one to romp in the lane.
Race 4: 1-5-3
I don’t expect to get too involved in this race, which looks like a hot mess on paper.
#1 MOMMAS BABY BOY simply looks like the fastest horse in this group of “just okay” MSWs.
#5 CAPTIVATE is logical and has improved in every start. He’s the most likely to hit the board for you Show players out there.
#3 CALIFORNIA STREET could take a step forward in his 3rd lifetime start.
I’m solidly against #4 ZIPMAN for Baffert. Never a good sign when Bob debuts a horse on turf. He then sent him to the dirt then back to the turf. He tries dirt again here and figures to take a lot of action. Playing this one out of the tri might be our best shot at creating some value in this race.
Race 5: 4-5-7
#4 ESKIMO ROSES could be loose on the leas in here at a nice price. In fact I would expect this one to drift up from that morning line. Maldonado on speed is a profitable combination!
#5 BIG BUZZ almost got there last time out and should be a deserving favorite.
#7 ARCH ANTHEM is interesting in this spot. They add blinkers which could put this one closer to the pace. If he can still show the late kick he’s shown in previous starts he has every right to improve.
Race 6: 6-8-2
#6 STONE HANDS is a longshot in this field and my price play of the day. If you draw a line through his last two – a route and an effort down the hill at Santa Anita, his dirt sprints have been pretty good. He broke his maiden on this surface three back. This isn’t a scary group and at Del Mar my number on angle is previous success at the track.
#8 CLEAR THE MINE ships in for George Weaver and cuts back. I prefer cut backs to 6.5 or 7 Furlongs. 6 might be a bit short for this one.
#2 SPECTRE BOND ships in for Mark Casse after an impressive debut at Belmont.
Race 7: 1-4-3
#1 CHICAGO STYLE made a name for himself this summer at Del Mar, winning a couple of allowance races in impressive fashion. He tried stakes company last out going 10F at Santa Anita. We know he likes Del Mar and he should truly appreciate the added distance in his second stakes try. Hopefully I’ll be rooting this one home to connect on a cold double with Stone Hands in race 6.
#4 Tequila Joe takes a step up in class but is yet another that seems to love the Del Mar turf course with a pair of wins and a second in three tries.
#3 FLAMBOYANT always runs well and always finishes third. I expect him to do the same in this one.
Race 8: 1-4-8
#1 PSYCHEDELICAT tries this level again after a decent third last out, closing into pretty hot fractions going 6F. Look for him to save ground on the rail and a repeat of his last might get him there at 7F.
#4 BARDSTOWN is a must use. He’s a 6 year old who recently returned to the races after several years off. He tries bottom level maidens for the first time.
#8 DOWNSIDE UP will be charging home late a nice price.
LATE PICK 4 PLAY ($13.50)
Leg 1: 4,5,7
Leg 2: 2,8,6
Leg 3: 1
Leg 4: 1,4,8
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