Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, November 25, 2017
It’s the penultimate day of the Churchill Downs fall meet, which means it’s “Stars of Tomorrow” day. All 12 races are for 2-year-olds, including two stakes races, the Golden Rod and the Kentucky Jockey Club. First race is at 1:00 PM EST.
We’ve got FREE picks & analysis of the whole card from Richard Mattei (@RichMattei16). Richard has served as one of the announcers and handicappers for the harness racing action at Ocean Downs, near Ocean City, Maryland, and also works at Harrah’s Philadelphia racetrack and Freehold Raceway. We’re happy to have him contributing to Danonymous Racing today, and we encourage you to give him a follow when you get the chance.
Take it away, Richard!
Best Bet Race 11: (12) Tiz Mischief
Race 1) (1) Battle Station was up on a pace that totally collapsed last time out. Now he cuts back in distance and should be the controlling speed. (4) Seven Trumpets was cooked while chasing the pace in his debut at odds-on, next time out he sat right in behind the speed and found room in the final eight of a mile and crushed that field. (9) O’ Malley’s March was up on the pace in a stakes race last time and hung on well to be beaten by less than a length.
Race 2) The (6) Red Ruby is coming out of a race where the winner was just under a hand ride and much the best. She should appreciate the stretch out as she is a half to Graded Stakes winner Mo Tom. Another coming out of that race that stopped was (4) Mia d’Oro as the odds-on favorite. But she should appreciate the two turns as well, she is a half to Graded Stakes winner Weemissfrankie. (12) Eight Minute Ellie really improved going around two turns last time out running third to a Mark Casse odds-on favorite at Keeneland. Can improve once again.
Race 3) (1) Go Google Yourself crushed a maiden group last time out, she rushed up the inside and took control around the far turn and won by open lengths under a hand ride. Can repeat. (10) Queen Mum Chased a odds-on favorite in a stakes last time out, who we will be seeing in the Golden Rod later on the card. One of the horses to beat. (6) Trust has been up on hot paces in her two starts including last time where she won. Could be on the lead in this one.
Race 4) (5) Super Factor gets back to the turf after a go on the main track last time out, last time he was on turf though he closed nicely to finish third. (12) Rare Form raced even in his first start, now he will run on the grass for the first time. Nice bullet work in his last. He is a half to Graded Stake Winner Polar River. (9) Funny Duck did not have the best of trips in his turf debut as he had to avoid a fallen foe on the racetrack. Should improve second start on the grass.
Race 5) (2) Champagne All Day is going to try the dirt for the first time, showed brief speed at Kentucky Downs before throwing in the towel. She also cuts back in distance. (3) Bootsy’s Hadenough never got into her debut race, then last time out she was up on a hot pace that fell apart. She is also bred to sprint as she is a half to Graded Stakes placed American Pasttime. (8) Lightning Twice is a first time starter, who is bred to win first time out as she is a full sister to debut winner and Graded Stakes winner Kauai Katie.
Race 6) The (5) Mia Mischief is way the horse to beat in this race as she stands out in figures over this field. She did lose at odds-on in a stakes race though, but this is a much easier spot. Another coming out of that race is the (11) Foxy Mischief, who was up on the pace and faded. Could bounce back on the drop in class. (7) Lady O’ Toole is coming back to the dirt, which she won on in her last start on the surface. Probably didn’t like the off going last time out on turf.
Race 7) (1) Song Of the Nile was in one of the tougher Maiden Races that they ran all meet at Saratoga, he was also bet a little bit that day. He was up on the pace that took its toll as the field walked home though. The fifth place finisher in that race came back to win in his next start. Good works coming into this race. (12) Payne ran even to finish in the money in his first start. The winner of that race came back to beat allowance horses in his next start at Keeneland. (8) Dream Baby Dream was shuffled back in his last start, but came back on to just miss in a Stakes race.
Race 8) (3) Persephone’s Dawn was up on the pace last time out and faded, now she tries the turf for the first time. She is a half to multiple Graded Stakes winner Don’t Get Mad. (7)Sippin Kitten is making her debut for turf expert Mike Maker. She is a half to multiple earners of over $100,000 on grass. (11) Gentle Ruler ran well last time to close, but now she gets post 11, so she will have to try and do it from the back of the field again.
Race 9) Yes the (12) Ipanema Beach did get a perfect set-up in her debut race, as she closed into a fast pace. But she should relish the stretch-out in distance as she is bred to run around two turns as her dam is a Graded Stakes winner going a route of ground. Can improve second time out. (6) Monomoy Girl crushed the field in her first start on dirt, but she wasn’t challenge on the lead and set moderate fractions. Still the horse to beat. (8) Stronger Than Ever closed into a slow pace in her last race, she should be able to close again today.
Race 10) (7) Title Ready ran very well last time out, he was outside chasing a hot pace and still ended up winning the race. Even two starts back, he ran into a deep Maiden field as the second place finisher came back to win one of the toughest Maiden Races run at the Keeneland Fall Meet. Can win two in a row here. (8) Oskar Blues ran really well at huge odds in his debut. That being said, he did race on the best part of the track that day. Last time out he ran into a buzzsaw, but now he is cutting back to a one-turn race which he should appreciate. (11) Jersey Justice is cutting back after controlling the pace in an Indiana-Bred Stake race in his last.
Race 11) (12) Tiz Mischief ran in the best Maiden race that was run at the Keeneland Fall Meet going around two turns and he crushed that field. He came from well out of it in a race that was not all that taxing when it comes to the pace of the race, he went in and out of traffic and won under a hand ride. Should be tough here again. (11) Quips controlled the pace in an allowance race at Keeneland but crushed that field opening up around the far turn and cruising home to victory. Has enough tactical speed to get into the race form Post 11. (13) Lone Sailor had a very tough trip in his only two-turn try, where he had to avoid a broken down horse just as he was hitting his best stride. Then he was too close to the pace in his last race and probably would have won if he was the horse on the outside, instead of fighting from down towards the rail. Another with a big shot.
Race 12) (8) Victory Lane was unlucky to lose that last race as he had trouble, and was out of the race for most of it, then came flying late to miss by a nose. He is a half to two Stakes Winning routers. (1) Tweeter in Chief should have run a lot better than he did in his last start, but he was fractious at the gate and was keen in the first half of the race. Should relax better going around two-turns. (10) Enjoy the Journey was shuffled back in his last race and came on again to finish third.
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