Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Thursday, June 29, 2017
We’re heading up north on Danonymous Racing, for some Thursday action at Canterbury Park! Canterbury’s one of the best nighttime tracks in the country, and we’re happy to have Dave Handeland (@SuperStatsDave) providing FREE picks & analysis of the ten-race card. The first race is scheduled for 6:40 PM CDT.
Take it away, Dave!
We’ll see if we can break the three victory barrier after going 3/10 in Week 1 and following that up with going 3/9 last week. Last week if you played the early pick 4 ticket you cashed. We were hoping for a little better result than $65, but we just couldn’t catch a price.
Canterbury is running Thursday through Tuesday this week and then taking a week off as sort of a halftime for the summer season. The Jackpot Pick 5 which begins in Race 6 has a carryover of 142K and has been seeing about 15-25K bet into it on Thursday nights. If you can hit a pair of 10-1’s or more you have a shot of taking it down. Good Luck everyone and have a safe 4th of July Weekend.
Race 1 (QH’s) 7-1-8
#7 Toast on Fire is from an 0-31 barn but drops into a winnable spot versus some claimers after racing in a stakes race last time out. This barn needs a win badly so this one is entered to win.
#1 Hiclass Man gets the services of Oscar Delgado who has won on 10 times in his 31 starts at CBY this summer. The speed numbers make this one dangerous.
#8 No Alibyes has just missed at this distance and reunites with the jockey that was on board for the only career win on his resume.
Race 2 (QH’s) 10-3-11
#10 Pee Why See has the Delgado/Edward Ross Hardy combo that wins 35% of the time in its corner. Drops into the 6250 MC level and has a nice post on the far outside.
#3 Vixens Ivory Hero has been in some close races that were longer and at a higher level. The class drop and running 50 fewer yards only help this one.
#11 CF High Rate Lady is an Also-Eligible for Edward Ross Hardy. If this one gets in she will be the main threat after showing good form in Oklahoma.
Race 3 (Turf) 6-7-2
#6 Blue Bomber Is the main threat to Impromptu in this three turn turf route. This guy has raced in five straight stakes races in Arizona and has been up front in all of them. As we’ve seen on the Shakopee turf, speed is the key to victory and Orlando Mojica used that to his advantage last week in a couple of victories. There is some other speed in here but I also love the fact that Blue Bomber is 2-2 at this distance on the turf.
#7 Impromptu is the deserving favorite and in his last five CBY starts has finished no worse than 2nd. Dean Butler know the buttons to push here and will likely choose to stalk Blue Bomber and pounce when the time comes. This 1 and 3/8th mile distance is not a common race at CBY so the jockeys are going to have to be patient which will be a fun thing to watch due to the speed requirement that we have seen. If Blue Bomber goes too fast and Impromptu chases, then this whole race could come apart.
#2 Politicallycorrect is already 2-2 at CBY this summer and is trying for a 3rd straight as Jareth Loveberry and Mac Robertson continue to team up this summer. With Kitten’s Joy siring this one, we know that turf routing is something that is in the bloodlines. I think this one is slightly lower than the top two when it comes to your P3’s and P4’s.
Race 4 (Turf) 5-1-2
#5 Sanilac in my TIMID choice in the mile race on the turf for optional claimers. This one appears to have some speed in a race that lacks speed. My biggest concerns here are that there is no turf history along with that the Butler/Bethke combo is 0-8. It does appear that the change of running styles from being a closer to becoming a speed horse has been a magic trick for this one.
#1 Irish Beauty is 4th off of a layoff and appears to be ready to fire now. The closing running style worries me but maybe Andrew Ramgeet tries to switch styles up here a bit. Ramgeet jumps off of back to back victories on Bear Facts to take this mount for trainer (and owner) Doug Oliver, who has been really aggressive with this filly as she has been entered in a trio of stakes races in her last four attempts. In a wide open event I wouldn’t be shocked if this filly was leading the field down the stretch.
#10 Bear Facts has won a pair of races in a row under Ramgeet but now gets the services of Mojica and this is not a downgrade at all despite taking a small step up in the class ladder. Last race out I thought Caviar Kitty was going to be the easy winner but then Bear Facts made it a point to destroy that thought (and my bets). At this distance on the turf, Bear Facts has been part of the exacta in 9 of her 19 races so leave out at your own risk.
Race 5 (Turf race with 14 entries) 3-10-11
#3 Infinite Magic is a Robertino Diodoro runner that spent the fall and winter being competitive at Del Mar & Santa Anita in 25K to 32K claiming races and is now dropping to the $7500 claiming level. With JD Acosta away from Canterbury, Diodoro turns to Andrew Ramgeet who I feel is an upgrade for the Diodoro horses. This one was supposed to run last week but due to the races coming off of the turf it scratched.
#10 Pennant Fever is a MN bred taking on all comers here and Jenna Joubert will send him and dare the others to come with and chase. This a gritty old field and if this one goes and gets loose maybe the other runners will just say screw it and decide to race for 2nd. Should be exciting as this one messes with your emotions at the top of the stretch.
#11 Slip and Drive is using the waiver in his 1st race of 2017 to avoid the possibility of being claimed. The works do not stand out but if the connections thought that this 9 year old was done they’d likely have left the claiming option open. The running line is sketchy with only 9 races run since June of 2015 so it must be healthy and ready to run. They were set to debut him last week but the weather prevented that from happening.
Race 6 5-9-1
What a doozy of 10K Minnesota-Bred Maiden Claimers to close the early P4 and start the P5.
#5 Academic Bay is the likely winner here and probably solo on some tickets but tread lightly. The extra distance should help this filly a little bit but be careful. Quincy Hamilton has the mount this time after Alex Canchari wasn’t able to secure a victory in the last two efforts.
#9 Clever Hest is a four year-old first timer who has ten works leading into this including a string of five furlong works which should help the conditioning and has since turned it up with some speedier gate works.
#1 Frisky Freddie has one of the best names at the track and that is the best thing that it has going for it. In both starts in 2016 some speed was shown along with the ability to absolutely stop. For the 2017 debut they are giving Freddie Lasix for the 1st time and maybe that will propel this one to run just a little bit better than it did last year. I do like that Dean Butler takes the mount for Bernell Rhone and if there was nothing here I don’t think he’d ride this race.
Race 7 4-3-9
#4 Genithelamborghini was purchased for 50K and then given a horrible name. That being said I think this one is the best of the trio of runners that Valorie Lund has entered in this MSW race. Of the nine entries, there are four first timers so this will be interesting. The 54 Beyer last out (when caught wide) is the highest in this race, which places her above the other vets and I do always like the Ramgeet sending angle.
#3 Glorious Odyssey returns to the dirt after a failed attempt routing on the turf as the favorite. Francisco Bravo adds blinkers here and that has worked for him 29% of the time. This one will be closing so maybe the blinkers can have her more involved early so that there isn’t too much work to do down the stretch. If a pace battle takes place, this one will have a shot to clean up the mess.
#9 Maria Who is a first timer breaking from post 9 who appears to be the best of newbies. Dan McFarlane trains this one who has a 378# here at the distance and that is the best in the field. Having leading jockey Loveberry aboard makes me think that the 12 works coming into this race mean that this one is ready to fire.
Race 8 1-6-8
#1 Rickshaw Express has speed, is breaking from the rail and is dropping in class. If the 9/2 ML holds up this one might have very good value in this spot. The five furlong distance means that getting to the front might be key and I expect this one to be leading as they exit the turn. Trainer Paul Pearson doesn’t run a lot of them in MN so if he’s sending this one up from Iowa then he must have victory in his mind.
#6 Drive Sandy Drive has shown speed in six furlong races, has held on and now cuts back in distance. Dean Butler will be pressuring Rickshaw Express and these two might just run away and hide. The 3-1 ML could be bet down to favoritism as the pair of 60+ Beyer #’s in the past three starts will be too intriguing for others to pass on.
#8 The Tacoosa Kid has the look of a horse that has been entered to get claimed. The Butzow’s have a decent stable of horses and appear ready to cut ties with this one despite a pair of wins at the $7500 level down in Louisiana this spring. The 2-1 ML is legit and the 70+ Beyers are the best in the field. They just fired a bullet last week and if all systems are ready to fire, this one will be dangerous.
Race 9 7-1-3
#7 Friend to Me is a shaky selection in this fairly ugly race of 7 runners. If you take all of their last two starts, the best two finishes are 3rd place finishes so if you think anything is a lock here, you are wiser than I am. Denny Velazquez has ridden this one four times so he might have a feel on what to try differently here. Who knows….
#1 Unique Gold is 10-1 on the ML and has just as good of chance as any other. This MN bred is dropping from the upper claiming levels for MN Breds down to the $6250 open level. I do like that this runner is 2 wins in 3 starts at the distance so maybe there is gold to be found with this one.
#3 Sasstalk comes out of the Joel Berndt barn and tries to route after sprinting recently, this angle has worked for Berndt 29% of the time in 31 starts. Getting Mojica on board is interesting as he tries to rejuvenate this runner who was running in 30K allowance races three starts back.
Race 10 3-5-2
#3 Majestic Pride was the Horse of the Year at CBY last year, and despite being winless in two starts this year, looks like it is the one to beat. Turf is the preferred surface but won in both dirt starts last year including a 40K stakes race. Dean Butler has the mount and in his last seven rides, has guided Majestic Pride to Beyer #’s of 85 or better in each of them. My Best Bet of the night,
#5 Conquest BigLuck E finally gets JD Acosta off of him and gets Mojica instead. That is a huge upgrade. Big E had won a pair of solid races in Arkansas and then came up here and struggled. I loved this one in his 1st two races up here this summer and igot burned badly so I’ll only use underneath this time.
#2 Aces High won the 1st race of the 2017 CBY season and has been sitting off to the side since that victory. Now returning and getting Loveberry will be interesting to see. He beat Big E in that race I just have downgraded that race based off the other dud tossed out by Big E. Eric Heitzmann has kept this one tuned up and this might end up being the top challenger.
Race 3 Early 50 cent Pick 4 6,7 with 1,3,5,6,8,9,10 with 2,3,10,11 with 5,9 $64
Race 7 Late 50 cent Pick 4 1,3,4,7,8,9 with 1,3,6,8 with ALL with 3 $84
Race 8 P3 $1 P3 1,3,6,8 with ALL with 3 $28
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