Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Thursday, July 13, 2017
After a week’s hiatus, we’re heading back north on Danonymous Racing, for some Thursday action at Canterbury Park! Canterbury’s one of the best nighttime tracks in the country, and we’re happy to have Dave Handeland (@SuperStatsDave) providing FREE picks & analysis of the ten-race card. The first race is scheduled for 6:40 PM CDT.
Take it away, Dave!
The second half of the Canterbury season kicks off with 10 races including a pair on the turf. In race 6 the pick 5 single winner jackpot has a carryover of $218K. I still believe that any sequence that sees a pair of 10-1 or more winners and without a massive favorite winning has the ability to take the thing down.
A couple of other quick notes:
- Alex Canchari is now back after breaking his hand but Dean Butler is out indefinitely after taking a bad spill.
- Jareth Loveberry and Orlando Mojica are tied at 31 wins apiece for the jockey title
- Rafael Mojica (Orlando’s brother) has joined the jockey colony
Race 1 (quarter-horses) 10-2-7
#10 Painted Socks will appreciate the shorter distance
#2 Shot of Triple Vodka hopes to complete the Olmstead exacta
#7 Synn gets leading QH jockey for owner/trainer Dean Frey
Race 2 (quarter-horses) 2-8-6
#2 Wallykazam sees Delgado jump off the 1 for this Edward Ross Hardy runner
#8 Gramma Ella just missed in a 29K stakes race, easier spot now
#6 Bbs Pyc Luckycharm lost to the 2 above and looks for revenge
Race 3 7-8-2
#7 Miss Brookside might be the best of this sketchy group 20K maiden claimers running two turns. This one has hit the board against MSW runners in the last two races and both times was a passing some runners down the lane. This will be Leslie Mawing’s 4th time riding this filly so if it doesn’t happen now, then it might never happen.
#8 Academic Bay who is 0-9 lifetime and is basically an extremely poor man’s Zenyatta. When the runners break, this girl will be left in the dust and then she’ll hang back and then start the late run. Those late runs were poorly timed and while sprinting so the stretch out along with getting Alex Canchari (who is returning from a broken hand) might add to the potential.
#2 Fair Lady Miss is dropping in class and actually was a winner back on June 4th in a 50K maiden claiming race before getting DQ’d. I’m just not sure if this one will appreciate the distance even though the breeding shows that it should the distance, past running history makes me think this one prefers sprinting.
Race 4 (turf) 3-5-11
This race is WIDE open.
#3 Tekela’s Glory showed a little speed in his only turf attempt before folding in early June. The connections tried to put him back on the turf but the race was washed off the grass so now they give it another go and the 10-1 ML is intriguing. Nik Goodwin knows the turf course well enough and will try to put this one out front.
#5 Suddenly Seymour nearly went wire to wire in his only turf start and that was at a slightly longer distance than today’s race. Andrew Ramgeet is one of the best early speed jockey’s at the track and he has been on board the last three races.
#11 Moonlight Ta Kela finally debuts after 11 published works dating back to 4/10/17. You have to respect every Mac Roberston runner and he wins at 26% with first timers. He’s using Cecily Evans here instead of Alex Canchari or Jareth Loveberry so maybe this one doesn’t have the highest ceiling but the solid works make me think a win might be possible.
Race 5 (turf) 2-6-11
#2 Tappin Vegas is my best bet of the night as he makes the 2nd turf start of his career and gets my new favorite Canterbury angle of “1st race without JD Acosta riding” who is now back out east. The upgrade to Mojica on this turf route after a a tough 2nd place showing last out versus a similar group gives me confidence that this runner is ready to fire.
#6 Honor Earned is going to be the top threat if the turf course stays firm. There is a trip of 70+ Beyer efforts down at Tampa bay this spring on the firm ground but at Canterbury this summer they’ve been washed off the turf once and and then struggled when the course was “good” last out. The only honor really ever earned by this runner is “1st runner up” which it has done 8 times in 21 starts.
#11 Cedar Sage is one of the few horses that have shown speed on the turf course but did not win. Francisco Bravo adds blinkers this time and from breaking from post 11 out of the turf chute they are going to be gunning for the front. My worry is that this one will have to work so hard that the gas tank may be empty as they hit the stretch like ii has done the past two races at 7.5 furlongs.
Race 6 5-3-10
#5 Dakotaroan Is making the 2nd start off of an 11-month layoff and might be ready to to reward us at 8-1. Valorie Lund has terrible 2nd off long layoff stats but this race appears to be short on speed and I think Andrew Ramgeet will dare the others to chase this one. This 10K claiming level for MN Breds is the lowest level that Dakotaroan has raced against so I think we can win this wide open race.
#3 Sweet Pitch is already making his 6th start at CBY this summer and has been running at a variety of class levels. This will be the lowest level attempted this summer and gets co-leading jockey Jareth Loveberry who was also on board when the career high 55 Beyer occurred two races back. Loveberry will have 1st run if Dakotaroan wilts.
#10 Hatties Jewel took 12 races to break his maiden and now has failed six times when looking for victory #2. That 2nd victory nearly took place at this same level two races back and that must’ve given the connections to try the allowance ranks where he also tried and failed versus a pretty weak group on June 24th. Don’t be afraid to use a few in here in P3’s, P4 and P5.
Race 7 5-1-4
#5 Brilliant Belle is another top pick who hopes to benefit from the “1st race post-Acosta” and can run large here. This runner is owned by the Canterbury Racing Club which usually tends to these runners being bet more in the WPS pools but maybe not as much in the P3 and P4 pools. After beating a few of these at the $7500 allowance level at this distance they tried shortening up vs 20K claimers and that didn’t work. This is a tough race.
#1 Angel Falls returns to America after a pair small stakes races in Canada. Breaking from the rail I expect that Orlando Mojica will try to establish the early pace. Has been part of the superfecta in her last eight races has run a 60+ Beyer in five of those.
#4 Miss Ocean Express was going to be my pick before I became slightly scared. Larren Delorme guided her to an allowance victory in early May and then lost to a few of these on May 26th. Since that race, all there is to show is one good workout on June 24th and now the connections drop her in for the $12.5 claiming tag. If she is healthy and ready then is dangerous.
Race 8 2-7-3
#2 Blushing Bella won a sprint on the dirt at the $12.5 claiming level two races back and then the connections decided to try routing on the turf and that didn’t work out. Now back to sprinting on the dirt and dropping down to the $6250 level with Loveberry on board gives us confidence in this 2-1 runner.
#7 Notional Star was my top pick back on June 22nd and scored a win for us after getting a beautiful trip and a career best Beyer after a brutal trip her prior race. Now she’s going to try and go back to back and if she can avoid a bounce then should easily be one of the top 2 finishers here.
#3 Street Hustler has appeared to want a little more distance that the 5.5 furlongs that she has been running at in all three races in 2017. Today she get the extra half furlong and might like it. In 13 career starts, her only two wins have come at this distance so that adds a little street cred for this one.
Race 9 3-1-4
#3 Scrumpy Town is going to be a possible solo on P3,P4 and the P5. This filly has performed really well (3rd and 2nd)in both starts this year in MSW races. This is a MN Bred that was purchased for 80K. Now she gets a group that has struggled to win along with one making her debut. Has finished just behind Xerses Ave twice and that runner just dominated a stakes race less than two weeks ago. My only concern is that the extra ½ furlong might not be ideal.
#1 Bellwood Forever debuted on June 18th and finished 4th about 10 lengths behind Scrumpy Town. Runners can make a jump their 2nd race and if this daughter of Temple City uses the experience from that race to her advantage, she might have a shot.
#4 Follow the Spiders was the meat in the Scrumpy Town/Bellwood Forever sandwich on June 18th as she finished 3rd but far out of the picture. She has finished in the top 3 in 70% of her races so the ability to be somewhat relevant is there, she just doesn’t win. Her best Beyer ever came in the last race and now with the 2nd start off of a layoff it appears like she might have a shot.
Race 10 5-7-4
#5 Drop the Gloves is 2-2 this summer on the Canterbury dirt after moving north from Tampa Bay. Maybe something has clicked for this gelding after he went from being irrelevant for the first four races in his career. Rake Farms has had a bunch of success in MN the past couple of years with stakes winners like Sky and Sea and Bourbon County so its interesting to see them grind away with this runner.
#7 Eclat at 12-1 on the ML has the appearance of a horse that could be a nice differentiator in the P4 and P5 as the Hernandez/Westerman combo wins at 17%. It seems like each time there is a big payoff in a sequence that Hernandez winning a race on a realistic but underbet horse is part of it. Eclat is 2-8 at the distance (0-12 at all other distances) so if he is going to win, its right here at 6 furlongs.
#4 Carson’s Storm is owned and trained by Luis Canchari and ridden by Patrick Canchari. They won at the $6250 level three back, then tried the Mystic Lake Mile and then tried a 20K claiming race. Now back to an easier spot he’ll look to show that the 2-1 ML isn’t that far off.
Race 3 Pick 4: 2,5,7,8 with 1,3,4,5,7,8,11 with 2 with 1,3,5,10 $56
Race 7 Pick 4: 1,3,4,5,9 with 2,7 with 1,3,4 with 1,2,4,5,7 $75 (aggressive)
Race 7 Pick 4: 1,3,4,5,9 with 2,7 with 3 with 1,2,4,5,7 $25 (conservative)