Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Thursday, August 24, 2017
We’re making our weekly trip out to Canterbury Park, in Shakopee, Minnesota, for some nighttime racing action. Canterbury’s one of the best nighttime tracks in the country, and we’re happy to have Dave Handeland (@SuperStatsDave) providing FREE picks & analysis of the final Thursday card of the 2017 season. The first race is scheduled for 6:40 PM CDT.
Take it away, Dave!
I didn’t even realize it until Tuesday but this is the final Thursday of the Canterbury season. Time flies when you are having fun I guess. Thank you to everyone who has taken the time to read, share, comment and give my Canterbury write-ups a look. A big thank you also to John and Dan for giving me the opportunity to put my picks out on there for everyone, I had fun doing this and trying to challenge myself to become better as the season progressed.
For the turf fans out there, on Saturday night, take your Travers Day winnings to Minnesota because Canterbury has 3 stakes races on the turf, highlighted by the 200K Mystic Lake Derby which appears to be a wide open 11 horse battle.
Last week I really messed up and planned for a wet track while the track ended up dry. My 0-8 result was totally diseased but I deserved it. Thursday night is supposed to be beautiful so lets try to end our Thursday night run with some winners. Good Luck.
Top Pick winners: 21/77 (27.3%)
One of Top 3 picks winning: 50/77 (64.9%)
Race 1: (turf) 5-6-3
#5 Politicallycorrect is an 8 yr old Kitten’s Joy who is 2 for 3 on the CBY turf this season. Alex Canchari takes over which is an interesting move from Mac Roberstson considering that Jareth Loveberry was aboard in each start this summer. The distance might be a little short for what this one prefers but I just think that means that Alex will strike early. The turf victory over Plenty of Sun is impressive. BEST BET/Solo
#6 Sweet Stuff has one chance to win this and it is GO GO GO! Quincy Hamilton will try to steal this race from the gate and its up to Canchari to keep Sweet Stuff within striking distance. His best pair of races this year have been from about this distance.
#3 Pistone Steel was 4-8 as a 3 year old and is 0-5 this season for Robertino Diordoro. The Steel is melting. This is only the 2ndtry on the turf and the previous turf attempt was a poor showing and resulted in a career low Beyer #. Dangerous but use at your own risk.
Race 2: (turf ) 6-4-1
#6 Velvet Sami has some competitive 20K claiming races at CBY to start the season, then shipped to Arlington Park for an allowance race and then came back to drop into a 12.5K claimer where she ran 2nd and is now back for more. The previous 2 races were washed off the turf so with some dry weather expected, Sami could stand a big chance at 9/2. Has 5 straight races with increased Beyer #’s.
#4 Datt Town was my top pick a few weeks ago and nearly went wire to wire while being bet down to 5-1 and getting nailed at the wire in a loss that still stings. Izzy Hernandez is back and will likely be part of an early speed duel with a couple of others in this fairly wide open affair.
#1 Noon went off at 5-1 versus a few of these last time out and seemed to enjoy running right in the middle of them. She wanted to beat a few but didn’t want to beat a lot and just plugged away in the middle all race. She hasn’t won in six starts in 2017 and all running lines look the same and is littered with being in 4th place at too many calls to be a big time win threat.
Race 3: (turf) 1-9-2
#1 Herbie looks to be another of the MN Bred turf runners to have success versus open company in the turf route for claimers. Orlando Mojica reappears and that is a good sign for this 6-1 Mac Robertson gelding. We’ve seen Mac send out similar MN Bred runners who win from between the 4-1 to 8-1 range and this fits the profile.
#9 Perfect Karma is nearly identical to Herbie except Quincy Hamilton is aboard. Another Mac runner that is a MN Bred in this race and if he is entering a pair, then he’s thinking one can win and the other should be close to it. This runner won versus slightly weaker earlier this summer and just won a nice allowance race on Aug 4th. Has never finished out of the money in 5 CBY turf races with three of those being wins.
#2 Handy Candy won a 30K open allowance race on Aug 5th and is now in for 16K. If the Mac horses are not on their “A” game then this guy is the main threat. Has been part of the trifecta in all five CBY races this year versus some good competition.
Race 4: 4-7-6
#4 Little Lutefisk because someone has to win this race. This is an uninspiring group of 10K MN Bred maiden claimers. This little filly debuted at the 30K level 2 weeks ago and took a lot of money and and “rewarded” those believers with a 6th place finish. Miguel Silva’s 0-17 mark with 2nd start maidens doesn’t inspire confidence but maybe Leslie Mawing can bring out the best of this Scandinavian.
#7 Been Busy started off her career with three straight 0’s in the running line but then showed some early speed last time out before fading at 6.5 furlongs. If Nik Goodwin can find that same speed in this 5.5 furlong dirt dash then maybe this filly will just stay busy and run free.
#6 Talkin N Textin is 3-2 on the ML and I’m sure there will be some who try to single this one based on that. This MN bred was dropping down the MC ladder in Iowa and last time out was at the 6250 level finishing 8 lengths behind the winner. Has increased her Beyer #’s in all three lifetime races but I would be scared about being super confident.
Race 5: 6-8-7
#6 City Spirit is one of 4 entries in this race purchased during the 2016 Keeneland September sale. Dan McFarlane trains this one and there are a 4 bullet workouts in the last 3.5 months as they have been prepping for this 2 yr old debut including two from the gate. I fully expect Nik Goodwin to send this one and he has a good feel for 2 yr old runners.
#8 Tahoe Dream is 60K purchase debuting for Mac. The interesting thing here is that he calls on Cecily Evans instead of Canchari or Loveberry which leads me to believe that this one might not be as good as the purchase price. The workouts are alright but not as good as City Spirit’s.
#7 Zoey’s My Girl is trained and owned by 24% trainer Nevada Litfin and makes her debut with a pair of bullet works from the gate in the past three weeks. Litfin is 0-15 with 2 yr olds but whenever a trainer owns and trains a debut horse like this it is worth giving her a 2nd look.
Race 6: 6-7-4
#6 Southern Steam was terrible as a 3 yr old maiden claimer in MN, made her 4 yr old debut in July and then was sent to Iowa to give it a shot down there versus open MSW’s. I have no reason why they made that trip, a total waste of shipping $$. Now she returns here, drops to the 10K level and gives it a go at 12-1. Hoping to catch a price here.
#7 Show debuted on June 9th at 2-1 in a MSW race and only lost by 19 lengths. After that Mac tried sprinting on the turf vs open company and only lost by 20 lengths. Now plummeting and getting Alex Canchari makes her still a little interesting. If was truly a lost cause I think Alex would sit this one out.
#4 Princess Sunrise will take money, jump out to the lead and then hit the turn and slow down to get a better look at the Buck Night crowd and take in the moment. But won’t win. My group made a mistake and solo’d her when chasing the jackpot P5. Never again.
Race 7: 9-1-5
#9 Omaha Hurry sees the Canchari/Robertson combo. I was leery of this runner but he owned by Joe Novogratz who trails the Sampson’s by 2 wins for the owner’s wins title. This makes the drop from the 20K claiming ranks to the 6250 make some sense. They are daring someone to claim while trying to get another win. By no means a lock but he did have one really competitive 2ndplace finish at Oaklawn at the 15K level this spring.
#1 Stagecoach Stop will be the winner if Omaha Hurry struggles. In his past 3 races, this guy has races in a stakes race at Gulfstream Park, in a 20K claiming race at Santa Anita and a 6250 claimer at CBY. Hmmm. Hopefully they are earning frequent flyer miles. Last time out, Andrew Ramgeet was in a speed duel from the outside at 6.5 furlongs before losing late. Shorterning up and breaking from the rail should help the chances.
#4 Amazing Love will try to add some pizzazz into the potential P4 will pays for Izzyy Hernandez and Miguel Silva. Last year at this time this one was breaking his maiden at Del Mar. Now he’s ready to be purchased for 6250. Hmmmmm. Since that win he has only crashed the trifecta once but this is by far the easiest race entered since that time.
Race 8 2-3-4
#2 Bourbon Cowboy has been running versus better competition this summer across the Midwest and now shows up in Minnesota looking for a win for Michele Boyce. Appears to be in good form and the 93 Beyer # last race is pretty impressive in this 25K OC race. Has been closing in 6 furlong races and now gets and extra ½ furlong which should help the cause. Let’s see if we can end with a winner.
#3 JP of Galilee has been part of the exacta in all 3 starts on the CBY dirt this summer and Jareth Loveberry will try to make it the 2nd win of the meet for this guy. The last time Loveberry was aboard resulted in a victory so they will try to repeat history here. Has been racing in two turn races and might enjoy the cutback here.
#4 Superstar Leo is my father in law’s favorite horse due to sharing the same name along with being superstars (brownie points right there). It seems like this one has regressed a little this summer after a really sharp 2016 season. The last race wasn’t that great on July 30th and there have been no published works since so that adds some worry.
R1 P4: 5 with 1,2,4,6,8,9 with 1,2,4,7,9,12 with 2,4,6,7 $64
R5 P5: 6 with 1,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 1,4,6,9 with 1,2,3,4 $56
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