Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Thursday, August 17, 2017
We’re making our weekly trip out to Canterbury Park, in Shakopee, Minnesota, for some nighttime racing action. Canterbury’s one of the best nighttime tracks in the country, and we’re happy to have Dave Handeland (@SuperStatsDave) providing FREE picks & analysis of the nine-race card. The first race is scheduled for 6:40 PM CDT.
Take it away, Dave!
Maybe the week off helped us as last week we returned with 6 top pick winners and 9 listed winners of the ten races on the card. Last week was EXTREMELY chalky as the late P4 paid just over $7 (which was higher than on Friday night when the late P4 paid just over $6).
After some empty threats of rain in the previous few weeks, this week the Twin Cities has been getting soaked and it rained all Wednesday evening. My handicapping below is based off the races coming off the turf and the track being wet, I just see zero chance of racing on the turf.
Top Pick winners: 21/69 (30.4%)
One of Top 3 picks winning: 45/69 (65.2%)
Race 1: (QH’s)
#2 Lithe will enjoy the shorter distance, wet track and avoiding Kowboy Jim
#3 Write Your Story won his last race as a 3/5 fave. Very possible to repeat
#6 Better Dig Two will be outside and trying to start well after blowing the start last race
Race 2: (turf but assuming it comes off the turf) 1-5-2
#1 Red Hot Cherry was going to be the top pick on the turf and will stay that way on an off track. This is a pretty weak 12.5K claiming group. This runner prefers the turf but has finished in the $ in both dirt starts in her lifetime. Leading jockey Orlando Mojica is 1/1 aboard this one and will stalk and pounce.
#5 Valid Cause had some success last summer at CBY and then has been up and down this year in Iowa. Terry Thompson makes the trip up as well oh a horse that he’s ridden a few times in the past, including a win on June 12th.
#2 Betyar has some mixed signals attached. She was 2/2 last summer and then shut down before returning after a 10-month layoff and firing a dud. After that dud, it is now 7 weeks later she returns again. The talent was there last year and if that returns then she can contend but I just don’t know.
Race 3: (turf but assuming it comes off the turf) 4-3-2
#4 Neymar might be the slight best of a sketchy group of maiden claimers. In 4 career races he has shown the ability to close twice and the dirt form is higher than anything else here. Denny Velazquez gets the mount and maybe the change to Denny from Lori Keith might do the trick.
#3 Touchem All Julius debuted at 19-1 in a MSW race vs an impressive winner and didn’t run a lick. With the 1st race jitters out of the way, maybe in try #2 this one will be ready.
#2 Son of So ran a pair of non competitive turf races and then showed some signs of life when trying the turf. Now likely back onto the dirt, will the the return to mud allow him to build off the last effort or will we see that the previous dirt tries were really who this runner is.
Race 4: (turf but assuming it comes off the turf) 5-7-10
#5 Broken Key has been running versus some solid competition and this might be an easier race and especially after the scratches are announced. He has win on a good track and a solid Tomlinson # so we think he has a shot with Nik Goodwin aboard.
#7 Chicory Blue is from leading trainer Mac Robertson’s barn and would be making his wet track debut. He’s a competitive sort but hasn’t won in his last 12 versus some grinders down at Fairgrounds and in Chicago. The Tomlinson # of 361 gives some hope.
#10 Tap the Admiral might be dangerous if making the field. He has a win in the slop back in 2016 and ran a solid race on an off track back on April 30th.
Race 5: 5-3-8
#5 Tee Tee won on a muddy track and was claimed for $7500 back in January down at Oaklawn and now is in for 4K versus much weaker. He won on a dry track in his last race after being terrible on a turf in June. Alex Canchari has 6 wins in 13 starts for Nevada Litfin so they inspire some confidence.
#3 Doug is one of the most basic names in racing and this durable 11 year old with 75 career starts and 20 wins just keeps at it. Showed speed last out and three races back was even entered in a 20K stakes race in Nebraska. Who knows.
#8 Jebias has three wins and a pair of 2nd place finishes in six career wet track starts. He’s struggled in 2017 with only 1 top three finish in seven starts this year. Maybe the wet track excites this guy.
Race 6: 2-7-1
#2 Tequilla Ley showed promise last summer and is now chasing the elusive worm at the 6250 MC level. His best career race came on a wet track earlier this summer in a MSW event. Its now or never.
#7 Moonlight Ta Kela might not have much value at 2-1 but Jareth Loveberry was aboard the improved 3rd place effort last race out. Robertson adds blinkers and is 27% with that angle.
#1 Two Under adds blinkers, has the best Tomlinson # of 401 and is trying dirt for the 1st time. Why not?
Race 7: 9-1-5
#9 Kiss My Hennessy has a solid wet rating and has backed it up with a win and 2nd out of three starts on a wet track. Quincy Hamilton will have the outside path and try to avoid getting splashed before pouncing down the stretch.
#1 The Tacoosa Kid has been the post time favorite in three straight races and has ZERO wins to show for it. This son of Sidney’s Candy might like the wet track and the Canchari/Robertson connection gives us some confidence.
#5 Tripmeister has three wins versus weaker opponents in Nebraska but three straight wins is still impressive. You can’t let this one surprise you with that form.
Race 8: 5-4-2
#5 Solve was taking on the likes of Neck n’ Neck and Way Striking before dominating his one and only start at CBY in which he won by 5 lengths. Despite a Tomlinson # of 431, he hasn’t had a ton of success with only a second place finish in 4 starts on a wet track. Orlando Mojica looks to have his photo taken with Robertino Diodoro.
#4 Sky Defence is coming off back to back to back wins down in Iowa. Not shabby. Alex Canchari gets the mount and even though there isn’t much of a wet track resume we’ll take a shot.
#2 Malibu Pro will likely be the favorite if he stays in but I have a feeling that he scratches out of this spot. If he stays in, he’ll look to build off two recent wins but I’m just not that he wants a wet track.
Race 9: 5-1-6
#5 Permit to Carry won on a sloppy track vs 15K claimers at Lone Star and now looks for his 2nd straight wins at the 6250 level. The 70 Beyer # last out was a career high so there is a possible bounce factor in play.
#1 Carlsbad Mountain will be the early speed as Orlando Mojica will look to continue what could be a good night of racing for him. This is a much easier field than he has faced.
#6 Sky City has found his groove up in MN after a struggle down in FL. Will be attempting to push Carlsbad Mountain around the track.
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