Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Thursday, August 10, 2017
After a week’s hiatus, we’re back at Canterbury Park for some nighttime racing action. Canterbury’s one of the best nighttime tracks in the country, and we’re happy to have Dave Handeland (@SuperStatsDave) providing FREE picks & analysis of the ten-race card. The first race is scheduled for 6:40 PM CDT.
Take it away, Dave!
After a week off due some weather terror that proved once again that you should never trust the forecast, we are back to making selections. To clarify….the week off was not a suspension from the editors for the embarrassing 1-10 selections back on July 27th. I’m sorry.
Anyways, tonight’s card is very interesting and my favorite stat of the card is that in the final pick 4 of the night, the runners in races 8 thru 10 are a combined 0-118 in their lives. WOW. Not a lot to latch on to there for confidence but that doesn’t stop my best bet of the night from appearing in that sequence.
Once again we are under a rain watch, and it did rain on Wednesday, so please check back later in the day and I’ll also be posting updates via Twitter. Good luck.
Top Pick winners: 15/59 (25.4%)
One of Top 3 picks winning: 36/59 (61%)
Race 1: (QH’s) 7-5-3
#7 Sweetarts will be flying on the outside for Oscar Delgado (trainer Shane Miller is 0-40 though)
#5 Fantastic Curves will be up front early but has tendency to slow up and lose
#3 Polar Express has Nik Goodwin aboard and is making 2nd start of the summer.
Race 2: (QH’s) 6-1-7
#6 Putinical has no known Russian ties but had Goodwin/Hybsha ties and they win 24% of the time
#1 Jess Blue by Ya will like the 400 yd distance and will be closing late
#7 Stelthy made her summer debut vs stakes competition and nearly won. Drops to try and win
Race 3: (turf) 5-7-1
#5 Derby Dance has been closing in all three races that Orlando Mojica has been aboard but this time has added distance helping her cause. She has finished 2nd in all three turf starts this summer and there are no world beaters in this MSW turf race. The tried to show speed last time out which almost worked but I assume they will try to come from behind here.
#7 Tiz the Storm will be one of the two speed horses in this seven horse race. The jockey upgrade to Jareth Loveberry helps the cause despite Loveberry being a little more comfortable on the dirt. The additional distance will not help this one but if by chance she becomes the only speed then maybe she’ll just keep going.
#1 Teaspoon tried becoming a front runner last race and missed the top spot by a few tablespoons. Chad Lindsay hops on and he has had the ability to bring in a few bombers on the CBY turf and the 10-1 ML along with the speed component give this one some intrigue.
Race 4: (turf) 1-3-8
#1 Aces High will be making his 2nd start on the turf after a respectable try last time out in his turf debut. Alex Canchari rode this one to a victory on opening day but has not been aboard since but does return now. Breaking from the rail Canchari is going to have to try and send as there is some speed in this race. Is now in for the 25K tag but connections must be not that concerned. If the race comes off the grass, this one could be the favorite.
#3 Red Zone is one of two Larry Sterling entries in here which is interesting because one is the rabbit and the other is the closer. This guy is the closer. Sterling doesn’t have a lot of horses in his stable so sending out a pair in the same race sure gives the feeling that one of them is extremely live and maybe both are. Orlando Mojica found himself stuck last time on this one and will look to correct that error.
#8 Teddy Time is coming off of back to back victories vs MN Breds including winning the 50K Blairs Cove Stakes in impressive come from behind fashion. This is a step up but he ran against some quality open claimers last summer and didn’t get embarrassed. Quincy Hamilton is 2-2 on Teddy so probably needs to be used.
Race 5: 2-4-5
#2 Victory Ice has no excuses today after failing as the favorite last time out vs a field even weaker than this group of 10K MN Bred maiden claimers. Not the quickest from the break in the world but in her last race she limped out of the gate and although she finished strong down the stretch it was much too late. Nik Goodwin will hope to close on this weak field.
#4 She’s a Genius has improved her finishing position in each of her 4 races this year but the 0-16 lifetime mark doesn’t inspire a plethora of confidence. Charles Lopez stays aboard as he looks for his 1st win at CBY this summer.
#5 Dakota Mar Lou is making her 3rd career start and has never been within five lengths of the lead after the 1st call, with both of those races being at this same level. Jareth Loveberry stays on which is a good sign but I’m just not sure that this filly wants to every really be involved.
Race 6: 1-8-2
#1 Lasoeurcadecherri stretches out to two turns for the 1st time on dirt, although she has tried routing once on the grass. There are no great runners in the MN Bred Allowance race and her closing running style might like the additional distance as she has closed in all three career wins while sprinting and is 3 for 4 on the CBY dirt this summer. The 6-1 might keep the odds fair.
#8 Sedona Sky is a 10-1 runner who beat a few decent MN Bred in a 20K claiming race two months ago then took 7 weeks off before returning on July 27th and struggling which is a little scary. We’ll see what version shows up today.
#2 Seynatawee drops back into allowance race after a pair of stakes races in which she appeared well over her head (and ran like it). She falls into a much better spot here and gets Orlando Mojica back on board which is a positive. This nibbler at some point is going to return to have her photo taken.
Race 7: 5-7-2
#5 Fair Lady Miss drops to the 10K MC level for MN Breds and takes on the easiest group of her 10 race career as she continues her search for her 1st legal victory after being DQ’d out of the top spot earlier this summer at the 50K MC level. The connections had to have much higher hopes for this one but this seems like it has to be a win. She owns the best two Beyer #’s in the field which is interesting because this field is a combined 0-47 lifetime. BEST BET
#7 Dot’s Vow has registered Beyer #’s larger than zero three times this year. Sadly those three are a much higher # than any other of the remaining runners. Izzy Hernandez has a knack for crashing the podium and could get a minor award here.
#2 Tahkodha Dutchess plummets down from the MSW races into a spot here where she has a teeny little chance. In her only attempt at this level this year she did manage a 2nd place finish. Something to build on at least.
Race 8: 4-1-6
#4 Bubble Time has been competitive in these lower level maiden claiming races and then tried to take on MSW on the grass going long and lost by 26 lengths. The turf to dirt angle for Joel Berndt works 27% of the time so we have that in our corner. She has shown speed in all of her CBY dirt races this year and maybe this time will get brave and not stop.
#1 Fiesty Tomboy has been wrecking P3’s and P4’s thru three CBY races this summer as the betting public has had high hopes for this runner after beginning his career at Keeneland and Churchill Downs. She has been the favorite in two of her three races and lost by over five lengths in each of those races. Some horses just have the appearance of decent but not a winner and this one fits right into that. This field is a combined 0-57. Yikes.
#6 Tizz Fizz will get Nik Goodwin aboard and maybe the jockey change will liven this one up. The added distance will not be kind to this one but maybe there will be some spunk. The winner of the race back on June 24th (Vallestina) came back to win a race at Del Mar on Wednesday.
Race 9: 4-6-3
#4 Stacy’s Luck is making her CBY debut and comes from the Joe Sharp bar that is 5-18 and is ITM 72% of the time this summer at the track. The additions of Orlando Mojica and the 1st time Lasix give this one a real shot of confidence in her 2nd career race. She did show early speed in her debut although the eventual winner’s final time was pretty slow for the distance. Timid choice.
#6 Whatsthebigdeal has tried the MSW ranks a few times, then tried the 50K MC ranks and now drops to 30K MC. Hmmmmm. Finally showed some early speed last race but showed off the E-brake mid-stretch, I don’t understand the 4/5 ML odds and although could be the winner, that seems like heartbreak waiting to happen as the Bethke/Velazquez pairing is 0-12.
#3 Little Lutefisk will take money from the Scandanavians. There have been 11 works leading into this debut but not have been earth shattering. Not sure when her running partner Big Lefse will be debuting.
Race 10: 3-2-4
#3 Ta Kela Warning has never lost in two career races but now steps up to take on Allowance runners after beating 10K MC’ers and 10K claimers in her 1st two races. The connections have set the bar low and this one has flew right over the bar and has been at least 4 lengths ahead of her competition midway down the stretch. Much tougher task here but I’m finally hopping on the bandwagon.
#2 US Express has finished in the money in all 4 starts this summer and returns to the dirt after a decent turf effort. Karl Broberg doesn’t have the most runners at CBY but he does win at 17% and does win at 25% on horses returning from 31-60 day breaks. Hugo Sanchez gets the ride here like he did on the recent grass effort. Maybe he learned something about this filly.
#4 Smoken Danni must’ve enticed Alex Canchari enough back on July 29th that Alex chooses this one over US Express who he has ridden to a pair of victories on this summer. From the looks of it, US Express is the better of the two runners so it is interesting. Canchari will try to sit behind the front runners and pounce down the stretch like he did in the finale last Sunday.
Race 3 Pick 4: 1,457 with 1348910 with 2 with 12358 $60
Race 7 Pick 4: 5 with 13468 with 3456 with 2345 $40
Race 7 .50 cent trifecta 5 with all with all $21
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.