Breeders’ Cup Previews and Picks: 14 Hands Winery Juvenile Fillies, By Brett Strong

Breeders’ Cup Race Previews and Picks

14 Hands Winery Juvenile Fillies

By Brett Strong

 

Recent Winners:

2015 – Songbird

2014 – Take Charge Brandi

2013 – Ria Antonia

2012 – Beholder

The Race

There are some big names on that list of previous winners, including the two headliners in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Longines Distaff. We can also expect an interesting edition of the 14 Hands Winery Juvenile Fillies race this year.

Trainer Bob Baffert, as usual, has a couple nice fillies in. I think he’ll utilize one as a rabbit and, as crazy as this may sound, could even win as the rabbit. Noted and Quoted is the one Baffert seems to like best but American Gal is fast. Mike Smith is such a big-money rider on big days out here.Trying to win it on the front-end for as long as he can isn’t a terrible idea. Along with Noted and Quoted, Sweet Loretta, Yellow Agate and Valadorna will look to sit just off a hopefully hot pace and make moves at the far turn.  Dancing Rags and With Honors will compete for the lead with American Gal and I think Dancing Rags might be the better of the two.

Other runners will need to step up pretty big to win but, in this style of race, that could happen. I’m not a huge fan of the jockey change on Colorful Charades but drawing the rail could help.  Champagne Room and Mario Gutierrez just don’t have the horse to beat these. Daddy’s Lil Darling, I think, is hampered by the post draw and I’m not wild on Lanerie in this spot. As you could see in the PP’s, Jamyson N Ginger freaked on a sloppy track against lesser so I don’t think a repeat win is in the cards. I would probably not even play JNG in any trifecta.

The Selections

American Gal (#12): Shocker. I think speed wins this race. Mike Smith steals this one.  I like the works, the distance shouldn’t be an issue and this filly holds fastest speed figure in the field. Post draw will only help her get to the lead and stay out of trouble while doing it. Price should be pretty solid.

Sweet Loretta (#5): Trainer Todd Pletcher doesn’t have the best record in Breeders’ Cup races but a G3 and G1 winner from Saratoga should be respected.  Castellano wins races and he’ll make sure that Sweet Loretta is forwardly-placed enough to make a solid move around the turn.  Don’t take less than 5-1 on this one.

Noted and Quoted (#10): She will likely go off as the favorite and will run a good race but I couldn’t play straight up because the price is too low for the field.  Will include on all exotic bets but for a straight win bet, I like a little bigger price.  Bejarano stresses me out when I watch him and you never know what you’ll get.  He will have this one in the mix down the stretch but it might be too late.

image-3Brett Strong is a Kentucky guy through and through but he has been a regular contributor on Danonymous Racing. He works as general manager at a Men’s Warhorse in Lexington, not far from his home track of Keeneland. In the fall, you can find Brett’s picks and analysis at Keeneland, which is where he developed his passion for racing. It was also the site of his biggest score to date, a $17,000 Pick-4. You can catch Brett’s work on the site on most Sundays.

You can follow Brett on Twitter @Storiesdub.

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