Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, October 8, 2017
A great day of racing action at Belmont Park is on tap this afternoon. Two grade 1 stakes are on the schedule: the Frizette Stakes, for two-year-old fillies, and the Flower Bowl, for older females on the grass.
As usual, Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) will be providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action every Sunday. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter, for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Good luck to everyone following along!
We had a great week last Sunday, hitting with our top pick in 5 of the 9 races. Let’s see if we can have a replay of that performance this week. Let’s stay hot. Let’s take some chances. Let’s cash some tickets. Let’s get ‘em. Make sure to follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. I often make changes to picks based on surface and the betting board especially on a day like today where Mother Nature will have an impact.
Pick 5 ticket – (will be posted on twitter after scratches)
Race 1- 7-3-1a (Turf Only)
4-5-3 (Dirt Only)
Race 2- 5-1-4 (Turf Only)
8-4-5 (Dirt Only)
Race 3- 4-6-5
#4- Sir Bond – I really like this horse in this spot. I can make a legitimate excuse in 6 of his last 7 races and now gets back to the distance he really wants to run. Last race he was caught wide throughout the duration of the entire race and still closed nicely into a slow pace. Prior to that he just missed winning; again closing into a very slow pace at 6F. Three back, he has no chance on a speed biased track. I believe with a fair track (we won’t know since this is the first dirt race) and the additional furlong, he is the horse to beat.
#6- Will Did It- He exits the same race as my top pick that came on a speed biased track. He had no shot that day and also has a few excuses in his past races including one where his jockey lost the whip. He has a ton of back class and has had some success on this race track. His races this time last year would crush these.
#5- No Hiding Place- I generally do not like to endorse horses Linda Rice claims and does not move up in class but siblings of Munnings usually are upgraded over wet surfaces. Look for this one to round out the Super with #2 At Guard who should both be on the front end and going first off the claim for top barns.
Race 4- 3-8-4
#3- Lezendary- She will going 2nd time out for the Rudy Rodriguez barn which is not his greatest angle (2 for 71). But she exits a race where the winner, Purrfect Miss is a top contender in the Frizette later in the card. First time out she only lost to the potential Stakes winner by 3 lengths despite getting badly bumped at the start and having to race wide throughout the race. Rudy is only 3 for 41 on this meet, but we did hit nicely on one of those with a 9-1 shot. Maybe we can get Rudy going.
#8- Beyond Grace- This daughter of Uncle Mo is a half to Mighty Mo who earned over 100k last year in multiple stakes races. Hard to ignore anything from the Chad Brown barn including ones that go for 1.5 Million at sale.
#4- Redhairdon’tcare – It is not often you see a horse sell for 57x the sire fee but that is the case with this first time starter for Anthony Dutrow. This daughter of Freisan Fire has plenty of winners in the bloodlines and should be a fair price considering Dutrow’s poor numbers first time out (1 for 35).
Race 5- 4-3-6 (Turf Only)
6-4-5 (Dirt Only)
Race 6- 5-13-3 (Turf Only)
Entry-13-10 (Dirt Only)
Race 7- 4-6-10
#4- Separationofpowers – She is simply the horse to beat in the Grade 1 Frizette and earn a trip to the Breeders Cup. First time out she won impressively despite breaking from the 1 post. 2nd time out she ended up on the wrong end of an extreme biased track and still managed to hold on for 3rd when she had every right to be last. I expect her to be on the engine and if the wet surface has been kind to speed early in the card, this could be your single in the late pick 4.
#6- Purrfect Miss- I will admit this is more of a homer pick. She is part owned by Twitter fan favorite @sjhorsereport (if you aren’t following him, you just do not like horses and winning) and they have been pointing her to this spot. She looked really good beating a deep group last time out and the wet surface should upgrade her.
#10- Critique – You can’t leave Pletcher off any tickets in a Grade 1 2YO race. This daughter of Midnight Lute looked like an absolute freak beating a suspect group by 16 lengths. She got some moisture that day so she clearly likes the wet stuff.
Race 8- 4-1-3
#4- Zhukova – She will be my stone cold single on every ticket. Her performance in the Man O’War on this track was special. When you can beat a horse like Graded Stakes winner Sadler’s Joy by 8 lengths then you know you have a good thing. I hope all the money goes on Grand Jete because Zhukova is much the one to beat. The soft turf course should make it a synch.
#1- Grand Jete- She has done nothing wrong in her 4 career starts in the US including a Grade 3 win and just losing to Dacita last time out in the Grade 1 BeverlyD stakes. She has yet to run on a soft US turf course so it will be interesting to see how this horse from Green Bay (inside joke) will perform.
#3- Dacita- You can make an argument that this is the most talented filly in the race after winning the Beverly D last time out. She has no shot in catching Hawksmoor in back to back races after setting a snail pace prior to the Beverly D. She is 2 heads away from being 5 for her last 6 against the top horses in her division. Do not dismiss.
Race 9- 1-10-11 (Turf only)
6-8-9 (Dirt only)
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