Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, October 15, 2017
A great day of racing action at Belmont Park is on tap this afternoon. The feature is the Matron Stakes, for two-year-old fillies.
As usual, Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) will be providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action every Sunday. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Good luck to everyone following along!
We are really starting to hit our stride of late (nothing like Jason Perry of late). Let’s take some chances. Let’s cash some tickets. Let’s get ‘em. Make sure to follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. I often make changes to picks based on surface and the betting board especially on a day like today where Mother Nature will have an impact.
Conservative Pick 5 Ticket – 4,8 / 4,7 / 2,3,5 / 6 / 7,9,10 = $18
Aggressive Pick 5 Ticket- 4,6,8 / 4,7 / 2,3,5 / 4,6,7,8,9 / 7,9,10 = $135
Race 1- 4-8-6
#4- Love that Jazz- This is probably a sucker play but I can’t resist the 8-1 ML price that we are going to get with this horse. Two back he went off at 8/5 at this level and had no chance after almost falling to his face at the break and still managing to finish third. Prior to that race, he won at this level and a similar performance would put him in the winner’s circle. He is 2 for 4 on this track and always gives you a good race as evidenced by hitting the board in 9 of his 15 races. He is not your likeliest winner but he is the best price play.
#8- Marriedtothemusic- This is your most likely winner and will be no more than even money come post time. He has run the fastest races and suits up for very strong connections. However, there are a few question marks which is why I can’t fully endorse on top:
- He just won a 40k race in open company and now being dropped to the 25k State-bred company.
- He is a horse that seems to want the lead in order to win and the outside post and other speed might make his job difficult
- Lack of value
#6- West Hills Giant – He should get enough speed to close into which will help and he usually cashes a check but rarely likes to win races. Hard to take 1 for 25 horses on dirt on top. Use only the top 2 choices to continue in the Pick 5
Race 2- 4-7-8
#4- China Rider- In case you can’t tell by my first two picks, I am really trying to look for prices today. I landed on this 10-1 shot once again based on value. Compare this horse to the ML favorite. She has more experience and comes out of the same race where she finished on par with the favorite despite getting a horrific trip. Why take 2-1 on the favorite when you can get 10-1 on this horse? If you need another excuse, look at who this horse has run against. Her first turn on the try she finished 4th behind all next out winners and stake winners La Coronel, New Money Honey and Starr Bear. Well worth the 10-1 shot.
#7- Electric- It is really hard to knock this horse when Linda Rice rarely has them cranked out 1st time out and she ran an impressive 3rd at almost 20-1. Jose Lezcano picked this horse over the other Linda Rice horse and Linda Rice is known for having them ready 2nd time out. Key the top two picks to cash a nice ticket.
#8- Equilaityforall- Looks to be competitive on paper but much rather the other Linda horse.
Race 3- 3-2-5
#3- Happy Like a Fool – Named after me when I am alive to “all” in the last leg of a Pick 5. My original top pick was the 2 until I saw that Ward scratched out of a 150K stakes race on Saturday in order to enter here. That angle alone is usually one that raises an eyebrow.
#2- Take Charge Paula- I was close to putting this one on top. Ignore her last effort in where she had trouble at the gate and was routing. This filly wants to go fast and wants to go one turn. She gets back to what she likes to do and I expect a decent showing on the cutback.
#5- Honey Graeme – I am actually not a huge fan of this horse after her lone win came on a huge speed biased track. I also tend to stay away from speed horses with Irad in the saddle. However, if Irad tries to rate from the outside post, he might find himself in a great situation around the turn.
Race 4- 6-7-4
#6- Elenathena – I bet her first time out and I am still waiting for her to finish. But there were a few excuses that day that will allow me to cross that race out. The race came in the slop which the horse clearly did not like and is not bred to enjoy. She also faced Caledonia Road and Mockery who have turned into 2 decent horses. Trainer Richard Violette usually has them ready first time out, but if you draw a line through that race, this horse should be live at her 6-1 ML odds.
#7- Right On- It hurts putting a Bruce Brown horse in my top 3 but looking at this race, what choice to do I have. She has the most experience and excuses in each race facing much tougher horses with rough starts. She is also the only horse who has run to show any early speed……but it is Bruce Brown.
#4- Toni Rox- She has the look of a possible live longshot. Carlos Martin horses usually do not take money first time out but that is exactly what happened when she finished a distant 3rd. She didn’t get the greatest ride that day going 4 wide in a 5 horse race so you can expect an improvement 2nd time out.
Race 5- 7-9-10
#7- Dynamic War – In a race that looks wide open, I have to take a price. Why not this 10-1 ML price who should be alone on the lead in a turf race which is usually a good recipe on this circuit. The cutback in distance should only help a horse who will be gasping for air as she nears the finish line for a barn that is not known for success on the green. Spread deep in this race.
#9- Reckless Humor- She looks like a main player after missing by less than a length last time out despite walking out of the gate. She was still able to close into a slow pace so a repeat of that effort with a clean break will be tough to beat.
#10- Avery Maeve- I kinda owe this one some love after cashing nicely when she broke her maiden at 16-1. I actually went back to read my write-up that day for all times sake. She should be close to my top pick and if she can’t get the distance he is likely to capitalize and try to beat my 2nd pick to the finish line.
Pick 4 Ticket – 4,9,13,14 / 1,2,6,7 / 2 / 1,2,4,6,12 = $40
Race 6- ???
It is tough to handicap a race when the top contenders are also eligibles. Instead I will post my picks via twitter after scratches. In the mean time, here are a few tidbits among the key contenders:
#4- My Mr. Wonderful – This gelding has a very similar story to my top pick in race 4. She has gone out twice with legitimate excuses in both. She should be on the engine and sometimes that is all you need in a wide open MSW for 2yos.
#5- Dig That Mine- 20-1 on this horse is crazy and is a great horse to key underneath. Trainer Steve Klesaris hits at a 33% on horses going out for the 2nd time and this one clearly raced greenly throughout. Expect an improvement from that race despite the low percentage jockey.
#7- Candy Zip- Exits the same race as the 9 horse where they took similar money. That day this horse lost the rider so this would technically be his first time out. Larry Rivelli can have them ready. Watch the board on this one!
#9- New York Hero- As mentioned earlier, Linda Rice is unreal with horses 2nd time out and this horse was really mowing them down late first time out. Probably the horse to beat in a wide open race.
#10- Danny California- Attracts Johnny V with really fast workouts.
#13- Smokin Platnium- This 2yo colt will be very dangerous if coming off the also-eligible list. When you can run with the likes of Aveenu Machanu who is now a Graded Stakes winner, it will make you tough to beat in this field.
#14- San Juan San Diego- A very interesting first time starter for Ron Moquett. Is a half to Musket Man.
Race 7- 2-7-1
#2- New York Song- It is possible to have a New York / New York Double with the 6th and 7th race winners. If that happens it would be better than that silly NY / NY promotion NYRA has with Yonkers. He exits the same race as Air Vice Marshall but had trouble at the start of that race. With a clear trip he should make noise late in a race that appears to have enough speed on paper for the closers to take advantage.
#7- Air Vice Marshall- I already submitted my divorce papers on this horse last time out. In fact I think I have lost on this horse the last 4 times out so it is probably a lock that he wins today since I won’t endorse for trip number 5.
#1- Runaway Posse- He is another closer who should benefit from the early pace in the race and the majority of his best races is when breaking from the 1-hole.
Race 8- 2-3-7
#2- Nobody Move- This may actually be a single for me at the ridiculous 6-1 ML odds. He is a perfect 9 for 9 ITM running at this track and has speed figures that fit here. He may want a bit more ground but any horse that can finish 2nd to Bustin It, one of the greatest sprinters in the history of NY racing, should be able to catch Luzzi and the speed
#3- Mr. Buff- Not often you will find me putting Bruce Brown and Michael Luzzi ITM in the same card, but this one should be on the engine playing “come catch me”. If he is not pressured, then he wins but there are others in this race that should at least annoy him on the lead.
#7- John’s Island- He is another with a legitimate shot but may want more ground.
Race 9- 6-10-12
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