Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, May 13, 2018
The action has begun at Belmont Park! They’ve got nine races on the schedule for the first Sunday of the meet, with the License Fee Stakes going as the featured event. Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh) will be providing FREE picks & analysis of all the racing action. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter for updated thoughts throughout the program.
Good luck to everyone following along!
Here is the quick version of my picks since I will be on the road celebrating with all the Moms in my life. Hopefully the rain will stay away and make this card worth playing and everyone can have an enjoyable Mother’s day. Make sure to check back with me on changes based on the track condition and scratches. Let’s take some chances. Let’s cash some tickets. Let’s get ‘em. Make sure to follow me on twitter @albundypolkhigh. I often make changes to picks based on surface and the betting board.
Conservative Pick 5 Ticket – 3,6 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 / 4 / 3,4 / 5 = $16
Aggressive Pick 5 Ticket- 1,2,3,4,6 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 / 4 / 2,3,4 / 5,8 = $120
Race 1 – 6-3-1
#6- The Caretaker – It is hard to have a strong opinion about anyone in this first race race. I will side with this horse that has been up against a few bias tracks and has still managed to finish in the money against tougher. Hard to side with a horse that is 1 for 12 with a jock that is currently 1 for 48 but there is not much in this field to beat and there should be enough speed to set up for his closing kick. The tepid choice.
#3- Data Driven- He is by far the horse to beat and the only 3x winner in the race but it is hard to trust coming into this race on the long layoff. He will appreciate if there is any moisture on the track since his best efforts have come on a good and muddy track respectively.
#1- Mr. Fixit – For a horse who has had difficulty making the race track it is encouraging to see him make back to back starts and coming off a win. He should be forwardly place and able to hang on for a piece.
Race 2- 7-1-3
This race has an “all button” look to it. Of the horses that have run, they do not like to win. Of the horses that only have a few races behind them, they look like they might be lifetime maidens. I made selections but spread in the multi-race bets.
Race 3- 4
#4- Engage – I am sure many touts will try to beat this horse but I don’t see it. His only losses have come against National Flag. There is a ton of pace on paper to set up his closing move and he is by far the horse to beat in my opinion. Single here so you can spread elsewhere.
Race 4- 4-3-1
#4- Okeamo – Let’s try for a big boom in this spot. His first race was a learning experience as evident by getting an uneven start at the gate. Since then they have went to the tool box approach by adding lasix and blinkers. The workouts have been solid in the AM and he is one of the few 4yos in the race. It will probably be a typical Rudy / Irad win, but this horse intrigues me at a big price.
#3- Santo Antonio – He looks the best on paper but will offer little value. Play my horse on top to win and then a big exacta / tris with this horse on top and my top pick underneath.
Race 5- 8-5-2
#8- Giant Ending – Doesn’t it seem like Dylan Davis brings in one big price every weekend? Why not this horse at this spot. Dylan should have this horse forwardly placed in a race with not a lot of speed. When he last ran at this level it was a 2nd place finished behind a next out winner. That time it was in the hands of D’Alessandro. Now she goes into the Levine barn so an improvement can be expected. She goes 2nd off the long layoff and the 10-1 ML will assure us value here. Let’s get em.
#5- First Tomoe – She is the horse to beat on speed figures and connections alone. But the huge drop has to be a red flag and I can’t help think that this horse is more of a turf horse.
#2- Desirous – Expect the connections to send this horse and hang on for dear life. Not sure she can win but is a nice play underneath at 8-1.
Race 6- 2-4-5
#2- Dominant Strategy – The board will tell us everything we need to know about this horse who is 4-1 on the ML. If he opens up 5/2 or less, then send it in. If he opens up higher than his ML then he is not live.
#4- Rugbyman – Graham Motion does a great job 2nd time out and you can expect this horse to improve with a little added distance. He is bred to be a good one and the breeding says he won’t be a maiden for long.
#5- First commander – This is the horse I will be wheeling underneath at a price. His first two races were races you can strike a line through and with a clean trip can hit the board to fill out your tris and supers.
Pick 4 Plays – Will be sent after race 5 via twitter.
Race 7- 2-9-6 (Turf Only)
10-2 (Dirt Only)
Race 8- 8-6-9
Race 9- 7-9-12 (Top play of day)
Race 10- 6-1-5
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.