Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, June 18, 2017
There’s a great card at Belmont Park on this Father’s Day, with ten races on schedule, including the grade 3 Poker Stakes, and a pick 6 carryover of almost $200,000. We have FREE picks & analysis from Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh).
Be sure to give Steve a follow on twitter; he’ll be providing his thoughts on the NYRA racing every weekend here on Danonymous. He’ll also be providing picks & analysis of Belmont Stakes day this Saturday!
Take it away, Steven!
My first wager of the day will be on the weather. I have handicapped this card anticipating that all races, except maybe the Grade III, will be off the turf. Please make sure to follow my twitter feed for updated track conditions and selections. I hope to make everyone’s Father’s Day a fun and profitable. Happy Father’s day to all my followers.
Please make sure to follow my twitter feed @albundypolkhigh for updated selections. I usually update my picks throughout the day based on track conditions, scratches and how the track is playing, I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck and Let’s Get Em!
Conservative Pick 5 ticket (Dirt Only) – 2,3,7 / 1,2,4,6 / 2,5 / 7 / 3 = $12
Aggressive Pick 5 ticket (Dirt Only) – ALL / 1,2,4,6 / 2,5 / 7 / 3,7,12 = $96
Race 1- 3-2-7 (Dirt Only)
#3- Rudy’s Boy- I don’t’ have much to say about the first 2YO turf race at NY, which is most likely going to be off the turf. I will side with this 12-1 shot as my top pick simply because he was meant for the dirt while others are clearly meant to ride on the green. He has excuses in his first two races and showed improvement last time out. Why not?
#2- Hemp Hemp Hurray – Shocker. A horse with the name “hemp” in it likes to be on the “green stuff”. Ward is well known for having his firsters ready for action and I expect this one to not be an exception. The double gate move on May 12th and April 19th is something I love to see on a young horse.
#7- Sidd Finch- I expect this one to go for the lead with the addition of blinkers and the switch to a very aggressive jockey. His race first time out was a bit deceiving since he raced very green and had trouble at the gate. With a clean break, it will be interesting to see if this one can run a bit. Spread deep here in the Pick 5.
Race 2- 2-6-5
#2- Jeter – As a Mets fan, it pains me to pick this horse on top. However, I think he is sitting on a big race and the 15-1 ML price is too good to pass up. I’ll take it a step further and say that I can’t see a scenario where this horse does not at least hit the board. His last two times out I can strike a line through those races. In both those races, Bustin It (I am now the owner) was allowed to set his pace and there was not a lot of closing in either. Add into the fact that he was taken out of the race last time out and he has a right to improve. His race three back can beat these and make him a synch to at least hit the board at a monster price.
#6- Erik The Red- This horse is extremely dangerous and is the horse to beat in my opinion. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is creating a name for himself at this meet and has not been afraid to give live mounts to Angel Arroyo. If he can improve this horse off of Gary Contessa (which is very realistic), he should go off the favorite.
#5- Bug Juice – Looking at my top 3 choices feels like I am in a time machine. I am sure at some point 5 years ago these same 3 horses were in a write-up of mine haha. His last win came a couple of months ago. That day he beat a horse named Tasunke Witco who just romped here a couple a days ago.
Race 3- 2-5-1
#2- Divine Miss Grey – Many will single the #5 horse but I think this Danny Gargan trained filly has a shot to upset. It is worth noting that when Danny Gargan gets aggressive with the placement of his horses it is usually a good sign. Last time out this horse won his 3rd race which means this is his only condition left. If he did not think he had a decent horse, he would have put this filly in a lower level claiming race. This filly is getting better each time out and I really like how she was able to close into a slow pace to win last time.
#5- Honor Way- Like most Pletcher horses, this horse is likely to go off at very short odds off her maiden victory last time out. However, Pletcher 3YOs generally do not take the next step forward this time of year. She is the horse to beat but would not be surprised if she only lands a minor check.
#1- Asian Way- Can’t ignore the Level 2 Jail Move here but the trainer change is not a positive one.
Race 4- 7-8 (Dirt Only)
#7- Assertive – If this race is taken off the turf this will be my Pick 5 single. First time out she was only 4 lengths off of Salty who has turned out to be one of the stars in the 3YO Filly class. 2nd time out she finished a decent third behind Holy Helena who has since come back to win again. She should be 1/5 on the dirt.
#8- Eternal Vow- Michael Hushion does wonders with first time starters and this would be the only horse who could take down my top pick if she is a runner.
Race 5- 3-12-7 (Dirt Only)
#3- Minsky Moment – On dirt she is by far the horse to beat off of her impressive 2nd placed finish last time out against Broken Engagement. He was aided a bit by a bias track that helped all horses close to the lead. At the same time, it might have been the reason he lost.
#12- Zonic – I was tempted to put this one on top due to the 12-1 ML price. He exits the same race as my top pick but endured a much tougher trip on that same biased track. The outside post won’t help but 12-1 is a bargain.
#7- Slewcandy – Of all the firsters this is the one that caught my eye. Michelle Nevin is not known for having horses ready first time out but this $285k son has Caleb’s Posse in his bloodlines who did very well sprinting. Watch the board to see if he takes early money. If so, watch out.
Race 6- 2-7
#2- Kirby’s Penny- This looks like a two-horse race so I will land on the Level 3 jail move. It is rare to see Wesley Ward claim a horse so he must have really liked something about this filly. She will also be the better price of the two that seem to have a shot.
#7- Your Love- She looked very impressive in winning her maiden voyage. Any improvement 2nd time out makes her a mortal lock to win.
Pick 4 Play – Dirt Only – 2,4,5,7,9 / 5 / 1,8,9 / 2,14 = $15
Pick 4 Play – Poker Stakes on Turf only – 2,4,5,7,9 / 2,3 / 1,8,9 / 2,14 = $30
Race 7- 4-5-7 (Dirt Only)
#4- Platinum Spark- This filly was 3/2 last time out against some of this company and we will now get a much better price on her today after her disappointing finish last time out. That day she had a bit of a troubled trip and I will forgive her for that one.
#5- Cosi Bella- Her best race was on a sloppy track sprinting. She should receive those conditions today as she is cutting back which should suit her.
#7- Indygita- Always beware of the MTO runner. Her form has been horrific of late but she has back races that will win here.
Race 8- The Poker Stakes
5 (Dirt Only)
3-2 (Turf Only)
#5- Weekend Hideaway – If this race gets rained off the grass then this will be a Grade III workout for this colt. It will be like a free space on a bingo card.
#3- Ballagh Rocks – If they do run on the turf I may still make this a single in the pick 4 in what would look like a two-horse race on paper.
Race 9- 8-9-7
#8- Ready for Rye – I really like this horse entering today. This is also a play against the ML favorite Threefiveindia who looked awful in returning back to the racetrack last time out. He has flat out run against much better and has run well off the long layoff before. It is a little concerning that they are running him in an allowance race first time off the layoff. Sometimes that is a sign that they are using this race as a “prep”. Still he is the horse to beat if ready. Watch how he looks in the paddock.
#9- All Star Red- I can find excuses in all his races going back to the Tobaggan. Still on that day I was shocked he never went past Green Gratto. If he can return back to that race and finish the job he is extremely dangerous.
#7- Hey Jabber Jaw- This horse will be about 60-1 come post time. He should be alone on the lead and if he can set some soft fractions on an off-track, it would not be the worst play to put him at the bottom of your trifectas and supers.
Race 10- 14-2B (Dirt Only)
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