Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Sunday, July 9, 2017
There’s a great card at Belmont Park on this Sunday afternoon, the penultimate one of the meet, with nine races on schedule. We have FREE picks & analysis from Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh).
Be sure to give Steve a follow on twitter; he’ll be providing his thoughts on the NYRA racing every weekend here on Danonymous.
Take it away, Steven!
I had been on quite a roll of late until yesterday’s Stars & Stripes Day. Hopefully I can get back on track today. Let’s get em. Yesterday showed a bit of a turf speed bias yesterday. Look to see if the track is playing similar. If so….adjust.
Please make sure to follow my twitter feed @albundypolkhigh for updated selections. I usually update my picks throughout the day based on track conditions, scratches and how the track is playing, I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck and Let’s Get Em!
Conservative Pick 5 ticket 5 / 2,3,7,10 / 1,5,7/ 2,4 / 3 = $12
Aggressive Pick 5 ticket – 3,5 / 2,3,5,7,10 / 1,3,5,7 / 2,4,7 / 3 = $60
Race 1- 5-4-3
#5- Lifelong Dreamer- The only 3-time winner in the field looks to be the best of a weak bunch. As long as Santana does not get into a speed duel with my 2nd choice she should win this race.
#4- Shadow Surprise – Will be sent to the lead and will try to hold off my top pick. Will have to hold off my top pick down the lane.
#3- Valhalla – In the event that a couple of these fight for the lead on the front end, this is this horse most likely to capitalize.
Race 2- 3-10-7
#3- Breakin Daylight – This is a bit of a guessing game as most of these have never seen the turf before. My top pick is well bred for the green being a half to 200k earner Glory.
#10- Ambassador Jim- Christophe Clement is starting to heat up as he usually does this time of year. Horse has been training well and had plenty of winners on turf in the family. Might be bred for longer however.
#7- Hemp Hemp Hurray- Of course a horse with the name Hemp in it wants to get on “the green”. Also helps that Ward and Velaszquez are hitting at a 47% rate.
Race 3- 1-3-7-5
#1- Grassarla – This will be my first price play of the day at her 10-1 ML odds. Despite running 6 career races, I can draw a line through each of them with a legit excuse in each. If she can break cleanly she has a legit shot to blow up the tote board. I love the elder vs. younger angle and as we get ready for Saratoga, one angle that is a must follow is Chris Englehart going turf to dirt.
#3- This Bird Can Sing – I hate putting horses on top who love hitting the board but don’t like to win. She can win but not endorsing at a short price.
#7- Wanna Be Regal – Can improve 2nd time out.
Race 4- 2-4-7
#2- Conquest Lucknlove – First time Jason Servis with a speed horse on a track that has been favoring speed? Sign me up. The cut back should help despite going 0 for 11 in her career.
#4- Laniakea- Clement is hitting at 42% when taking horses from MSW to MCL ranks. You can’t ignore video game stats like that. Another who should benefit from how the track is playing and the cutback.
#7- Jeanne’s Speight- Linda Rice does wonders first off the claim. It is interesting she pointed this one back to the turf.
Pick 5 Ticket (NYRABETS) – 3 / 6,9 / 3,5 / 1,3,4,5,6,8,9 / 2,5,6,7 = $56
Race 5- 3-4-1-9
#3- Rubilinda – Grab some popcorn and get to enjoy the next female turf star before your eyes. Yes, she is that good. Single with confidence.
#4- Culpa Mia- If you are looking to play this race, you might get some value in exactas and trifectas using this horse. Her lone turf try was not that bad and placed just behind Bellavias who has turned out to be a very nice horse.
#1- Eloweasel – She is going 2ndoff the long layoff which is a nice angle. It helps she is an elder racing against younger and her form is better than it looks on paper. She has been on the wrong end of trying to close into very slow paces.
#9- Cherry Lodge – This one-time Derby hopefully is going first out on the turf for Todd Pletcher. I am usually not a fan of taking short priced horses trying something for the first time.
Race 6- 6-9-10
#6- Cloontia – I am really high on this horse. I think her last race was a bit of a prep as she stretches out a bit more here. Looking at her past performances, some of her best races were when she races at this distance after “prepping” at a mile distance in a prior race. She has tactical speed which should help on this track and she loves the Belmont course.
#9- Homewood Field – The connections alone will make this one a very short price. She is the likely winner at will probably be even money.
#10- Black Tide- He will play “come catch me” on the lead. Watch what Oscar Performance did yesterday to see what the plan is for this horse. Can wire at a price.
Race 7- 3-5-4
#3- American Gal – I know her speed numbers are a bit light and leaving the Bob Baffert barn isn’t a good sign but she has faced far better competition than what she will face today. I think she has a bit of a class edge on this field.
#5- Vertical Oak- Hard to knock a horse who just won the Grade III Ms. Preakness. I think she is just not in the same class as my top pick.
#4- Noble Freud – She has had excuses in her last two. Can improve a bit here.
Race 8 – 3-8-6
#3- Quiet Business – I think this race has price written all over it. I am not a huge fan of Summersault (mostly because he knocked me out of a big Pick 5 at Aqueduct a few years ago). I will take a shot with the best routing turf rider there is in the country in my opinion. The horse love this distance and is going 3rd off the layoff. #6- Evidenty is also another big price I want to use. Her last couple of rides were ridiculous and Manny Franco is riding as good as anyone of late at NYRA.
Race 9- 6-2-5
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