Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, September 30, 2017
We’re heading out to Belmont Park for a ten-race card on Saturday. Four stakes headline the action, including the Beldame Stakes (featuring Elate), the Vosburgh Stakes (featuring Mr. Crow and El Deal), the Joe Hirsch (featuring Oscar Performance), and the Pilgrim Stakes. The first race is a bit earlier than usual; at 12:30 PM EDT.
We’ve got Mike Mahon (@MikeMahonPA) providing free picks & analysis of all the racing action. Mike handicapped Saturdays at Saratoga this meet, and we’re happy to have him in the same role at Belmont.
Take it away, Mike!
Belmont Park, Saturday, September 30. A huge set of stakes closes the card, starting at 4:04pET. My list of three things to do this afternoon include 1. Don’t lose too much dough in the first six races 2. Win a bunch of dough in the first six races so I can 3. Win a bunch of dough in the late Pick 4. Ohhh, what a great day that would be. Heeeeere we gooo………..
This afternoon’s card kicks off with a crapshoot. I’ll go with 7 River Deep because he’s a speed horse coming off a layoff. I’m looking at this like a “maybe” play if I don’t get stuck in traffic on my way to the track.
6, 10 to win
6 Abbot and 10 One Eyed Ray are both stepping up and stretching out. I’m not sure if either one can step up or stretch out, but at least their trainers are showing some ambition.
7 to win
7 w 1
This is a very intriguing race featuring a field of very lightly run maidens. 7 Verve’s Humor comes from a strong bloodline and should go off a lot shorter than the 12/1 odds suggested on the morning line. 1 Roaming Union may be able to stretch and I’ll put him underneath.
1 to win
1 w 2
I really like 1 Hot and Heavy here, and he’s my first super strong play of the day. I’m thinking he might be the best value play of the day. He’s making a big jump up in class coming off a claim, and now he’s got The Mouch on top! His last work was a bullet and if he’s hosting a bandwagon I’ll be the first one to jump on. Additionally, he’s a speed horse on the rail, and the first turn is fairly close to the gate.
8 Lunaire is a solid performer who seems resistant to winning, which is fine with me because I’m looking for an exacta wager. You can make all the excuses you want for 3 Funtastic’s lackluster performance last out, but I’m not touching him anywhere near his 2/1 morning line. If he’s 5/1, I may throw him underneath in an exacta or trifecta.
1 to win
1 w 6 w 8
This race belongs to 1 Harlan Punch. He’s so great. After that I’ll play 6 Always a Suspect and 8 Alex the Terror.
8 w 4/7 w 4/7
8 Consumerconfidence is dropping a bit in class back to 40k after jumping up to 50. This level seems to suit him. 7 Mai Ty One On is also dropping, but has left a lot to be desired in his last few outs. I like 4 Jegos Fire, but don’t think he can win. You’ll either see him coming on for a strong third, or eking into second.
PICK 4 (Begins at 4:04pm Eastern)
I don’t often play the Pick 4, but after looking through this set of stakes races I gotta think it’s pretty wide open and there could be a fairly lucrative payout.
4/5 w 6 w 1 w 1/4
2/4/5 w 5/6 w 1/3 w 1/4/5
Race 7, Grade 1 Vosburgh Stakes, 6 Furlongs
2/4/5 (I’ll play the top two or three exacta payouts amongst these three)
5 w 4 w 1/2
This one’s gonna be a lot of fun to watch – a lot of speed in a fairly short sprint. Try not to blink or you might miss it……
As much as everybody’s favorite rabbit, 3 Green Gratto, would like to set unsustainable pace, he’ll probably get crushed again by 2 El Deal. 5 Mr. Crow It will be an interesting pace scenario with 4 Takaful thrown into the mix. He’s been on fire off the layoff, and it’s a question of whether this is sustainable. As much as I’d prefer the 5/1 morning line on 4 Takaful, 5 Mr. Crow will most likely prove the best. There’s no doubt 1 Stallwalkin’ Dude will make his way into the money.
Race 8, Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes, 1 1/16 (Inner Turf) for Two-Year Olds
6 w 4/5 w 1
It doesn’t look like there’s any front-end speed to speak of here. It’s unclear to me who exactly might benefit in this case, but look for a pretty competitive burst down the backstretch.
6 Maraud has proven he can run on this surface at this distance. He’s a little short at 5/2, but seems pretty reasonable considering it’s a field of eight rookies. 5 Voting Control sustained well at the mile distance in his first and only out, and we’ll have to see if he can stretch. Look for 4 Seabhac coming on down the stretch, though I don’t think he’ll hit the wire first unless there’s a pace meltdown. 1 Desert Stone is a strong trifecta play.
Race 9, Grade 1 Beldame Stakes, 1 1/8 Furlongs
1 w 3
1 w 2/7 w 2/7
It looks like there’s a lot of speed in this one, and that should benefit the heavy favorite 1 Elate – watch for her to sit back and hit the pedal down the backstretch. She’s by far the classiest gal of the group. She should be able to handle this crowd even if she needs to swing out a little wide. She’s probably the safest play of the day, and def the one to single in the late Pick 4, but unfortunately will pay accordingly.
5 Money’soncharlotte is on an upswing, and could prove second best. I’d be a little surprised if she’s first, and I’d be really surprised if she’s not second or third. 3 Bishop’s Pond took a liking to the dirt last out, and could be a compelling play here. At 15/1, I’ll place a small win wager and throw him into my exotics. 7 Eskenformoney and 2 Verve’s Tale should also be competing in the mix.
Race 10, Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, 1 1/2 mile (Turf)
4 w 1 w 5
This is a pretty big field. 1 Money Multiplier has never managed to multiply my money, so I’m averse to playing him here. I like 4 Sadler’s Joy because he’s running well and really impressed me in the Sword Dancer, a race I’m partial to because I loved Flintshire and Sadler’s Joy won it last year. I think last year’s field might have been a little more competitive, so I’ll roll with the repeat. There’s a (very) slight possibility 5 Beach Patrol could wire this field. There’s a more realistic possibility that he’ll either set or press the pace, and end up drifting back to third or fourth at the wire. He’s got what we sharpies call “seconditis.”
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