Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, October 6, 2018
There’s another big day of action at Belmont Park this Saturday. There’s four graded stakes races, highlighted by the Beldame Stakes and the Champagne Stakes The first race on the 11-race program is scheduled for 12:30 PM EDT.
We’ve got FREE picks & analysis of all the action from Mike Mahon (@MikeMahonPA). We thank Mike for sharing his analysis with us today, and wish you good luck if you’re playing along.
Take it away, Mike!
Race 1, 6 Furlongs, Allowance $66,000
6, 2, 4
We open up the card with a short field of seasoned sprinters. 2 Starlite Mission and 6 Out of Orbit are hefty favorites. Of the two, Out of Orbit should lead most of the way. Due to the slim field, Starlite Mission should have more than enough room to navigate with no need to go out wide, which seemed to slow her down a bit in her last try. 3 Dark Tricks is an interesting play – she seems to gun it a little too much a little too early. She’s not a bad play to single if you feel like gambling early.
Race 2, 1 1/16 Mile (Turf), Maiden $75,000
10, 11, 12
2 Hubba Bubba ran steadily in a similar route a few weeks ago. He should be in the mix, but not a win contender. 11 Throw Down can land in the money, but I don’t see him winning. Not for nothing, 3 North Dakota seems like a lazy name. It will be interesting to see how 12 Empire of War transitions to the turf – his dam has 4 winners from 5 starters, but only one of which was on the grass. He likes to get out front and may struggle to do so from the outside post. I’ll go with 10 Country House because I like what Mott’s done so far this meet, and CH has been training pretty well.
Race 3, 6 Furlongs, Maiden $62,500
1, 6, 8
I like 1 Show Prince here because is dam has 3 winners from 4 starters, he has good works and he draws the rail. I like him even more if he goes off anywhere near his 12/1 ML odds. 6 Kadens Courage showed significant improvement his second try, but I’m inclined to thinking he’s a money runner not a winner. I’ll admit I lose a lot of money, but I can never bring myself to play such short odds on a first time runner like 9 I Am Spartacus.
Race 4, 1 1/8 Mile (Inner Turf), Optional Claiming $80,000
1, 2, 3, 7
1 Bird’s Eye View may be the only runner in this field that wants to get out front. 5 Zinger may try to keep up, but he’s outclassed and will eventually fade. The favorites 2 Breaking the Rules and 3 Classic Covey are deceptively competent, but I don’t think they’re true win contenders. They come in with pretty short odds, and I’d prefer to take a shot at a better payout.
Race 5, 6 Furlongs, Allowance $77,000
6, 4, 3
Kind of a slim field here, with a lot of early speed. 4 Wisconsin Night should set the pace. I don’t want to suggest he’ll kill himself, but there will be a lot of pressing close behind him and I think he’ll eventually drift back. Look for 6 Bluegrass Jamboree to take over down the stretch. 3 Big Birthday should land in the money.
Race 6, 6 Furlongs (Turf), Maiden $75,000
11, 5, 8
11 Honey Parade should make it in the money, if not on top. 5 Adamant is an interesting play. I’ll take a shot with 8 Getmotherarose underneath.
Race 7, 6 Furlongs (Inner Turf), Belmont Turf Sprint $150,000
6, 7, 1
I don’t excel at mathematics, which probably handicaps my handicapping, but there seems to be an inordinate number of short odds in a decent sized field. 6 Proforma looks like he’s on an uptick and brings a good price at 6/1. 7 Pocket Change is surprisingly better than his record represents. If he gets a good trip here, which would be sitting back early with room to make a move, he could place. 1 Disco Partner sounds like he’d be a lot of fun to party with, but he hasn’t convinced me he’d be a lot of fun to bet on at 2/1.
Race 8, 1 1/8 Mile, Beldame Stakes (Grade 1) $400,000
3, 6, 4, 2
6 Wow Cat is another vulnerable favorite. She’s won a lot overseas, but hasn’t fared too well on this side of the pond. 3 Divine Miss Grey is in peak form, and gives no indication of wanting to slow down. 2 Teresa Z may be worth an underneath shot if you’re playing the superfecta.
Race 9, 1 1/8 Mile (Inner Turf), Hill Prince Stakes (Grade 2) $500,000
6, 8, 1
Do you think 6 Raging Bull watches the movie Raging Bull to get pumped up before he runs? Do you think he’s confused that his name is a bull and he’s unaware that he’s actually a horse? I don’t want to get in his way today, and there’s no way I’d bet against him in this field. 8 Ride a Comet has been running well. He prefers to press, and might not be able to make up enough ground to win but should show. Look out for 1 Have At It – he can go this distance, but may not belong in this class. He’s a good underneath play.
Race 10, 1 Mile, Champagne Stakes (Grade 1) $500,000
2, 7, 9
Oh yeah! This isn’t for Derby points, but it’s fun to start speculating. 2 Trophy Chaser ran a blistering 102 last out and won by 15 lengths in just 6 short furlongs. He’s stretching out to a mile, but only two other runners have gone this distance. 9 Aurelius Maximus won by over 7 lengths at a mile. Both of these contestants are front runners, though I’m inclined to thinking that most young horses tend to get out front early. 7 Successful Zip has also gone a mile. I’m somewhat baffled by his 20/1 ML odds, and can’t imagine he’ll go off at even half those odds – he may be rewarded for his patience this afternoon. He came on from behind last and ran out of runway.
Race 11, 6 Furlongs (Turf), Allowance $66,000
1, 2, 11
And so we round out the card with a healthy field of 12 contestants. Expect a lot of front-end speed clustered around the first turn. 1 Saratoga Treasure should ride the rail and linger behind the bunch before making a big run down the stretch. 2 Hollywood Cat should also be patient enough to make a move.
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