Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Saturday, June 16, 2018
The storm of Belmont Stakes weekend is over, but the party doesn’t stop in Elmont, New York. There’s a ten-race program out there today, featuring the Dancing Renee Stakes for New York-breds. The first race will go at 1:30 PM EDT.
We’ve got Mike Mahon (@MikeMahonPA) with picks & analysis of the program. Mike’s been writing about New York racing for a while now, and we’re happy to have him covering the Belmont meet. Give him a follow on twitter if you can.
Good luck, and take it away, Mike!
Race 1, 1 Mile, Claiming $12,500
5 w 2,3
I’ll put 5 Ritzy Lass on top here because I think she should be able to get out front. I don’t see her being challenged too much too early. 2 Arewehavingfunyet drops down in class two off a claim, after trying a single race with his new connections at a higher level on turf. It looks like she’d prefer to stay off the grass, and it looks like they’re okay taking the $3,500 loss. 3 Timely Tradition is another contestant dropping down in class, but it really doesn’t look like she can run on the dirt.
Race 2, 7 Furlongs (Turf), Optional Claiming $40,000
3 w 1,6
3 Changewilldoyagood may benefit from the cutback in distance. He hasn’t excelled at a mile or above, but generally is able to get out front before exhausting himself. If he’s able to tone it down just a little bit he should find himself in the winners’ circle. 6 Mission Command may improve off the layoff; not enough to win, but worth a shot in the trifecta. 1 Dr. Shane can contest but just doesn’t know how to win. Definitely use in your exotics.
Race 3, 6 Furlongs, Maiden Claiming $30,000
1 w 5
1 Princess Maeve improved enough last out to at least show she wants to sprint on the dirt. She should be in the mix this afternoon. I’ll take a shot with the first-time starter 5 Sweet Green underneath, and potentially as a win play depending on her odds two minutes to post. 2 Reata’s Reward is far too short despite the massive drop in class. She has the potential to wire this group, but I’m not playing an 0 for 3 runner at 6/5.
Race 4, 1 1/16 Mile (Inner Turf), Allowance Optional Claiming $62,500
1, 4 to win
4 Lion in Wait could potentially get loose on the lead here. If she breaks clean and positions herself out front before the first turn, she’ll be difficult to catch. If she’s not able to do, most likely 1 Dolce Lili will be able to sit off a moderate pace and sneak in before the wire.
Race 5, 1 1/16 Mile (Turf), Maiden $75,000
7 w 2,10
1 End of Spirits has improved off the layoff, which includes a switch to the grass. I’m not entirely convinced he’s ready to win. I’ll take a moderate shot with 2 Letterman, based mainly on works and a bloodline that likes the turf. 10 Tiz Morning is another potential longshot that may be worth consideration. He stretching out and switching over to the grass, but he’s bred well for the latter. Ultimately I’ll go with Johnny V here, and put 7 More Than a Saint on top at 10/1.
Race 6, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Claiming $12,500
8 w 5
8 Missle Bomb has been running well and should continue his winning streak. 5 Nominal Dollars has shown moderate improvement since being claimed, and looks to maybe lose by a little bit less this afternoon.
Race 7, 6 Furlongs (Inner Turf), Claiming $25,000
8 w 10
Why does everyone keep claiming 12 Saratoga Heater if he barely ever wins? Maybe they just like the name. 10 Dancetrack won his last out and was claimed for the same amount as the tag he’s wearing today. I don’t think he can do it again today, mainly because 8 Anytime Anyplace should be uncatchable out front. His last outs have been lackluster, but he switches back to the grass off a long layoff. 4 Canarsie Kid could lead most of the way, and eventually fold.
Race 8, 1 Mile (Turf), Allowance $77,000
11 w 4 w 10
Interestingly, I’m not seeing a single “been there, done that” runner in the mix – none of them have won at a mile distance in a $77k Allowance. 11 Hembree has enjoyed moderate success in somewhat similar situations, so I’ll play him but not invest a lot of dough. 10 Fire On Fire could be worth a play underneath if you’re looking to spruce up a trifecta. 12 The JY is a tempting play because I won some bread on him three back when he was a first-time gelding, but he’s outclassed here. 4 Catch a Cab has shown steady improvement as he’s climbed the ranks. 6 Slot is worth a second look, but he’s never run on the grass.
Race 9, 6 Furlong, Dancin Renee Stakes, $125,000
5 w 4
6 Bobby’s Song is making a pretty aggressive jump in class, but 4 Still There has put up more impressive numbers and deserves her shorter odds. 7 Absatootly is an unpredictable contestant, and none of his best performances have come first off a layoff. He could set a hot pace, which would set up nicely for the heavy favorite 5 Holiday Disguise.
Race 10, 6 Furlongs (Inner Turf), Maiden Claiming $40,000
11 to win
11 Causforcelebration keeps inching closer and wants to win, and should get over the hump this afternoon. 6 Casa Rae ran well early last on out. He’s not a win contender, but worth putting underneath. 12 Step to the Bank could be a strong play in the trifecta.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE. PICKS & ANALYSIS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE MERELY OPINIONS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. PICKS DO NOT GUARANTEE ANY SUCCESSFUL OUTCOMES WHATSOEVER. PICKS ARE PROVIDED TO GUIDE YOUR STRATEGY TO PLAYING THE RACES. MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS SITE ARE IN NO WAY INTENDED TO ENCOURAGE GAMBLING. WHERE LEGAL, ALL WAGERS SHOULD BE MADE RESPONSIBLY AND ARE DONE SO AT YOUR OWN RISK.