Free Picks & Analysis — Who Do Ya Like?
Monday, July 3, 2017
It’s a special holiday Monday of racing at Belmont Park today, with nine races on the schedule. The headliner is the State Dinner Stakes, which drew a competitive field of nine, and will go as the eighth race.
We’ve got FREE picks & analysis of all the action from Steven Schwartz (@albundypolkhigh)! Steven’s our usual Sunday handicapper at Belmont, and in fact owned the winner of yesterday’s sixth race, Bustin It. Be sure to give Steven a follow on twitter. Take it away!
Going to keep this short and sweet on this beautiful Monday of racing. Enjoy your BBQ’s and Belmont.
Please make sure to follow my twitter feed @albundypolkhigh for updated selections. I usually update my picks throughout the day based on track conditions, scratches and how the track is playing, I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck and Let’s Get Em!
Conservative Pick 5 ticket 2,6,7,8 / 3,8 / 2,4,5 / 2 / 2 = $12
Aggressive Pick 5 ticket – All / 3,6,8 / 2,4,5 / 2,7 / 1,2 = $144
Race 1- 6-8-7
#6- Pontastic – One of two 4yos in a race with 3yos is often a good angle. His races from over the winter easily beat these.
#8- Giant Brownie- His speed numbers are a bit light but going into the Rudy barn is a good thing. First time gelding with Ortiz might wake up.
#7- Casino King- Projected to be on or near the lead in a race that is lacking early foot. The other elder in the race has had excuses in his last two races.
Race 2- 3-8-6
#3- Frosty Lady – She should be alone on the lead. I do not like the drop in class but Servis is hitting at 42% going first off the claim.
#8- Chow Fun- She needed her last race coming off a year layoff. Last time was a prep as evident by her sprinting when she really wants to go longer. David Canizzzo hits at 30% 2nd off a long layoff.
#6- Graceful Gal- Her form is inconsistent but she has some back class and speed figures that make her a contender at a price.
Race 3- 7-4-2
#7- Funtastic- This first time starter for Chad Brown has plenty of pedigree to think he can run at first asking. Does not have to beat much here if he can run even a bit.
#4- D’ambrosio- I want to give him another chance after his first race in which he raced wide on a track that you wanted to be near the lead and on the inside. McLaughlin can improve horses stretching out going 2nd time out. Price play.
#2- Perfect Partner- He has been picture shy in his short career.
Race 4- 2-7-3
#2- Quezon- Much the best on paper. She loves the track and this distance. As long as my 2nd choice doesn’t walk around the track, it is her race to lose.
#7- Momameamaria – She is projected to be alone on the lead. She may not be fast enough, but if no one challenges her she has a shot.
#3- Rachel’s Temper- David Canizzo’s “other” runner. You have to wonder if #7 was entered into the race to set things up for this horse.
Race 5- 2- 1-4
#2- Snap Decision- This stakes placed son of Hard Spun looks much the best on paper. He has been a beaten favorite the past two races but this group is much easier.
#1- Pagliacci- Throw out Lezcano routing on the turf at your own risk. He will be sending this horse to the lead in a race that lacks early zip. If he gets away he can win.
#4- Escape Velocity- Won his lone effort but will have to improve off that effort to run with the top two selections.
Pick 4 ticket – 1,3,5,6 / 2,7 / 2,4,7,8 / 3,5,7,8 = $64
Race 6- 6-3-1
#6- Heavenly Grace- Ralph Nicks is not known to have horses ready off long layoffs but this horse deserves a 2nd look after running 3rd first time out against some tough fillies. A better trip should have this one ready at a price.
#3- Posse needed- It is great to see Junior Alvarado back. It is only a matter of time before he starts winning at a huge percentage and this horse has improved each time out. Another step forward will be a winning one.
#1- Privy Council- Lone elder in the race towers over this field on speed figures and who she has run against in previous races. I tend to shy away from Pletcher elders.
Race 7- 2-7-1
#2- La Sola Ranger- This will be my price play of the day at her 8-1 ML odds. Her Beyer figures are light but her races were visually impressive. She has the right to improve off the win for Mark Casse who is 20% on that move.
#7- Church Social- She is the horse to beat based off of her last few races in which she had some rough trips. Last time out she had to go 7-wide. The race before that she had a troubled trip. A clean trip will be a winning one.
#1- Grateful- She has never been out of the trifecta in her 5 lifetime races.
Race 8- 8-4-7
#8- Touchofstarquality- This will be one of my plays of the day and single in the pick 4. Failed favorite in this race last year will look to finally get his 1st stakes win.
#4- Hard Study- This might be the right bet based on price. He is a perfect 2 for 2 on this course and is getting better each time out. Another improvement and we are looking at a Graded Stakes horse.
#7- Virtual Machine- Toss out his race in the Met Mile and he fits with this group. Could blow up the toteboard at a big price.
Race 9- 5-8-3